ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Outflow boundaries everywhere. FAIL

Maybe I am missing something, but I don't see them near the "LLC"... especially not everywhere.

I see outflow boundary coming in from East to West in the convection east of the supposed circulation.

[JonathanBelles]

I really dont see many outflow boundaries, but what I see is convection moving towards the llc for the time being.

[KWT]

Yeah I can't see any outflow boundaries with the convection that is close to the circulation either for that matter...
Are you sure your not just seeing the CU lines flowing into the system and mistaking them for outflow boundaries?

[I-wall]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Outflow boundaries everywhere. FAIL

What does that mean?

[drezee]

I suspect the well known launguage of "if the current trend continues" to be in order for the 8pm outlook... 2am at the latest

[I-wall]

Looks like the old LLC is gone (or being totally sucked in to the new LLC).

[I-wall]

When will we get new vorticity maps or ascat images? Is there any other way to confirm that there is a new LLC under the convection?

[HouTXmetro]

Yeah I can't see any outflow boundaries with the convection that is close to the circulation either for that matter...
Are you sure your not just seeing the CU lines flowing into the system and mistaking them for outflow boundaries?

I don't know...I'm not a pro at this... what I see is not exactly flowing into the system instead it's flowing over the system from east to west. perhaps someone can provide a better explanation as to what I am really seeing. Not that yours isn't adequate KWT.

[cycloneye]

Cloud tops of -80C showing up.

[drezee]

When will we get new vorticity maps or ascat images? Is there any other way to confirm that there is a new LLC under the convection?

it is sort of though right now...that is why 42057 is so important tonight...as the windfield becomes more symmetric, the heading of the LLC in relation to 42057 will be known by the wind direction at the buoy...

[KWT]

Yeah those cloud tops are cooling thats for sure cycloneye as we head into the overnight hours, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the LLC is relocating into that convection burst, or maybe just to the west of it.

[Ivanhater]

I hate really zoomed in pictures, they don't allow you to get the whole picture, especially with a developing storm.

There is just to much energy here not to develop into something

[JonathanBelles]

Yeah I can't see any outflow boundaries with the convection that is close to the circulation either for that matter...
Are you sure your not just seeing the CU lines flowing into the system and mistaking them for outflow boundaries?

I don't know...I'm not a pro at this... what I see is not exactly flowing into the system instead it's flowing over the system from east to west. perhaps someone can provide a better explanation as to what I am really seeing. Not that yours isn't adequate KWT.

Outflow boundaries flow out from a system, whether it is a single cell or a hurricane. An outflow boundary flows out of a system with the lift underneath it dissipates and lets the storm dissipate as well. Like KWT said, it looks like some upper level clouds just passing over the system.

[HouTXmetro]

Yeah I can't see any outflow boundaries with the convection that is close to the circulation either for that matter...
Are you sure your not just seeing the CU lines flowing into the system and mistaking them for outflow boundaries?

I don't know...I'm not a pro at this... what I see is not exactly flowing into the system instead it's flowing over the system from east to west. perhaps someone can provide a better explanation as to what I am really seeing. Not that yours isn't adequate KWT.

Outflow boundaries flow out from a system, whether it is a single cell or a hurricane. An outflow boundary flows out of a system with the lift underneath it dissipates and lets the storm dissipate as well. Like KWT said, it looks like some upper level clouds just passing over the system.

Thanks for the explanation.

[SunnyThoughts]

I hate really zoomed in pictures, they don't allow you to get the whole picture, especially with a developing storm.

There is just to much energy here not to develop into something

Yeah I think its cooking now. Just hope it heads west as a minimal ts or less...gives texas/mex some rain...and stays away from the part of the gom where the oil would be affected in any way.

[South Texas Storms]

I hate really zoomed in pictures, they don't allow you to get the whole picture, especially with a developing storm.

There is just to much energy here not to develop into something

Yeah I think its cooking now. Just hope it heads west as a minimal ts or less...gives texas/mex some rain...and stays away from the part of the gom where the oil would be affected in any way.

couldnt have said it better myself

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The blob looks like it is getting more convection but it appears it is all moving westward towards the Yucatan/Central America with that strong ridge to the north, and since it is not a deep system at this point, is not able to really gain much lattitude. Question becomes whether there is enough time for it to develop into a named system before it runs out of real estate. I do think that whatever emerges in the BOC/WGOM could have a decent shot of becoming something named as the models support seems to be the greatest there. I'd say maybe a 60% chance at this point.

[Ivanhater]

There is the 1006.7mb

[cycloneye]

Since I posted that the 8 PM TWO would be upped to 50% 2 hours ago,the system has continued to improve in organization,so I go up to 60%.

[Air Force Met]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Outflow boundaries everywhere. FAIL

Maybe I am missing something, but I don't see them near the "LLC"... especially not everywhere.

I see outflow boundary coming in from East to West in the convection east of the supposed circulation.

Outflow boundaries to the east of the center really means nothing in a developing system...and is to be expected. If outflow boundaries were moving OUT of the low...then that would be a FAIL. These boundaries aren't...