ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

Aric Dunn · #1181 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:33 pm

the last 12hr motion...

Distance between

N Latitude 17 36 0.00, W Longitude 49 12 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 17 41 59.99, W Longitude 50 47 59.99 (Point 2)

169.877 kilometers; 105.557 miles

Azimuth from point 1 to point 2 = 273.99°

#1182 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:35 pm

Wow, still no turn and still south of 18N. Last evenings 2pm position for today had it well into a WNW motion. I cannot help but think it and Julia have pumped up the ridging. This could get interesting!

#1183 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:36 pm

Igor has such a well-defined eye. If you run the loop and check "L/L" and check "Trop Pts" and then zoom in close, you can see the eye motion very clearly. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

Aric Dunn · #1184 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:38 pm

actually here is the position from the 11th... 48 hours ago.

11/2345 UTC 17.6N 41.7W T4.0/4.0 IGOR

so a 48 hour average motion of 273.

plasticup · #1185 Postby **plasticup** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:40 pm

IMO we need another 6-12 hours without a turn before talk of ridge-building and trough-missing becomes a reality. Igor is still within the cone.

#1186 Postby **expat2carib** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:41 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:actually here is the position from the 11th... 48 hours ago.

11/2345 UTC 17.6N 41.7W T4.0/4.0 IGOR

so a 48 hour average motion of 273.

3 degrees north of due west in 48 hours......mmmmmm

KWT · #1187 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:42 pm

VEry interesting Aric, no denying the last 12hrs probably does average 275 BUT there was deffo a 4hr average that was around 280-285, thats pretty clear on the loops IMO....

Since then though it seems to have wobbled back to maybe a hair south of west again...hard to know whats the wobble and whats the true motion for now.

Chances of this making it to the states are pretty slim still though as we saw with Earl if it keeps trucking on the tracks will have to shift westwards...lucky the pattern is still the same old progressive pattern we've seen ever since the start of August...

stormhunter7 · #1188 Postby **stormhunter7** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:42 pm

Need ur input... appears Igor went threw a EWRC.... take a look at the last 10-15 images... notice the inner wall shrinks, and then appears to disappear?
starts around 1700 i think... really appears at 1900utc and then at 2030 there is two walls and then at 2230... inner wall becomes part of new wall?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_06.html

what yall think?

#1189 Postby **psyclone** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:44 pm

it was none other than TWC's Alexandra Steele that declared Igor would stretch from Dallas to DC...1190 miles! i, too was stunned at such a patently absurd declaration. TWC fubars aside, Igor does look awesome.

Gustywind · #1190 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:46 pm

Aric Dunn · #1191 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:49 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:Need u input... appears Igor went threw a EWRC.... take a look at the last 10-15 images... notice the inner wall shrinks, and then appears to disappear?
starting around 1900utc

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_06.html

what yall think?

No but it looks as though we are getting concentric eyewalls possibly developing. the last microwave images showed a possible outer eyewall. by the next set of microwaves we should be able to tell its a ERC has started. but i dont believe that was a ERC in that loops

#1192 Postby **painkillerr** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:50 pm

plasticup wrote:IMO we need another 6-12 hours without a turn before talk of ridge-building and trough-missing becomes a reality. Igor is still within the cone.

This "within the cone" thing seems quite tricky to me. If you move the goal posts in between the direction of a kicked football, you will always score a field goal. How many times was this "cone" moved for EARL? Very convenient for forecasters.

cpdaman · #1193 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:50 pm

expat2carib wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:actually here is the position from the 11th... 48 hours ago.

11/2345 UTC 17.6N 41.7W T4.0/4.0 IGOR

so a 48 hour average motion of 273.

3 degrees north of due west in 48 hours......mmmmmm

yes but it was 17.5 at 11 am
17.5N 49.7W

and 17.75 at 7pm....so measure that lol.

anyone have a link to the ukmet?

gixxer · #1194 Postby **gixxer** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:51 pm

plasticup wrote:IMO we need another 6-12 hours without a turn before talk of ridge-building and trough-missing becomes a reality. Igor is still within the cone.

well it will never be out of the cone, they will just move the cone,lol

i very seldom ever disagree with kwt he is the man and plastic i value your opinion as well but i think its going away from the models if i had to make a complete wild guess it would be by 8 am tomorrow were around 18.1N 53.8W .

someone should start a betting board

#1195 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:52 pm

Starting to come down as well. Probably about 120 kt.

Aric Dunn · #1196 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:52 pm

painkillerr wrote:
plasticup wrote:IMO we need another 6-12 hours without a turn before talk of ridge-building and trough-missing becomes a reality. Igor is still within the cone.

This "within the cone" thing seems quite tricky to me. If you move the goal posts in between the direction of a kicked football, you will always score a field goal. How many times was this "cone" moved for EARL? Very convenient for forecasters.

yeah thats always the case. but in situations like this its very hard to get it right when all we have is models that tell its "supposed" to at some point. once storms turn the accuracy of the forecasts from that point become much better.

#1197 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:53 pm

Down to 125kts.

00z Best Track

AL, 11, 2010091400, , BEST, 0, 177N, 509W, 125, 937, HU,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

#1198 Postby **painkillerr** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:53 pm

gixxer wrote:
plasticup wrote:IMO we need another 6-12 hours without a turn before talk of ridge-building and trough-missing becomes a reality. Igor is still within the cone.

well it will never be out of the cone, they will just move the cone,lol

i very seldom ever disagree with kwt he is the man and plastic i value your opinion as well but i think its going away from the models if i had to make a complete wild guess it would be by 8 am tomorrow were around 18.1N 53.8W .

someone should start a betting board

You got that right....lol

cpdaman · #1199 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:57 pm

last frame looks like definite weakening....makes the 125 look generous imo

look for the 0045 stamp

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

stormhunter7 · #1200 Postby **stormhunter7** » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:59 pm

Have a feeling 00z data is that off the EWRC that appears to be going on... plus the intense bands we had are much smaller and apppear some weaker? It looks like to me there may be some dry air working into the center? I still think that Microwave imagery shows some sort of eyewall replacement of some sort... the inner wall appears to me to erode and the outer one takes over? It may be my eyes playing tricks on me, but i'll look at more sat data to see what i can find out.

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