ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[Brent]

Remains at 60

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1525 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 270609
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ABOUT 90 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 23W AND 24W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, August 27, 2010 610 am EDT/510 am CDT


Invest 97-L In The Far Eastern Atlantic:
I am also keeping close tabs on Invest 97-L which is located about 250 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. I think this strong tropical wave will become Tropical Depression #8 this weekend and probably Tropical Storm Fiona early next week. All indications are that this system will be in a favorable environment right into next week and further intensification is likely next week.

Now, for the potential track, Invest 97-L will embedded underneath a large high pressure ridge and a general west to west-northwest track is expected for at least the next several days. I am pretty skeptical with the fast forward motion posed by model guidance like the GFS model, which ends up forecasting that 97-L will catch up with Earl and become dinner for Earl. Other model guidance like the European and Canadian models are downright scary with the European model forecasting a very powerful hurricane to be sitting just northeast of the Bahamas in 10 days. The Canadian model forecasts Hurricane Fiona to be positioned near Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas in 10 days. The upper level setup forecast by both models would imply a significant threat to the US Southeast coast during the Labor Day weekend.

It should be noted that the European model has been very inconsistent with the entire upper level pattern and I am taking this 10 day forecast with a grain of salt. So, don’t cancel your Labor Day weekend plans based on this one model. With that said, it appears that the European model is forecasting that the pattern that will be occurring this weekend will repeat again in 10 to 12 days from now, which is a strong trough of low pressure near the west coast of the United States and a large high pressure system that stretches from the eastern United States into eastern Canada.

I will be monitoring Invest 97-L closely this weekend and will keep you all updated.

Finally….
I wanted to mention that some of the European model ensemble members are forecasting more tropical waves to exit Africa and develop into tropical cyclones over the next 10 days or so. Given the high pressure ridge in place and the favorable environmental conditions, I have no reasons to disagree with the ensemble guidance. So, it seems quite possible that we will have multiple Cape Verde tropical cyclones going at once as we head into the first ten days or so of September.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday morning.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[Gustywind]

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL 0945 UTC:
20100827.97LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-116N-228W.100pc.jpg
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc1 ... atest.html

[HURAKAN]

70%

555
ABNT20 KNHC 271136
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 545 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1430 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS CENTERED ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

TAFB has 97L crossing 50W below 15N heading WNW. Noticed they removed the "Possible Cyclone" tag, so maybe they think 97L will remain weaker as it crosses the Atlantic. This may allow this system to develop farther west and have a greater chance to impact land as some models indicate.

[Cryomaniac]

Certainly an active basin now!

All it needs is something to form in the GOM, and something near the Azores and we could have 5 at once

*removes tongue from cheek*

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTNT21 KNGU 270700
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6N 22.8W TO 12.6N 28.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. AS OF 0600Z SATELLITE PASS SHOWS A DISTUBANCE CENTERED SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48HRS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 86
TO 88 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT, AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280700Z.//

[KWT]

Looks a bit weaker now to be honest, not as impressive as it was last night but its got the whole ocean to cross yet and the models are pretty keen on something getting going eventually.

That being said the weaker it stays probably the higher risk this is a threat down the road...

I'm onboard the possible threat train for now...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271149
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N25W 10N27W 13N29W...AND
WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N23W 13N26W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

[HURAKAN]

KWT, I'm not surprised, the same happened to both Danielle and Earl. Should still be Fiona by Monday.

[Gustywind]

It is curious that no low pressure is associated with this feature given the NHC ...

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow:
It is curious that no low pressure is associated with this feature given the NHC ...

there's a low

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:
It is curious that no low pressure is associated with this feature given the NHC ...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

there's a low

Ok thanks Hurakan But why there is no mention in the TWD?

[KWT]

KWT, I'm not surprised, the same happened to both Danielle and Earl. Should still be Fiona by Monday.

Yeah it'll probably still form but like Earl I think this one stays fairly weak for a while, maybe only starting to strengthen to any great degree at 50W...we will see how that works out!

[ColinDelia]

Lastest Dvorak: " TOO WEAK"