WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Megi is much larger now than it was when it hit the Philippines, and I think it will only grow in size before final landfall. I think the destructive potential is much greater at final landfall, even if only a Category 2 or 3 storm as opposed to a monster Cat 5. The storm surge I think will be much higher, to say the least.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
Megi reminds to Ike but stronger. Ike made landfall in Cuba as a medium to small cat 4 hurricane then in the Gulf of Mexico it grew in size a lot but never reached its peak intensity again, something similar is happening with Megi it's growing in size but it may not intensify as much as before though it will remain a dangerous typhoon.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
As soon as I say that, the ADT is jumping - and it wants to intensify a lot more too:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2010 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 17:12:28 N Lon : 117:26:04 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 929.1mb/115.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 7.0 7.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : +0.7C Cloud Region Temp : -79.5C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2010 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 17:12:28 N Lon : 117:26:04 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 929.1mb/115.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 7.0 7.3
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : +0.7C Cloud Region Temp : -79.5C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Tobi, Germany
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 2:50 pm
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
It happened a lot in the last hours. We've very deep convection almost around the whole eye now again.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
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JWTC has moved to the east to match the JMA forcast and nailing Shantou. I don't particularly buy the forcast as it does require a pretty strong turn to the NNW soon, and the storm has been going mostly west for the last hour to two hours. Not very fast, so it might be changing directions. But every wobble westward is going to be big. Shantou isn't that far away from HK.
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WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 117.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.7N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.4N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.7N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.9N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.7N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 117.5E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191819Z AMSU
89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE
AND STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED
ON THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 115 KNOTS,
THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE IR EYE AND
THE AMSU IMAGE. THE 19/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS FURTHER WEAKENED AND SHIFTED
WEST OF HAINAN ISLAND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN STR COMBINED WITH SOME EROSION OF THE
EASTERN STR HAS PRODUCED A POLEWARD-ORIENTED STEERING INFLUENCE.
SUBSEQUENTLY, ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO A POLEWARD
TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD THEN SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD INTO CHINA AND DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN
TXPN23 KNES 192112
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 19/2030Z
C. 17.0N
D. 117.2E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...ELONGATED DG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG. NO
PLUS EYE ADJUSTMENT CAN BE MADE FOR ELONGATED EYES AND 0.5 MUST BE ALSO BE
SUBTRACTED FROM THE EYE NUMBER WHEN NO PREVIOUS SUBTRACTION HAS BEEN MADE.
THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 6.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
=
178
TCNA20 RJTD 192100
CCAA 19210 47644 MEGI(1013) 17169 11173 124/4 2//// 93006=
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 117.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.7N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.4N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.5N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.7N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.9N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.9N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 24.7N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 117.5E.
TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191819Z AMSU
89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A 15 NM IRREGULAR EYE
AND STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. BASED
ON THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 115 KNOTS,
THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE IR EYE AND
THE AMSU IMAGE. THE 19/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS FURTHER WEAKENED AND SHIFTED
WEST OF HAINAN ISLAND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN STR COMBINED WITH SOME EROSION OF THE
EASTERN STR HAS PRODUCED A POLEWARD-ORIENTED STEERING INFLUENCE.
SUBSEQUENTLY, ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO A POLEWARD
TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD THEN SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD INTO CHINA AND DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN
TXPN23 KNES 192112
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 19/2030Z
C. 17.0N
D. 117.2E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...ELONGATED DG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG. NO
PLUS EYE ADJUSTMENT CAN BE MADE FOR ELONGATED EYES AND 0.5 MUST BE ALSO BE
SUBTRACTED FROM THE EYE NUMBER WHEN NO PREVIOUS SUBTRACTION HAS BEEN MADE.
THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES WHILE MET IS 6.0. FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
=
178
TCNA20 RJTD 192100
CCAA 19210 47644 MEGI(1013) 17169 11173 124/4 2//// 93006=
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-
Battlebrick
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 177
- Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:55 pm
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2010 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 16:55:06 N Lon : 117:15:15 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 909.8mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 6.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km
Center Temp : -33.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
WOW
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2010 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 16:55:06 N Lon : 117:15:15 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 909.8mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.7 6.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km
Center Temp : -33.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
WOW
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Lim_Fao on IRC.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
apocalypt-flyer
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:51 am
Judging from this site
http://www.weather.org.hk/tctrack/indexe.html
the JMA is thinking recurve into taiwan?
http://www.weather.org.hk/tctrack/indexe.html
the JMA is thinking recurve into taiwan?
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WTPQ20 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 17.0N 117.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 18.3N 116.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 211800UTC 19.7N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 221800UTC 21.7N 117.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
WTPQ20 BABJ 192100 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 192100 UTC
00HR 17.0N 117.4E 940HPA 52M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR NW 8KM/H
P+24HR 18.3N 116.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 19.8N 115.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 21.4N 113.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 23.0N 111.5E 985HPA 25M/S
P+120HR 23.7N 110.0E 1000HPA 16M/S=
WTSS20 VHHH 191945
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 191800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MEGI (1013) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE
SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
WINDS OF 48 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT 191800 UTC ABOUT
120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRE.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 17.0N 117.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 18.3N 116.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 211800UTC 19.7N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 221800UTC 21.7N 117.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
WTPQ20 BABJ 192100 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 192100 UTC
00HR 17.0N 117.4E 940HPA 52M/S
30KTS 300KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR NW 8KM/H
P+24HR 18.3N 116.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 19.8N 115.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 21.4N 113.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 23.0N 111.5E 985HPA 25M/S
P+120HR 23.7N 110.0E 1000HPA 16M/S=
WTSS20 VHHH 191945
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
AT 191800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MEGI (1013) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE
SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
WINDS OF 48 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT 191800 UTC ABOUT
120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRE.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (116.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (115.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 100 KNOTS.
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Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2010 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 16:50:48 N Lon : 117:20:40 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 903.4mb/137.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -22.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Megi could become a category 5 again. A category 5 Super Typhoon in the South China Sea. MONSTER!
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2010 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 16:50:48 N Lon : 117:20:40 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 903.4mb/137.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.2mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -22.8C Cloud Region Temp : -79.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Megi could become a category 5 again. A category 5 Super Typhoon in the South China Sea. MONSTER!
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: MEGI - Typhoon
What is that system at 165E? it isn't an invest but it is really organized. if that was in the atlantic, it would be a subtropical storm
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
It's now Invest 98W. I started a thread 
Re:
looks like JMA is leaning towards very near Fuzhou. Humm, I better tell me Chinese friends here - most of them are from Fuzhou. This one, if JMA is right won't weaken like most that impact Fuzhou by hitting Taiwan first. They never seem to get too excited when I tell them a typhoon is coming.
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