WTPQ20 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 16.7N 117.8E GOOD
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 17.9N 116.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 211200UTC 19.1N 116.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 221200UTC 21.1N 116.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
And from earlier:
96HF 231200UTC 23.4N 117.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 241200UTC 25.9N 118.0E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =

SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 027
WTPN31 PGTW 191500
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 117.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 117.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.2N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.0N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.4N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.6N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.0N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.9N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.5N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 117.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND ENLARGED.
ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. THESE ARE
SUPPORTED BY A 191154Z SSMI-S IMAGE SHOWING A CLOSED MICROWAVE EYE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 15W IS APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO
THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH A MESOCALE ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM. IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)TO THE NORTHEAST. TYPHOON MEGI
HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT MORE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, THE TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED MORE POLEWARD.
B. TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER
TAU 12 AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS FURTHER SOUTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN INTENSITY FROM TAU 36 TO 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE NORTH BUILDS.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH JGSM AND
EGRR FAVORING A DRASTIC POLEWARD TUG TOWARDS TAIWAN AND ECMWF
FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF
JTWC CONSENSUS WITH BIAS TOWARDS ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION STAYS WITH
CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FAVORING A LESS INTENSE POLEWARD MOTION
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO THE RIGHT AND POLEWARD OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
C. AS THE STR RE-BUILDS NORTH NEAR TAU 48, TYPHOON MEGI IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND EVEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG BEFORE TAU
96.//
WTPQ20 BABJ 191600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 191600 UTC
00HR 16.9N 117.6E 940HPA 52M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR WNW 8KM/H=

TXPN23 KNES 191513
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 19/1430Z
C. 16.8N
D. 117.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/SSMIS
H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON MG EYE WITH LG SURROUNDING GRAY
SHADE. PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
19/1154Z 16.6N 117.8E SSMIS
...SCHWARTZ
=