ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

steering collapses....??

[CYCLONE MIKE]

There's that east coast trough I have been looking for. Million dollar question will it be as strong as gfs is showing and push all the way to the gulf coast states? I didn't think whatever little storm the gfs was trying to develop near boothville was what could possibly weaken the ridge enough to turn Alex north as shown by some models.

[LaBreeze]

0z GFS out and still is north....wonderful

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

Yeah, and the "spurious vort max" is not what is breaking the ridge down..it's the trough

Ivanhater, do you think that the trough will be strong enough to influence Alex so far to the south? Respectfully, just wondering what are your thoughts.

[Ivanhater]

The trend is that way breeze. If we see this continue tomorrow, we have a problem

[Time_Zone]

0z GFS out and still is north....wonderful

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

Yeah, and the "spurious vort max" is not what is breaking the ridge down..it's the trough

Ivanhater, do you think that the trough will be strong enough to influence Alex so far to the south? Respectfully, just wondering what are your thoughts.

Do you mean the ridge?

[Weatherfreak000]

If your following that GFS synoptic pattern you'd be inclined to say yes, the trough is very easily visible as it draws Alex north.


Intensity is the key and Alex appears to be setting up to explode rather fast. The sad thing is if steering currents even break down marginally...Alex gets stronger and stronger and more damage is cost. If this had to hit mexico I wish it would go inland as fast as possible.


If steering currents break down more, the U.S. is definitely going to be threatened, with people staring at a grim circumstance.

Edit: This isn't going to be that glorious rain-maker TS you guys may need to overcome the drought.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Labreeze, not to speak for Ivan, but it is a pretty much wait and see. It is not expected to get near us until about tuesday, if it makes it this far south.

[LaBreeze]

If your following that GFS synoptic pattern you'd be inclined to say yes, the trough is very easily visible as it draws Alex north.


Intensity is the key and Alex appears to be setting up to explode rather fast. The sad thing is if steering currents even break down marginally...Alex gets stronger and stronger and more damage is cost. If this had to hit mexico I wish it would go inland as fast as possible.


If steering currents break down more, the U.S. is definitely going to be threatened, with people staring at a grim circumstance.

Are the steering currents expected to break down more? How certain is this expectation?

[Ivanhater]

Crap

[LaBreeze]

Crap

Is this a recent graphic? Not looking good for me - how could this be a possibility if the forecast is so set on a move toward the upper Mexican coast? (By the way, "crap" would be my response as well!)

[Nederlander]

La Breeze, the ridge is what is currently steering Alex to the west.. if the trough effects Alex, it will pull him north..

yes this is the latest gfs run, but this is just one model.. The NHC forecast doesnt not just account for one model... wait for the Euro.. dont freak out yet..

[ROCK]

that is SW LA.....interesting...

[LaBreeze]

La Breeze, the ridge is what is currently steering Alex to the west.. if the trough effects Alex, it will pull him north..

That's pretty much what I thought as well - thanks for the input

[Yankeegirl]

Crap too..... I dont like the latest trends either.... looks like they are all going more north.... i love playing the watch and wait game....

[LaBreeze]

La Breeze, the ridge is what is currently steering Alex to the west.. if the trough effects Alex, it will pull him north..

yes this is the latest gfs run, but this is just one model.. The NHC forecast doesnt not just account for one model... wait for the Euro.. dont freak out yet..

Not freaking out, just wondering.

[deltadog03]

OK, NOT**** saying this is going to be right, but if it is...alex will explode in the gom...



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[LSU2001]

Southwest Louisiana with the storm moving northeast i guess. That would put the oil spill on the right side of the storm which would push the oil inland and west deep into the La. marsh and towns. Crap is a much weaker word than I would use but gotta follow the rules
TIm

[Ivanhater]

SW Louisiana hit

[Weatherfreak000]

Thank you members as always for continuous posting of the model runs as they come. I am positive you have many grateful members here (and pro mets...although they may not wanna admit it) for your continuous service the speed at which you provide this information is second to none.

[Plant grower]

Word is the new gfs is in line with the other models.Does anyone else know about this ?