ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

929
ABNT20 KNHC 022339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
70 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 95, 2010070300, , BEST, 0, 288N, 851W, 20, 1013, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Gustywind]

[Dean4Storms]

Here just to the east of Destin had a pretty good band developed and moved through very quickly toward the WSW to SW offshore, dark low clouds moving very quickly well out ahead of the band. Need to watch this one, I think it has some potential.

[HURAKAN]

Strong winds in the upper levels

[HURAKAN]

Interesting rotation west of Tampa

[rolltide]

Interesting rotation west of Tampa

I saw the same thing. Might be a better place to look for a more tropical low to form.

[SkeetoBite]

Yeah, I'm at the marina just off Tampa Bay. Been watching this all day. Pretty interesting. Looks a lot like a low is trying to form about 80 miles due West of the bay. Then again, could be nothing.

[JonathanBelles]

In the last hour or so, I've begun getting a headache. I don't know if its meteorology or physiology, but I thought I would note it here.

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity keeps moving SW and the vorticity west of Bermuda is increasing

[Florida1118]

Claudette formed just off Tampa last year, so its not impossible...

[wxman57]

Moisture is limited in the area and dry air is moving in. The weak low is moving off to the SW into an area of higher shear. You can see the atmosphere drying out on the MIMIC TPW loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

I don't think this is anything to be concerned about.

[JonathanBelles]

Moisture is far from limited! This is the wettest its been here in St. Pete in a long time. If there was not a front hanging over the northern GOM, I would be looking at tropical cyclone formation possibility.

[SkeetoBite]

Claudette formed just off Tampa last year, so its not impossible...

Claudette formed right where we are seeing this rotation on radar. I was out there fishing (90 miles out) and she formed right above our heads! Tooks us 4.5 hours to get out in 1' to 2' seas and 13 hours to get back in seas building to 12'. All at night, 90 miles off shore. Interesting night.

[HURAKAN]

Track

[MississippiHurricane]

Reminds me of something that comes off of Africa.

[lostsole]

We got got a nasty line of storms blow through moving east to west which only happens with a tropical system. I think something is brewing. And I this is far from my first rodeo here in Pensacola.

[JonathanBelles]

Satellite still clearly shows the LLC(?) to the SW of Tallahassee, and radar is showing another center to the SW to Tampa. I assume the center to the SW of Tampa is an MLC. Can 20kts of shear blow the two centers that far apart?

[thetruesms]

Moisture is far from limited! This is the wettest its been here in St. Pete in a long time. If there was not a front hanging over the northern GOM, I would be looking at tropical cyclone formation possibility.

But if there was no front, there probably wouldn't be this low, either. And while it's still rather moist ahead of the front, it's quite dry behind it

[DTWright]

Same here in Mobile. Just had a nice storm come through with some good wind. Moving East to west also. Storms rarely come from the east side of Mobile Bay to the west side. Been here 50 years, and that is definitely something that usually only happens when something is in the gulf.