ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Dean4Storms]

All is going to depend on how far south the trough digs and how quickly this system deepens and its overall speed and course over the next two days to see where it ends up. Too early yet to say with any 100% certainty. I'm still trying to understand the GFS developing a low near the coast of AL/FL with a TC in the Gulf.

I'm still trying to understand the GFS pulling a front through SE TX in July...

I'm with ya there, think the GFS is way off, but how much is the question.

[wxman57]

Is Recon going to get after this thing tomorrow?

I believe there will be something to investigate by tomorrow. That's what I've been saying for a week. Wait until Friday...

[lrak]

LOL wxman57...I stopped crying about it and put in a rock front yard

[Nederlander]

Is Recon going to get after this thing tomorrow?

I believe there will be something to investigate by tomorrow. That's what I've been saying for a week. Wait until Friday...

Gotta hand it to you wxman.. while all of us on here jump on and off the bandwagon with every sat. loop, all along youve said come back friday.. looking more and more like you were right all along.. glad to have such good promets on here..

[lrak]

Is Recon going to get after this thing tomorrow?

I believe there will be something to investigate by tomorrow. That's what I've been saying for a week. Wait until Friday...

Gotta hand it to you wxman.. while all of us on here jump on and off the bandwagon with every sat. loop, all along youve said come back friday.. looking more and more like you were right all along.. glad to have such good promets on here..

Dats what he said.

[Comanche]

I'm still trying to understand the GFS pulling a front through SE TX in July...

Mother Earths joke on Al Gore??

Joking aside, hasn't the GFS been the most consistant trackwise? The Euro has been the widshield wiper of the two.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Still falling, it should of started rising by now.

[wx247]

Yep, we are lucky to have pro mets on the board willing to share their time and knowledge with us.

If the GFS has missed this development (which it looks like it has), what implications does that have long term (or are there none)? Is this a one time miss or a signal of a bigger problem?

Also, just my $.04... but I think we see a 60% outlook from the NHC at their next TWO.

[Brent]

Is Recon going to get after this thing tomorrow?

I believe there will be something to investigate by tomorrow. That's what I've been saying for a week. Wait until Friday...

Gotta hand it to you, you've been spot on all week.

[drezee]

I would really like the winds at 42057 to turn closer to 45 degrees to show that the wind field is getting better established under the convection. 70 degrees last hour. pressure down to 1006.6mb

[KWT]

Is Recon going to get after this thing tomorrow?

I believe there will be something to investigate by tomorrow. That's what I've been saying for a week. Wait until Friday...

Yep your sure have, looking a good call at the moment. FWIW I know its early in the game but what sort of strength do think you think we are looking at for a Yucatan landfall, assuming it does hit the Yucatan?

I've personally been looking at minimal TS myself...

[psyclone]

i have no question development commenced once i dogged the system earlier today. works everytime:) hopefully no one gets too dented from this one and it stays away from the spill zone.

[cycloneye]

The latest Marine forecast.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AMZ089-250330-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W WITH
EMBEDDED LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 16N82W WILL MOVE TO THE NW TOWARD
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE LOW MAY
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE REACHING THE YUCATAN AND MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRI OR FRI NIGHT.

[Farseer]

Though I will agree with AFM, the trough is WAY overdone by the gfs. Think about it, when was the last time we had a cold front clear the coast in LATE June?

We have late season fronts almost every year:
2009
June 30: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20090630.html
July 19: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20090719.html
2008
July 1: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20080701.html

[JonathanBelles]

What effect with Hurricane Darby in the EPAC have on 93L?

[KWT]

Still not much in the way of LL convergence or UL divergence aloft over the orginal LLC though there is some higher UL Divergence over the convection that has developed closer to the LLC. Probably the first sign of things coming together.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Outflow boundaries everywhere. FAIL

[drezee]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Outflow boundaries everywhere. FAIL

Outflow boundaries in the outer bands are typical. I do not see them near the developing LLC...

[wx247]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Outflow boundaries everywhere. FAIL

Maybe I am missing something, but I don't see them near the "LLC"... especially not everywhere.

[Brent]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Outflow boundaries everywhere. FAIL

What?