WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[Macrocane]

OK, forget about Ike's comparison, this one seems to be on its way to supertyphoon status again and this time it will be larger than before.

[StormingB81]

Has a storm ever done this..hit land then became a super typhoon again..I mean just WOW!

[euro6208]

the eye seems to have disappeared for now but i think this will be temporary. it might come back

[Typhoon10]

Here in HK, everyone is wondering where and when it will affect us. If it is stalling but gaining strength then makes it a waiting game

[hurricaneCW]

I don't think that MEGI will reach super typhoon status anymore, there's too much dry air entrained in the center and it's still trying to work out its inner core. Notice how the images show very cold cloud tops but then they completely collapse and warm. It's a clear indication that dry air is sabotages rapid intensification otherwise MEGI could easily regain STY status.

This will more or less the case like Ike had where the strengthening will be more gradual as the core tries to get itself back together and try to eliminate the dry air from it.

[supercane]

00Z sat fix bulletins follow. Dvorak estimates T5.5 from RJTD (JMA), T6.0 from PGTW (JTWC).

185
TCNA21 RJTD 200000
CCAA 20000 47644 MEGI(1013) 17174 11172 13214 255// 93106=
TPPN11 PGTW 200027
A. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI)
B. 19/2330Z
C. 17.2N
D. 117.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T6.0/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. CDO
WBF YIELDS 6.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ROSS

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 17.2N 117.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 18.4N 117.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 220000UTC 19.9N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 230000UTC 22.0N 117.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

[Chacor]

Secondary peak forecast (pressure-wise) adjusted downwards (upwards?) by JMA from 920 hPa to 930 hPa.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good morning all, looks like the shear to the N may be a life saver.. still going to be a strong storm though.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf4IM3tKcMY[/youtube]

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 17.2N 117.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 18.4N 117.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 220000UTC 19.9N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 230000UTC 22.0N 117.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 240000UTC 23.5N 117.2E 280NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 250000UTC 25.8N 117.3E 375NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT =


WTPQ20 BABJ 200000 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 200000 UTC
00HR 17.1N 117.3E 940HPA 52M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 150KM
P12HR NW 5KM/H
P+24HR 18.4N 116.4E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 20.0N 115.7E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 21.6N 113.9E 940HPA 52M/S
P+96HR 22.8N 111.9E 992HPA 20M/S
P+120HR 23.8N 110.1E 1002HPA 13M/S=


WTKO20 RKSL 200000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME TY 1013 MEGI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 200000UTC 16.9N 117.3E
MOVEMENT WSW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 210000UTC 18.5N 116.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
48HR
POSITION 220000UTC 19.9N 116.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT
72HR
POSITION 230000UTC 22.2N 116.7E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

[Ptarmigan]

Megi reminds to Ike but stronger. Ike made landfall in Cuba as a medium to small cat 4 hurricane then in the Gulf of Mexico it grew in size a lot but never reached its peak intensity again, something similar is happening with Megi it's growing in size but it may not intensify as much as before though it will remain a dangerous typhoon.

I can attest to what Ike did. Megi is more stronger.

[HURAKAN]

that's an eye

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 OCT 2010 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 17:18:41 N Lon : 117:19:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 906.5mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 4.9 4.9

[Typhoon10]

So is the consensus that because of the monsoon as Megi moves north, it will be affected by the monsoon, move NE and be weakened?

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 117.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 117.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.9N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.8N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.0N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.3N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.2N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.2N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.9N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 117.2E. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BANDING EYE WITH A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SYSTEM
SIZE HAS EXPANDED WITH INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CENTERED ON THE BANDING EYE
FEATURE AS DEPICTED IN THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TY 15W IS IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENED BY A DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED POLEWARD DUE TO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE MORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND REORIENT THE STEERING RIDGE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED
TO ENHANCE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TY MEGI
SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT.
C. BY TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF HONG
KONG. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER LAND AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD WITH GFS, UKMO, JGSI TRACKING THE SYSTEM
MORE POLEWARD AND STAIR-STEPPING IT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH RE-BUILDS. ECMWF TRACKS THE SYSTEM
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST, TOWARDS HONG KONG. THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND TRENDS TO THE LEFT OF MODEL
CONSENSUS.//

[supercane]

03Z sat bulletins in. KNES Dvorak down to T5.0 (90kt).

TXPN23 KNES 200305
SIMWIR
A. 15W (MEGI)
B. 20/0230Z
C. 17.3N
D. 117.4E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.5/XX.X/XXHRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...EYE EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS AN EYE NO. OF 4.5. OW EYE IN MG
ALLOWS FOR NO ADJUSTMENT TO EYE NO. GIVING A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT ARE
5.0. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NEWHARD
=

833
TCNA20 RJTD 200300
CCAA 20030 47644 MEGI(1013) 17175 11173 114/4 2//// 93605=

[supercane]

HKO forecast now in line with other agencies:


Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 200000 UTC, Severe Typhoon Megi (1013) with central pressure 940 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one seven point two degrees north (17.2 N) one one seven point two degrees east (117.2 E) and is forecast to move northwest slowly for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 95 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 180 nautical miles.
Radius of over 47 knot winds 120 nautical miles.
Radius of over 63 knot winds 60 nautical miles.
Radius of over 2 metre waves 240 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 210000 UTC
One eight point three degrees north (18.3 N)
One one seven point one degrees east (117.1 E)
Maximum winds 100 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 220000 UTC
One nine point nine degrees north (19.9 N)
One one seven point four degrees east (117.4 E)
Maximum winds 100 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 230000 UTC
Two two point zero degrees north (22.0 N)
One one six point five degrees east (116.5 E)
Maximum winds 100 knots.

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1013 MEGI (1013)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 17.4N 117.3E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 18.5N 117.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 220000UTC 19.9N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 230000UTC 22.0N 117.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

WTPQ20 BABJ 200300
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SuperTY MEGI 1013 (1013) INITIAL TIME 200300 UTC
00HR 17.5N 117.1E 940HPA 52M/S
30KTS 320KM
50KTS 150KM
P12HR NW 8KM/H
P+24HR 18.6N 116.8E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 20.1N 116.2E 930HPA 55M/S
P+72HR 21.7N 114.8E 945HPA 50M/S
P+96HR 23.0N 112.8E 998HPA 18M/S=