WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

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GCANE
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1121 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:31 am

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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1122 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:35 am

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#1123 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:42 am

JTWC finally trending east. Direct hit on HK at 85 kts wouldn't be very nice at all.
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Re:

#1124 Postby Typhoon10 » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:02 am

Chacor wrote:JTWC finally trending east. Direct hit on HK at 85 kts wouldn't be very nice at all.


Yes, Cat 2 strength isnt it? Am glad its not going to be more than that, but will start preparing
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#1125 Postby Dave C » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:06 am

That 85 knts is after landfall, could be stronger just as it strikes the coast. :double:
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#1126 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:06 am

IR proflile suggests this one is starting to finally sort out its inner core after 24hrs but I really need to see a microwave image of the core to really know for sure.

85kts into HK would certainly be newsworthy, when was the last time they got hit by a decently strong Typhoon?
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1127 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:07 am

Evening Video
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZn4Fa-qKYE[/youtube]
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#1128 Postby AussieMark » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:12 am

JMA has it at 100 kts before Hong Kong landfall
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#1129 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:25 am

Alive and well. Sorry for lack of updates, total communications nightmare as to be expected. Rode out the storm in Aparri, did not fancy being in the core of a cat. 5 where the infrastructure is so fragile.

Travel on the road to about 40km north of Ilagan, some areas looked like they been hit by a tornado, no surprises there.

Flying to Hong Kong tomorrow to cover the second phase of this story. I'll upload video tomorrow night once I'm back in my flat in Hong Kong. Will recharge batteries, both for the cameras and body, before taking on Megi again.
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Re:

#1130 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:29 am

AussieMark wrote:JMA has it at 100 kts before Hong Kong landfall


Thats pretty high for the JMA really, 100kts 10 min sustained wind would certainly lead to an impressive landfall...I'd imagine the situation for Hong Kong is rather similar to many of the Gulf coast states in the US with regards to the lay of the land.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1131 Postby Pleasing05 » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:36 am

Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "JUAN" (MEGI)
Issued at 5:00 p.m., Tuesday, 19 October 2010
Typhoon "JUAN" has maintained its strength while slowly moving in a northwestward direction.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 230 km West Northwest of Dagupan City
Coordinates: 16.9°N, 118.1°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 210 kph
Movement: Forecast to move Northwest at 7 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Wednesday afternoon: 450 km West Northwest of Dagupan City
Thursday afternoon: 650 km West Northwest of Laoag City


5pm
Image


7pm
Image

The storm is starting to move I think, very slowly. Pagasa said it was max sustained winds @ 175kph (95kts), gustiness @ 210kph (113kts). and the 7pm shot had a very big definite eye. err I hope it does weaken or at least not strengthen O.O
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Re:

#1132 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:36 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Alive and well. Sorry for lack of updates, total communications nightmare as to be expected. Rode out the storm in Aparri, did not fancy being in the core of a cat. 5 where the infrastructure is so fragile.

Travel on the road to about 40km north of Ilagan, some areas looked like they been hit by a tornado, no surprises there.

Flying to Hong Kong tomorrow to cover the second phase of this story. I'll upload video tomorrow night once I'm back in my flat in Hong Kong. Will recharge batteries, both for the cameras and body, before taking on Megi again.



Glad to hear from you, was worried that we had no updates from you in awhile. Good luck in Hong Kong and looking forward to your videos.

Fair winds and following seas (navy for stay safe.)
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Re: Re:

#1133 Postby AussieMark » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:42 am

KWT wrote:
AussieMark wrote:JMA has it at 100 kts before Hong Kong landfall


Thats pretty high for the JMA really, 100kts 10 min sustained wind would certainly lead to an impressive landfall...I'd imagine the situation for Hong Kong is rather similar to many of the Gulf coast states in the US with regards to the lay of the land.


TY 1013 (Megi)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 19 October 2010
<Analyses at 19/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°50'(16.8°) E118°20'(118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM) S370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 19/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°) E117°25'(117.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 20/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°) E116°55'(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°) E116°30'(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 22/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°35'(20.6°) E116°30'(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 650km(350NM)
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Re:

#1134 Postby Typhoon10 » Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:04 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Alive and well. Sorry for lack of updates, total communications nightmare as to be expected. Rode out the storm in Aparri, did not fancy being in the core of a cat. 5 where the infrastructure is so fragile.

Travel on the road to about 40km north of Ilagan, some areas looked like they been hit by a tornado, no surprises there.

Flying to Hong Kong tomorrow to cover the second phase of this story. I'll upload video tomorrow night once I'm back in my flat in Hong Kong. Will recharge batteries, both for the cameras and body, before taking on Megi again.


Glad your safe and well James. Look forward to seeing video's. Would be great to catch up when your back, if your free
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon

#1135 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 19, 2010 9:00 am

Track from HKO , very scary
Image
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#1136 Postby Chacor » Tue Oct 19, 2010 9:51 am

The eastward shift continues.

JTWC 1500 UTC warning (1200 UTC analysis/forecast) is out. Shifts landfall east of Hong Kong before recurving it westward. This would put HK in the weaker side of the storm.

JMA's 5-day is well east of HK, making landfall in around 4 days into China very near the Taiwan Strait.
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#1137 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 19, 2010 11:34 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 16.7N 117.8E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 17.9N 116.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 211200UTC 19.1N 116.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 221200UTC 21.1N 116.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

And from earlier:
96HF 231200UTC 23.4N 117.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 241200UTC 25.9N 118.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =

Image

SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 027
WTPN31 PGTW 191500
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 117.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 117.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.2N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.4N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.6N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.9N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.5N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 117.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ENLARGED.
ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THESE ARE
SUPPORTED BY A 191154Z SSMI-S IMAGE SHOWING A CLOSED MICROWAVE EYE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 15W IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO
THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH A MESOCALE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM. IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)TO THE NORTHEAST. TYPHOON MEGI
HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT MORE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THE TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED MORE POLEWARD.
B. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER
TAU 12 AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS FURTHER SOUTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN INTENSITY FROM TAU 36 TO 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE NORTH BUILDS.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AND
EGRR FAVORING A DRASTIC POLEWARD TUG TOWARDS TAIWAN AND ECMWF
FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF
JTWC CONSENSUS WITH BIAS TOWARDS ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION STAYS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FAVORING A LESS INTENSE POLEWARD MOTION
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO THE RIGHT AND POLEWARD OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
C. AS THE STR RE-BUILDS NORTH NEAR TAU 48, TYPHOON MEGI IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND EVEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG BEFORE TAU
96.//

WTPQ20 BABJ 191600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 191600 UTC
00HR 16.9N 117.6E 940HPA 52M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR WNW 8KM/H=

Image

TXPN23 KNES 191513
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 19/1430Z
C. 16.8N
D. 117.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON MG EYE WITH LG SURROUNDING GRAY
SHADE. PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
19/1154Z 16.6N 117.8E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
=
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#1138 Postby shah8 » Tue Oct 19, 2010 11:41 am

I don't think the JMA forcast will verify. If it does, it will be obvious in about 5-8 hours.
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#1139 Postby shah8 » Tue Oct 19, 2010 12:26 pm

Okay, latest IR shows that it's succeeding in wrapping around the eye. Next few hours are key, in terms of path and whether the eye gets less ragged.
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#1140 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 19, 2010 2:24 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2010 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 17:11:18 N Lon : 117:21:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 934.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +3.8C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Seems to be RI'ing again.
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