WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTHU (1003/04W)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Old but a nice pic

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1003 CHANTHU (1003) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 19.8N 112.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 21.4N 109.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 231800UTC 22.7N 107.9E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 60 knots

[HURAKAN]

Eye coming out as it approaches landfall

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 111.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 111.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 21.9N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 22.7N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.3N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 111.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (CHANTHU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTHEAST OF
ZHANJIANG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

JMA also up to 70 kt.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Typhoon Hunter]

Chanthu making landfall now on Wuchuan city, just to the east of Zhanjiang. Strong storm with winds of 70kts according to JMA. Latest radar is very impressive:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Typhoon force winds raging through Dianbai at the moment, on eastern side of eyewall. Sustained 36.3 m/s!

[supercane]

Where is that ob from? I can't find any METARs from that city.

FWIW, shows the folks following 97L and 98L where the real action is.

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (CHANTHU)
WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (CHANTHU), INTENSIFIED FROM A TROPICAL STORM
AND DEVELOPED AN EYE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS THE SYSTEM
GETTING FRAYED ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 212310Z AMSU-B PASS,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 FROM KNEW, PGTW, AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN AN AREA OF WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS
SUPPORTED BY UPPER-AIR DATA FROM NANNING AND HAIKOU.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. CHANTHU WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR ZHANJIANG NEAR TAU 06, THEN RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BEFORE TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND WBAR
DEVIATING ABRUPTLY TO THE RIGHT AND NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE AND JGSM,
ECMWF, AND GFS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PACK. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD DEVIATION.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

:uarrow: Where is that ob from? I can't find any METARs from that city.

FWIW, shows the folks following 97L and 98L where the real action is.

Link to obs from Dianbai - http://www.weather.com.cn/html/weather/101282004.shtml

Pressure in Wuchuan which got a direct hit dropped down to 973.1hPa - http://www.weather.com.cn/html/weather/101281002.shtml

[Typhoon Hunter]

BLACK rainstorm warning now in effect here in Hong Kong. First time it's been issued since 2008, rainfall rates exceeding 70mm per hour. Chanthu really has got a sting in it's tail!

"Black Rainstorm Warning Signal Special Announcement issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 5:30 p.m.

The Rainstorm Warning Signal is now Black. This means that heavy rain has fallen or is expected to fall generally over Hong Kong, exceeding 70 millimetres in an hour, and is likely to continue.

Because of seriously flooded roads and inclement weather conditions, you are advised to take shelter in a safe place and stay there. Parents, students, school authorities and school-bus drivers should listen to radio or television announcements on schools. Do not attempt to travel until the
Black Rainstorm Warning Signal is no longer in force and traffic conditions have improved.

Please listen to radio or watch television for traffic conditions and further announcements on the rainstorm.

Dispatched by Hong Kong Observatory at 17:30 HKT on 22.07.2010"

[HURAKAN]

Landfall a few hours ago

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (CHANTHU) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 110.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 110.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.4N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 23.1N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.8N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 110.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (CHANTHU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM NORTH OF
ZHANJIANG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
220600Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE THAT TY 04W MADE LANDFALL AT
APPROXIMATELY 22/06Z WITH A 15 NM ROUND EYE EVIDENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 77 (KNES) TO 90 KNOTS (RJTD). TY 04W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST INTO EASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TC-LAPS WHICH DEPICTS AN UNLIKELY RE-CURVE TRACK.
THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED LEFT OF THE JTWC MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 04W
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
GULF OF TONKIN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 JUST NORTH
OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon10]

Outer rainbands of Chanthu have brought "Black Rain", more than 1500 lightning strikes in 3 hours here. Possible flooding and landslides.

[KWT]

Wow thats presentation is really impressive, strengthening occured at quite a decent clip upto landfall.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1003 CHANTHU (1003)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 21.7N 110.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 22.8N 107.4E 70NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Was downgraded earlier at 06z.

[wyq614]

according to CMA the landfall time is 1345 Beijing Time (0545 UTC)