ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[drezee]

Its dead....Bones, where art thou?

[xironman]

Yeah, it dead for now. But Bones does not like it when patients wake up in the morgue. HWRF eventually regenerates it.

[Frank2]

Nothing left but high clouds - I wouldn't call this a "strong" tropical wave, since in the old days "a strong tropical wave" was a term only used when the system was just below depression status - newbies...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[lrak]

Another burst beginning at 15n 60w.

[Nederlander]

never counting this thing out until i see absolutely nothing on vis or wv... but anyhow, its looking ugly today.. it must have got into some stronger shear overnight and it just couldnt handle it.. i know a lot of us were dumbfounded as to why the nhc left this as a yellow, but now you have your reason.. they cant just pull the trigger and move back and forth based on flare ups of convection.. this system is a fighter but its facing a gauntlet... unfortunately looks like the best chance for development is nw carib. or southern GOM if theres anything left of it.. something we dont need right now.. as enthusiastic as i am about tropical weather, im willing to let this thing go poof now.. ive seen what 92 L can do in harsh conditions, i can only imagine what it can do in ripe conditions..

[Blown Away]

Visible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

IMO, any hint of a LLC is near 16.2N / 62.8W and we will have to see if the recent convection to the north near 18N starts to pull closer towards the center???

[cycloneye]

The latest.

Nothing too threatening for the islands right now,only scattered showers with some thunder and a few gusts but I can say as of right now,the Leewards have dodged a bullet in terms of having much more bad weather from this than what they are having.

[tolakram]

You can see on the latest MIMIC-TPW how the circulation, such that it was, has fallen apart rather rapidly.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Sanibel]

Climatology vastly disfavors anything crossing into the Caribbean and forming on this track in these conditions.


Last year and the year before taught hard lessons on reading systems by their convection.

[Joseph Palmer]

There's something about 92L that reminds me of those videos where an adorable child nudges a bowling ball down the middle of the lane, and it rolls and rolls and rolls and... you've seen the ending.

[canes04]

Don't count him out yet. Shear is relaxing and d-max should get him going again tonight.
I'm watching the area around 16.3N & 63W, could still have a broad low there.

[curtadams]

Very borderline for an invest IMO. I can't see anything now myself. CMC and HWRF have it as an off-and-on TDish thing wandering across the Greater Antilles. Since they're both pretty bullish, that's less model support than you usually see for an invest. Add in the climatology and all that shear, and it looks a lot less likely than 20%.

[cycloneye]

IMO NHC at the 2 PM TWO will lower the % to 0.

[Lowpressure]

I am still impressed with how far this system tracked for June. It fought harsh conditions and we followed it for several days now.

[cycloneye]

Reporting observations from the island of Dominica.

http://stormcarib.com/

By Conan Shillingford <nichs at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 15:14:41 +0000

Greetings to all!

Well the Indomitable 92 L has been relentless in reaching the islands and very early this morning it paid the Nature Isle a visit.
It was a rather impressive display of thunderstorm cell activity and many bright flashes of lightning illuminated what was at times a rain darkened sky.
Some parts of the island like near Roseau where Tommie girl is seems to have gotten more of the wind gusts. Here in the North the Atlantic Ocean has been churning and there have been a few brief gusts -but for now there is mostly the occasional thunder clap and ongoing moderate to heavy showers. However, the rain has been coming down in spurts, though I've heard that in other parts of the island so far it seems to have been near continuous -so we'll have to be vigilant for landslides and minor flooding as the day goes on.
I hope everyone stays safe on the island and if travel is not essential, then today proves to be the ideal day for book-reading or some other pleasurable indoor activity...

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

92L

[Blown Away]

IMO, any hint of the circulation center is near 17N/63.5W, or just under the convection near 18N and appears to be moving more NW. May have to issue a 92L warning for Luis if the NW movement continues!

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%

Wow,some life left.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

May have to issue a 92L warning for Luis if the NW movement continues!

I am putting shutters in all the windows,went to Home Depot to buy other things related.

Joking aside,to think this is only June and seeing this system organized in the Eastern Atlantic and the track it has taken speaks volumes about what will the peak of the season will bring.