WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 134.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.3N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.0N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 29.0N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 32.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 37.3N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 41.2N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 133.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTHEAST
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN,HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN,HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS
HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 291101Z IR IMAGE
WITH BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT SHOWING WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE APPARENT
LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MESOSCALE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS
IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A TUTT TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 85 KNOTS.
C. TS KOMPASU WILL RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 IN RESPONSE TO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COLDER WATERS OF THE
YELLOW SEA AND WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
ACCELERATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA INTO
THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST.//
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