ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Air Force Met]

Recon so far isn't really even hinting at a west wind, would have to be a very small and weak LLC if it currenty exists.

It pretty much has to exist. They have NW winds...and they have south winds. It is almost impossible (not entirely...but almost) to do a streamline analysis with a south wind and a NW wind and not have a closed low. You have to be very creative and the winds have to be pretty far apart...which these aren't.

Weak...yes. Very. It was much more pronounced yesterday.

[jasons2k]

NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface. I think that will do the trick

You'd think so, but you never know with the NHC.

Again, CUT IT OUT NOW!

A reminder folks:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

[KWT]

Yeah that NW probably would be enough to upgrade this to Bonnie next advisory I agree. I suspect the NHC will just state that despite there not being any direct west wind found, it is assumed there is based on recon reports.

AFM, looks like it blew up that convection in the nick of time for its survival chances, indeed probably a 40-45kts TS right now.

ps, I hardly think thats an attack Jasons to be honest, just stating that we don't know what the NHC are planning to do with this system, which I'd have thought isn't really a personal attack on the NHC, nor disrespectful but I suppose it depends on how you read it...alas I'm well off-topic!

[Hurricane Andrew]

NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface. I think that will do the trick

44 knots?

what is that in MPH?

[Cryomaniac]

NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface. I think that will do the trick

You'd think so, but you never know with the NHC.

Again, CUT IT OUT NOW!

A reminder folks:

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act respectfully at all times.

The NHC has been pretty inconsistent at times. I certainly didn't mean that post in the way it was taken. Are you implying that we aren't allowed to even question what the NHC does? I respect the NHC and it's staff, but they have been inconsistent.

[KWT]

NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface. I think that will do the trick

44 knots?

what is that in MPH?

About 50mph roughly, to be honest its a bit stronger then I was expecting last night thats for sure, esp when it had such a poor presentation in the early morning hours.

[Cryomaniac]

NW winds found and 44 knots at the surface. I think that will do the trick

44 knots?

what is that in MPH?

About 50mph roughly, to be honest its a bit stronger then I was expecting last night thats for sure, esp when it had such a poor presentation in the early morning hours.

When is the next advisory?

[jasons2k]

The NHC has been pretty inconsistent at times. I certainly didn't mean that post in the way it was taken. Are you implying that we aren't allowed to even question what the NHC does? I respect the NHC and it's staff, but they have been inconsistent.

It's one thing to question a decision or to express disagreement. There has been a lot of discussion around this over 95L and 96L/TD2. We've been pretty "loose" with that in this thread.

It's quite another to make an underhanded, sarcastic remark like "You'd think so, but you never know with the NHC".

Why is that so hard to understand?

Let's not hijack the thread over this so if anyone needs further clarification then send a PM, thanks.

[poof121]

When is the next advisory?

At 10 AM CDT.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

If I had to make a punt I think the NHC will go upto 40kts with this and call it a TS...mainly because of the reasons AFM mentioned further up this page.

[clfenwi]

(snip)But, what should they do? Since recon cannot close off a circulation should it be downgraded to a wave while heavy rains and possibly tropical storm force winds may still come onshore? Since radar shows a good low/mid level circulation and SFMR has reported numerous 35 to 40 knot winds go ahead and upgrade to Bonnie under the assumption that a circulation center does exist, but too broad to close it off at this time? Keep it as a depression and keep everything status quo since tropical storm warnings are still in effect not upgrading wouldn't hurt, and that would be better than declaring it as a wave? Lots of tough decisions... I personally would vote for the last option and keep it as a depression so that warnings can be justified still and see if a surface circulation shows up in subsequent obs from the recon. What do y'all think?

I think it is one of those situations where the demand of continuity forces the forecaster's hand to some extent. Probably will be treated a bit differently than if this were an unclassified system out in open water.

With the ill-defined surface circulation there's a bit more analysis and interpretion required than usual. My casual reading of the obs is that it would be classified as a tropical storm for the 11 AM advisory. By no means a lock or slam dunk of a decision.

[KWT]

I wonder whether we might have several weak open centers that are fighting for development. There does seem to be some turning where the NHC think it is, there is clearly something up further to the NNW as well...interesting stuff people!

[HURAKAN]

It will be great to be in those discussion in the NHC!!

[wxman57]

It looks like the center may be on the TX coast near Port Isabel. I'd thought it looked like it was accelerating at 16-18 kts overnight, but it was hard to tell without obs around it. The surface plot below and the recon seem to confirm that the center is about to come ashore. But winds around it are not anywhere near TS force. And I think those 39 and 44kt SFMR winds look bogus as they aren't even close to the rest of the obs.

[Macrocane]

The mets in the NHC must be kind of stressed with systems like this but I'm sure at the end they find it very interesting and educative, I guess it's a hard but exciting job.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[djones65]

I certainly can see why an upgrade to Bonnie might occur, but personally I think they will keep it as a depression unless the aircraft can get a good vortex fix. If you look at the recon obs the 44 knot SFMR was surrounded by 20 knot measurements and although it was not flagged, I understand there is doubt about the SFMR measurements when the winds are near the coast. However, there were a number of 35 to 40 knot winds earlier this morning farther offshore before the hunt for the center occurred. But the 44 kt SFMR measurement near the coast and no other winds above 25 knot were measured in that set of obs makes it a suspicious reading to me. Unless a vortex fix is made I expect NHC to keep it as a depression and state it could become a tropical storm at anytime. But I definitely can see your opinions KWT and clfenwi... I also agree with AFM completely, that a closed circulation probably exists especially since there is such a broad region of light winds and flat pressure, but lately there seems to have been a movement so to speak of requiring concrete data to validate upgrades or intensity changes, etc and there is less interpretation, conjecture, and intuitiveness in the forecasts issued. Nevertheless, no matter what direction the NHC forecaster goes, I will be willing to bet there will be a lot of people disagreeing with their decision... Unless of course a vortex message is issued, then it would be quite compelling to name it Bonnie... I appreciate everyone's participation in this discussion... I find it quite interesting and exciting.

[wxman57]

Yep, NHC put the center just offshore Port Isabel (the L on my map the previous page) at 26N/97W. No change in intensity, which looks correct. Just a TD.

[cycloneye]

No Bonnie.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...
BRINGING RAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO....


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES