ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Raebie]

Wilmington has received 15 inches of rain over the last 2 days, with 7-10 more forecast, along with high winds and possible tornados. The rainfall amounts could easily surpass those received when Floyd came through. It's getting ugly.

[cycloneye]

Only 6 hours of life for Nicole as the last advisory was written.

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

SATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
NICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER...
WHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND
THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT. THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF
NICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 24.5N 80.0W 35 KT...POST-TROPICAL
12HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Ladylight]

Woo hoo, she is done. Okay, now we wait for the next one.

Good luck with the rain to all those up north.

[HURAKAN]

WOW

lol

[invest man]

I don't believe that this comes as no surprise to no one. Still a gale center is to develop tonight and move northward up the coast which according to the advisory is not part of nicole. E NC should still be in for some gusty winds to gale force and lots of rain. IM

[capepoint]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I may be wrong, but from what I have understood all along, Nicole will be well-underway to being absorbed by the front when it gets here to North Carolina, which is why they have forcasted all along that it would be extra-tropical here. The heavy rains that we have experienced for the past 72 hours or so are not related to Nicole, but are from a plume of tropical moisture riding up the frontal boundry, just like nicole will. The front will eat Nicole and thats what is preventing it from much strenthening.

The expected winds across the Carolinas will be a result of the interaction between the remnant low moving along the frontal boundry, and the high pressure to the east, setting up a very tight pressure gradient. This set-up will produce stiff winds and heavy rains. The flooding problem lies in the fact that with so much rain over the past few days, the ground is saturated and the rivers are full, so there is nowhere for the new rainfall to go. Add to this that we are having astronomicly high tides, and it limits the amount of water that can run out of the rivers, sort-of backing them up.

Poor drainage areas and low-lying areas will see flooding according to forcasts. The winds, that ordinarily wouldn't be a problem, will topple some trees with high root systems that are in saturated soil (Willow, Pecan, etc). This will cause some power outages. There are already some reports of utility poles falling over because of the wet ground not supporting them.

On the extreme side, if enough rain falls, we could (long-shot) see some local extended flooding that would cause scattered property damage to homes and structures, but it will be rain related, not storm surge. This has never been forcasted to be a tropical devestation event for eastern NC.

The above is not an official forcast, but is my own, non-professional opinion. For offical weather information, please consult the National Weather Service or public media.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I may be wrong, but from what I have understood all along, Nicole will be well-underway to being absorbed by the front when it gets here to North Carolina, which is why they have forcasted all along that it would be extra-tropical here. The heavy rains that we have experienced for the past 72 hours or so are not related to Nicole, but are from a plume of tropical moisture riding up the frontal boundry, just like nicole will. The front will eat Nicole and thats what is preventing it from much strenthening.

The expected winds across the Carolinas will be a result of the interaction between the remnant low moving along the frontal boundry, and the high pressure to the east, setting up a very tight pressure gradient. This set-up will produce stiff winds and heavy rains. The flooding problem lies in the fact that with so much rain over the past few days, the ground is saturated and the rivers are full, so there is nowhere for the new rainfall to go. Add to this that we are having astronomicly high tides, and it limits the amount of water that can run out of the rivers, sort-of backing them up.

Poor drainage areas and low-lying areas will see flooding according to forcasts. The winds, that ordinarily wouldn't be a problem, will topple some trees with high root systems that are in saturated soil (Willow, Pecan, etc). This will cause some power outages. There are already some reports of utility poles falling over because of the wet ground not supporting them.

On the extreme side, if enough rain falls, we could (long-shot) see some local extended flooding that would cause scattered property damage to homes and structures, but it will be rain related, not storm surge. This has never been forcasted to be a tropical devestation event for eastern NC.

The above is not an official forcast, but is my own, non-professional opinion. For offical weather information, please consult the National Weather Service or public media.

Our Storm2k Disclaimer was added to your post.

[invest man]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I may be wrong, but from what I have understood all along, Nicole will be well-underway to being absorbed by the front when it gets here to North Carolina, which is why they have forcasted all along that it would be extra-tropical here. The heavy rains that we have experienced for the past 72 hours or so are not related to Nicole, but are from a plume of tropical moisture riding up the frontal boundry, just like nicole will. The front will eat Nicole and thats what is preventing it from much strenthening.

