ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Frank2]

That isn't the trough and possible cutoff system. The one aforementioned comes with another surge behind this one over the weekend, a secondary cold front. Matthew seems to have moved too quickly to time itself with that trough as people have thought.

Thanks for that comment to what I was seeing - I've been too busy today to look at the big picture (lol), though another poster mentioned that the secondary front is currently in Montana - that's a long way from Matthew...

The other poster asked about reformation (offshore) and someone asked that on TWC this morning, but we know that tropical systems are unique in that they do not do what northeaster's do when energy is transferred from a weakening inland low to a low forming off the coast - once a tropical cyclone moves inland it's like a fish out of water...

Frank

[PTrackerLA]

Matthew looks to spend a large amount of time over land and I doubt it even makes it into the gulf of Honduras. I expect to see major poofage tomorrow but unfortunately devastating floods will likely occur in the areas it impacts. Euro already wants to take part II (Nicole?) east of Florida so maybe, just maybe, Florida and the US will luck out again with this situation.

[ospreygrad]

Euro already wants to take part II (Nicole?) east of Florida so maybe, just maybe, Florida and the US will luck out again with this situation.

Well, I certainly hope you are right.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Shuriken]

Circulation is huge. now...you can forget about poofage.

---

12 years ago....

[PTrackerLA]

Circulation is huge. now...you can forget about poofage.

You should read the NHC discussion.

[Shuriken]

I did; referred to it lest page.

[ocala]

Here is a web briefing about Matthew form NWS Jville.
Basically sums up everything that has been mentioned in this thread.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBrie ... /index.htm

[ConvergenceZone]

Are we to the point yet where we should say, "next?" regarding the next storm in line? or does anyone actually think that matthew still has a small chance to become a depression again once it moves off shore in several days?

[hurricanefloyd5]

did matthew wobble to the nw or is it moving westward still??????????

[caneseddy]

Are we to the point yet where we should say, "next?" regarding the next storm in line? or does anyone actually think that matthew still has a small chance to become a depression again once it moves off shore in several days?

I'm about 80% certain will wash out over CA, so we can say next to this...and wait for Nicole next week

[ConvergenceZone]

Are we to the point yet where we should say, "next?" regarding the next storm in line? or does anyone actually think that matthew still has a small chance to become a depression again once it moves off shore in several days?

I'm about 80% certain will wash out over CA, so we can say next to this...and wait for Nicole next week

We don't even know if Nicole is going to even form from all this mess though right? It might just be a case of Matthew dying and that is it....

[Saints]

I did; referred to it lest page.

Matthew is kaput....big time going to be done....no worries.

MY PERSONAL OPINION AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE NHC.

[caneseddy]

Are we to the point yet where we should say, "next?" regarding the next storm in line? or does anyone actually think that matthew still has a small chance to become a depression again once it moves off shore in several days?

I'm about 80% certain will wash out over CA, so we can say next to this...and wait for Nicole next week

We don't even know if Nicole is going to even form from all this mess though right? It might just be a case of Matthew dying and that is it....

It could be just Matthew, but almost all the models (if not all) depict a new system forming from all this mess and moving towards Florida next week; even AFM and Wxman have hinted at something coming towards Florida next week

[Shuriken]

Are we to the point yet where we should say, "next?" regarding the next storm in line?

No. Never, ever write off a WNW-moving low near Central America, no matter how awful looking they get or even if they're "de-listed"; they have a nasty habit of maintaining themselves until they pop out in the Bay of Campeche and head north.

We've already had two cases this year of storms that looked better moving off the Yucatan than they did going in.

[cpdaman]

the jacksonville slide show/ discussion posted above ...is just about all one needs to listen to.

GREAT Link!!!

[Nimbus]

We have been lucky with Mathew so far. If Mathew stays over the Yucatan for a while he should spin up much slower once back over the gulf. I'm curious what the shear forecast will be at that time?

[supercane]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 242035
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...MATTHEW MOVED INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 83.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Snippet from the discussion:

MATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
ABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN
THE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY
DEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...
BUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 14.7N 83.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.2N 85.6W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.0N 91.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Blown Away]

TAFB seems to be showing the new low in 72 hours? Interesting map?

[sfwx]

It certainly isn't "NEXT" for the people in CA and parts of Mexico for MANY days to come!!! This could be devastating for them so let's hold off on the "NEXT" talk for awhile and be a little more compassionate...

Eric