ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[I-wall]

I see outflows racing away from the convection in all directions which is usually indicative of no LLC. Give it another day folks!

i thought good outflow was indicative of a well established, breathing system?

[KWT]

Going to be another one of those last minute systems, unless it has recon in there at the time the NHC tends to not upgrade them.

[fwbbreeze]

I see outflows racing away from the convection in all directions which is usually indicative of no LLC. Give it another day folks!

i thought good outflow was indicative of a well established, breathing system?

I believe Dean is referencing the outflow boundries from the collapsing thunderstorms...and that is never a good thing

[Macrocane]

i thought good outflow was indicative of a well established, breathing system?

Dean4storms was refering to outflow boundaries, they're arc clouds that move away from a system usually it means that the thunderstorms are weakening due to dry or stable air, the clouds inside the red shape are the outflow boundaries that 92L has expeled.

[KWT]

Cricky that is alot of outflow boundaries, probably means the chances of development have just gone way downhill...

[Weatherfreak000]

This still has alot more time then the usual disturbance however, seeing as it should make it to the Yucatan.


Another D-Max should refire this area.

[KWT]

Yeah it does have time but to be fair the latest complete poof of convection is just a major blow for this one to have a shot at developing, but still can't rule it out just yet.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SOME DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

Interesting that they've held it at 20% despite the weakening of convection, but then again it just shows the NHC knows what its doing usually with these sorts of systems.

[vbhoutex]

I haven't been on line much today, but just took a quick look at the visible. Even though 92L has a lot more watery real estate to cover before it impacts land, unless it really kicks itself into high gear soon, I don't see it making even a run at TS. All I see is a wave with no turning at any level evident moving WNW. The outflow boundaries it spit out tell the story right now. There is very little there to work with imo.

[HURAKAN]

-10 in convergence doesn't help

[cycloneye]

Nothing interesting there right now. By the way, the 00z best track didn't come out and that is a bad sign.

[tailgater]

I was very bullish on this invest earlier today, now no convection I'm gonna totally forget about it if doesn't start refiring soon. Here's the NAM for what it's worth.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[lrak]

I got a hunch its just fooling with us

[ConvergenceZone]

where did it go??? LOL.

[Sanibel]

Poof or major d-min? Weird year!

[tailgater]

Starting to re fire near the dying Mid level rotation(15N 77W) with little measle like T-storms popping up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

[MGC]

Poof.......MGC

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Thursday, August 5, 2010 650 am EDT/550 am CDT
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Discussion
Elsewhere In The Tropical Atlantic:
There is quite a bit going on in the tropical Atlantic, besides Colin, so let’s take a look:

A tropical disturbance, designated Invest 92-L, is located in the western Caribbean this morning. There are some shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it, however, it is pretty disorganized and I really think the chances of this becoming a tropical depression are low. In addition, like yesterday, I expect this system to track westward into Central America by about Saturday.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Friday morning.

[clfenwi]

They did post a best track position for 06Z (and presumably in the course of doing do, made one for 00Z)

AL, 92, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 140N, 758W, 25, 1009,
AL, 92, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 140N, 777W, 25, 1009,