ATL: INVEST 98L - DISCUSSION

[CrazyC83]

Maybe it will turn back east and create a Bonnie and Clyde situation? (If only the WMO replaced Charley with Clyde instead of Colin!)

[poof121]

Maybe it will turn back east and create a Bonnie and Clyde situation? (If only the WMO replaced Charley with Clyde instead of Colin!)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCATED ABOUT 250 SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE
COAST OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[supercane]

Best track positions through the day per ATCF shows steady westward progression:

AL, 98, 2010072200, , BEST, 0, 202N, 935W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 98, 2010072206, , BEST, 0, 205N, 942W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 98, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 207N, 949W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

Quickly running out of real estate.

Also note no recon scheduled for this system.

[MGC]

Will have to rely on surface obs when 98L comes ashore to determine if it is a TD, TS or not. My bet is that it might be a minimal TS......MGC

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html

Tampico has a brisk North wind, does that mean the disturbance is still over water?

And why is the BOC buoy showing a lower pressure than up near the disturbance?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=M&tz=STN

thanks

[lester]

30% chance of development now.

[lrak]

how is he pwned?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE DECREASED THIS
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LESS LIKELY SINCE THE LOW
IS GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[supercane]

SSD's Dvorak classification at 0Z:
22/2345 UTC 21.4N 98.2W OVERLAND 98L -- Atlantic

Truly 98L's time is up.

[bob rulz]

Land interaction seems to have given it a nice, round improvement in organization though...mostly after it made landfall.

Could anything come of that vast moisture envelope sneaking up behind 98L? That is a MASSIVE bunch of moisture.

[lrak]

Naked swirl coming ashore 23n 97w is this 98.5L? It has a few bands of convection with it.