The expected winds across the Carolinas will be a result of the interaction between the remnant low moving along the frontal boundry, and the high pressure to the east, setting up a very tight pressure gradient. This set-up will produce stiff winds and heavy rains. The flooding problem lies in the fact that with so much rain over the past few days, the ground is saturated and the rivers are full, so there is nowhere for the new rainfall to go. Add to this that we are having astronomicly high tides, and it limits the amount of water that can run out of the rivers, sort-of backing them up.

Poor drainage areas and low-lying areas will see flooding according to forcasts. The winds, that ordinarily wouldn't be a problem, will topple some trees with high root systems that are in saturated soil (Willow, Pecan, etc). This will cause some power outages. There are already some reports of utility poles falling over because of the wet ground not supporting them.

On the extreme side, if enough rain falls, we could (long-shot) see some local extended flooding that would cause scattered property damage to homes and structures, but it will be rain related, not storm surge. This has never been forcasted to be a tropical devestation event for eastern NC.

The above is not an official forcast, but is my own, non-professional opinion. For offical weather information, please consult the National Weather Service or public media.

Our Storm2k Disclaimer was added to your post.

well said and thanks, IM

[Aquawind]

Only 6 hours of life for Nicole as the last advisory was written.

Seems like that would be a record..Presentation was never tropical and we still have low pressure and TS winds sooo I guess they got everyones attention at least..

[wxman57]

Could see gale-force winds from the Outer Banks to Long Island tomorrow night/Friday from the low "that is NOT Nichole" tracking up the east coast.

[HURAKAN]

Only 6 hours of life for Nicole as the last advisory was written.

Seems like that would be a record..Presentation was never tropical and we still have low pressure and TS winds sooo I guess they got everyones attention at least..

Lee, 2005, also lasted 6 hours operationally

[Aquawind]

It's a tie then.. I assume Lee was a real tropical system..

[UpTheCreek]

Thanks capepoint, I always appreciate your posts and local knowledge!

[psyclone]

should this have ever been named? i don't know but sometimes in post season analysis you get an extra storm that was missed. does this work in reverse? probably not but nonetheless interesting to think about.

[HURAKAN]

Here we go again. Should or shouldn't have been named posts.

The NHC has experts in this field and if they decided that there was enough to named this system, then it should have been named.

ENOUGH!

[capepoint]

This is what we here in Eastern NC call a "Mullet Blow", as it gets the fish to school-up and run for the inlets out of the sounds.

Besides, we just survived Hurricane Earl, with it's 2 mile per hour winds and 6 drops of rain.

But seriously, I just hope these storms do not do a lot of training over one specific area, that will be a big problem. Everyone has had a lot of rain, and those in low areas do not need anymore. There seems to have been a heavy slot running up the Hwy 17 corridor north from the Wilmington area that has gotten the brunt of it the last few days. Let's all pray they don't get much more. they have gotten over 10 inches in the last 72 hours, I have gotten 7.75 in my backyard during the same period. We already have some street flooding and low-lying flooding with every downpour today. The coastal towns that have storm sewers that run directly into the tidal rivers and sounds are going to suffer tonight and tomorrow during high tide, because none of the streets will drain for a few hours. The stormwater retention ponds are all full, so that is making the street flooding worse. Maybe we can get a break and most of the heavy rain stay offshore. Some people are already trying to say this will be another Floyd type flood. I don't think so, and I hope to God that it wont be.

[cpdaman]

What was nicole's contribution to ACE? lol

[OuterBanker]

Just as Wilmington got out of Earl. The OBX seems to be getting out of this. We are the place to be in NC now. In fact just saw a glimpse of the sun (Wilimington, I can attest to it's existance). I guess it could spread east, but so far it hasn't.

Btw, this also happened with Floyd. Numerous people evacuated inland only to get flooded.

If they stayed here they would have been fine.

[psyclone]

or is it possible the storm is redesignated subtrop post season? not trying to start any sort of warfare here just asking. it really doesn't matter to me one way or the other but it might to the science guys.

[HURAKAN]

What was nicole's contribution to ACE? lol

0.1225

Now Bonnie's and Gaston's don't look that bad!!