ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[Weatherfreak000]

Amazing to think this storm is still firing convection. Definitely still a player.


EDIT:




The shear zone appears to be dropping off considerably already here...can I get pro met input on this? I am thinking 92L's ability to now re-fire convection during the day means the environment is improving.

[wxman57]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

The shear zone appears to be dropping off considerably already here...can I get pro met input on this? I am thinking 92L's ability to now re-fire convection during the day means the environment is improving.

Notice in the image that the shear is decreasing (dashed lines) south of the colored band or shear and the shear is increasing on the north side of the band of stronger shear. What the map indicates is that the shear zone is lifting northward with time. However, the disturbance is still encountering quite high shear, and that shear will continue through about Tuesday. So don't look for much to happen until late Tuesday or Wednesday. And it really doesn't matter if the wave tracks right over the DR and Cuba, as there's really not much at the surface for the big islands to disrupt.

[Weatherfreak000]

Is is seeming more likely now 92L will impact the islands?

[Gustywind]

More rain and lightings in Guadeloupe since an half an hour ! Seems that a cluster is reppoping nicely over us and the adjacents islands. Hope that 92L will stay like that before moving of our area...

[AJC3]

Is is seeming more likely now 92L will impact the islands?

Convection associated with 92L has already impacted the islands from the L/A through Hispanola. It's pretty much a given that the wave axis will move across the entire G/A including Cuba, Jamaica and the Caymans, and will likely enhance shower activity across the Bahamas, south Florida and the keys/straits.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert is always maintained in Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php ( french version for those you understand français , FRENCH )

[Gustywind]

Latest measurements in Guadeloupe
Meteo-France Guadeloupe have reported during the last 36h:
values between 150 to 200 millimeters in vicinity of our volcano La Soufriere, between 40 to 90 millimiters in the south tip of the island (Basse-Terre and the others localitites in vicinity), elsewhere values up to 20 to 60 millimeters (Grande-Terre) , same values at Marie-Galante and La Désirade.

[TexasF6]

From Austin

FXUS64 KEWX 192010
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
310 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE
UPPER HIGH BEING THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE UPPER HIGH DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTER DRIFTING NORTH TO
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 72-96H WITH A DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE TRIGGERED
CONVECTION TO CREEP NW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS40 SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...AFFECTING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS EARLY AS NEXT SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY 24H BEHIND THE GFS DEPICTION AND
MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND SOUTHERN GULF. CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW...BUT THE FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST THE UPPER HIGH MOVES THE GREATER OUR RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE. OUR FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY 0-2 DEGREES BELOW
THE 12Z GFSMOS GIVEN THE RECENT GUIDANCE BIAS. OTHERWISE...OUR
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFSMOS.

Better Texas than anywhere else in the GOM....

[jinftl]

Development or not, 92L poses a flood threat to Haiti. Conditions are so fragile in Haiti following the earthquake, that an invest could cause life-threatening flooding and damage.

Excerpt from blog from Dr. Jeff Masters:

"The storm has brought up to 4 inches of rain to Puerto Rico today, and will spread heavy rains of up to four inches over the Dominican Republic tonight and Haiti on Sunday. Rains of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake. "
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1511

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN

[HeidiLore]

Yellow alert is always maintained in Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php ( french version for those you understand français , FRENCH )

Merci. Thank you for all the information you are posting on this thread.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert is always maintained in Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php ( french version for those you understand français , FRENCH )

Merci. Thank you for all the information you are posting on this thread.

Ok merci beaucoup, c'est gentil, j'apprécie ! Oui je serais là pour vous transmettre les infos relatives au temps dès que possible. Glad to read your post .

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 23N68W 18N69W 14N71W MOVING W NEAR
12 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE
BETWEEN 62W-70W EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP SE-NE WIND SHIFT
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS IMPACTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IMPACTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
12N-15N BETWEEN 59W-65W. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

[Weatherfreak000]

Not so sure why everyone is sleeping on 92L...check this out.




The system is located within the -20Kt shearzone...and 92L has been steadily firing convection all day. I believe the shear is gonna lessen alot faster then tuesday. I think we are looking at better than forecasted conditions within 24 hours.

[Ptarmigan]

Not so sure why everyone is sleeping on 92L...check this out.




The system is located within the -20Kt shearzone...and 92L has been steadily firing convection all day. I believe the shear is gonna lessen alot faster then tuesday. I think we are looking at better than forecasted conditions within 24 hours.

It is hard to predict what shear and when it develops.

[vbhoutex]

Not so sure why everyone is sleeping on 92L...check this out.




The system is located within the -20Kt shearzone...and 92L has been steadily firing convection all day. I believe the shear is gonna lessen alot faster then tuesday. I think we are looking at better than forecasted conditions within 24 hours.

What I see tells me that 92L will be moving into 30-40 kt shear relatively soon unless the shear changes or moves more N. I am certainly not discounting the possibility of 92L causing problems further down the road, especially tomorrow in Haiti. I am becoming concerned about the possibility of 92l becoming more than a wave once it enters the GOM. No one wants that to happen now. What makes you believe the shear is going to lessen?

[MGC]

I don't see the shear letting up the next few days. 92L currently don't have a chance, shear and land. Perhaps once 92L gets in the GOM......MGC

[Nederlander]

Shear is lifting out, but all depends on how fast.. 92L may have a rough day tomorrow by the looks of things though.. i dont see favorable conditions for at least a couple more days..

[Brent]

I agree, I don't see anything happening before Tuesday.

[crazycajuncane]

Hopefully 92L stays 92L and finds a home washed ashore somewhere other than Louisiana - Florida. This oil spill has been crazy and I don't see a storm approaching the gulf doing us any favors at all.

I work in the helicopter industry (don't fly em') but having to evacuate bases and just the whole tropical storm / hurricane thing .... IT'S ONLY JULY!