ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[TheBurn]

[cperez1594]

Morning everyone from South Texas. I am looking at the Satellite and is it me or my eyes but do I see a little job to the Northwest?

[KWT]

I wouldn't say it was a high percentage chances even with the current look this system has Hurakan, but for sure a major isn't out of the question given the current trends!

[plasticup]

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/2781/latestl.jpg

I will be surprised if it doesn't become a major hurricane before landfall

No doubt it will be heading that way, but will it have time before landfall? I didn't think so, but he looks to have gotten a jump start this morning. I was skeptical of the Cat 3+ scenarios, but I'm starting to come around. I think I'm with you on this one.

[Chacor]

987 hPa is remarkably low for a 55 knot storm. Igor was 995 hPa at 60 knots. The pressure's there, the winds are just starting to catch up.

[HURAKAN]

Small systems can really spin up. That's why I think it will be a major hurricane. It's already at 65 mph and has another 36 to 48 hours in warm SST and low shear. Very easily to achieve another 50 mph.

[HURAKAN]

124700 1947N 09233W 8436 01413 9940 +150 +144 045072 073 065 027 00


73 FL and 65 SFMR ... could be approaching hurricane intensity

[Aric Dunn]

Should be upgraded... soon 65 unflagged sfmr

124700 1947N 09233W 8436 01413 9940 +150 +144 045072 073 065 027 00
124730 1949N 09234W 8431 01434 9959 +148 +139 050072 073 061 017 00

[plasticup]

Yep, looks like he is crushing the NHC intensity forecast. Will they start issuing intermediate advisories this far from landfall or is that only within 24 hours?

[HurricaneBelle]

Yep, looks like he is crushing the NHC intensity forecast. Will they start issuing intermediate advisories this far from landfall or is that only within 24 hours?

Watches/warnings are up, so there will be intermediates.

[AussieMark]

Yep, looks like he is crushing the NHC intensity forecast. Will they start issuing intermediate advisories this far from landfall or is that only within 24 hours?

I am sure as long as someone is under a storm watch or warning of any kind they issue intermediate advisories

[KWT]

Yep may need yet another special update to upgrade this to a hurricane...

Wind will catch up with the pressure very rapidly in this type of system...

Hurakan, thats fair enough, my own forecast isn't really much below a major to be honest at 90-95kts...would be the first major hurricane to form this far south in the BoC...

[Vortmax1]

Pressure is still dropping...985.8 mb...winds are up...65 knots!

[Aric Dunn]

Yep may need yet another special update to upgrade this to a hurricane...

Wind will catch up with the pressure very rapidly in this type of system...

Hurakan, thats fair enough, my own forecast isn't really much below a major to be honest at 90-95kts...would be the first major hurricane to form this far south in the BoC...

It will likely make it to major. It has plenty of time over water, low shear very warm sst's and its rather small.

[Chacor]

I doubt they would issue another special advisory now. If they were to upgrade, they'd just issue an update statement and do the regular advisory at 11. The only justification at this stage for a special would be rapid strengthening (say, 55 to 75 kt in two hours). Anything else like track changes can go in a regular advisory.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure down to 984 and eyewall open NE.. but there is a eyewall.. they should upgrade.

URNT12 KNHC 161300
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132010
A. 16/12:42:40Z
B. 19 deg 39 min N
092 deg 22 min W
C. 850 mb 1299 m
D. 53 kt
E. 129 deg 27 nm
F. 206 deg 51 kt
G. 119 deg 9 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 15 C / 1518 m
J. 20 C / 1524 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. OPEN NNE
M. E03/20/15
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0313A KARL OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 12:47:10Z

[cwachal]

I can see this making it to 90 knts by the end of today at this rate

[KWT]

Yeah they will likely upgrade this one given the advisory isn't that far away really...

65kts seems reasonable based on the surface estimates and pretty decent flight level winds as well.

[TheBurn]

[cwachal]

Yeah they will likely upgrade this one given the advisory isn't that far away really...

65kts seems reasonable based on the surface estimates and pretty decent flight level winds as well.

If they do wait till 11 to upgrade then it will probably more like 70-75 knts as that still gives Karl 2 hours to strenthen