ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

There have been Wind Shifts between west,westsouthwest,northwest,westnorthwest winds all day long in Trinidad & Tobago.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html

Code: Select all

Latest 4 PM (20) Sep 09 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) NW 13 
 3 PM (19) Sep 09 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NNW 13 
 2 PM (18) Sep 09 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 15 
 1 PM (17) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 13 
 Noon (16) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 15 
 11 AM (15) Sep 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) WNW 15 light rain showers
 10 AM (14) Sep 09 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) W 15 light rain showers
 9 AM (13) Sep 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) W 15 
 8 AM (12) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) W 17 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 7 AM (11) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WSW 8 
 6 AM (10) Sep 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) SW 15 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 5 AM (9) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) W 15 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 4 AM (8) Sep 09 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) W 6 light rain with thunder; showers in the vicinity
 3 AM (7) Sep 09 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) WNW 13 light rain showers; showers in the vicinity
 2 AM (6) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) WNW 18 light rain showers; showers in the vicinity
 1 AM (5) Sep 09 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) W 8 
 Midnight (4) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 17 
 11 PM (3) Sep 08 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) W 17 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 10 PM (2)  No Data     
 9 PM (1) Sep 08 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WSW 6 light rain with thunder
 8 PM (0) Sep 08 77 (25) 69 (21) 29.88 (1012) W 3 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 7 PM (23) Sep 08 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) WSW 13 rain showers; showers in the vicinity
 6 PM (22)  No Data   


I guess the center must have been near Barbados around 3 p.m. local time:

[jlauderdal]

Looks to be putting out a lot of outflow boundaries this afternoon. I'd say no TD until maybe Sunday or Monday. No evidence of an LLC presently. It'll take quite a while to organize.

voice of reason 57, sunday at the earliest, this thing has a long way to go and its in a lousy position in the basin to develop

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to be putting out a lot of outflow boundaries this afternoon. I'd say no TD until maybe Sunday or Monday. No evidence of an LLC presently. It'll take quite a while to organize.

voice of reason 57, sunday at the earliest, this thing has a long way to go and its in a lousy position in the basin to develop

You're right about that...Aside from the North Atlantic isn't the Eastern Caribbean where TC's normally go to die...

SFT

[cycloneye]

its in a lousy position in the basin to develop

The Eastern Caribbean graveyard.

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France Guadeloupe and Martinique don't waste any time and prefer to be vigilant with 92L in the area. Consequently, yellow alert have been required for both islands this afternoon 5PM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Wet weather conditions are expected til Sunday morning in Guadeloupe. For those who are interrested here is the french version of the latest advisories code Yellow http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene

[hurricaneCW]

Is there any truth to the Eastern Caribbean tropical graveyard or is it a myth? And if it is true, why do storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean.

[SouthFLTropics]

Is there any truth to the Eastern Caribbean tropical graveyard or is it a myth? And if it is true, why do storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean.

I think that it has something to do with the inflow being disrupted by South America but that is just my opinion...I have nothing factual to back it up with...I'll defer to the pros to either validate my comment or correct me...

SFT

[cycloneye]

Is there any truth to the Eastern Caribbean tropical graveyard or is it a myth? And if it is true, why do storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean.

The Southamerica factor that cuts the inflow.

[Ivanhater]

It has nothing to do with storms being able to strengthen in the Eastern Caribbean..many storms have blown up there, Ivan and others. It has to do with DEVELOPING storms in that region.

[hurricaneCW]

That's what I thought, but what about the BOC, that's a land locked area and Hermine really got going in the western part of the BOC, so did Alex. It's seems to be one of the biggest hot spots for development, at least this season.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Developng storms have trouble getting inflow from South America.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

There have been Wind Shifts between west,westsouthwest,northwest,westnorthwest winds all day long in Trinidad & Tobago.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html

Code: Select all

Latest 4 PM (20) Sep 09 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) NW 13 
 3 PM (19) Sep 09 82 (28) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NNW 13 
 2 PM (18) Sep 09 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 15 
 1 PM (17) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 13 
 Noon (16) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 15 
 11 AM (15) Sep 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) WNW 15 light rain showers
 10 AM (14) Sep 09 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) W 15 light rain showers
 9 AM (13) Sep 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) W 15 
 8 AM (12) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) W 17 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 7 AM (11) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WSW 8 
 6 AM (10) Sep 09 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) SW 15 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 5 AM (9) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) W 15 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 4 AM (8) Sep 09 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) W 6 light rain with thunder; showers in the vicinity
 3 AM (7) Sep 09 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) WNW 13 light rain showers; showers in the vicinity
 2 AM (6) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) WNW 18 light rain showers; showers in the vicinity
 1 AM (5) Sep 09 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.85 (1011) W 8 
 Midnight (4) Sep 09 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 17 
 11 PM (3) Sep 08 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) W 17 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 10 PM (2)  No Data     
 9 PM (1) Sep 08 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WSW 6 light rain with thunder
 8 PM (0) Sep 08 77 (25) 69 (21) 29.88 (1012) W 3 light rain; showers in the vicinity
 7 PM (23) Sep 08 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) WSW 13 rain showers; showers in the vicinity
 6 PM (22)  No Data   


I guess the center must have been near Barbados around 3 p.m. local time:

Interesting data over there.

[Bailey1777]

if this system is doing so poorly why on the 2pm advisory did the nhc use the wording 'continues to show signs of organization'?

[chrisjslucia]

Meteo-France Guadeloupe and Martinique don't waste any time and prefer to be vigilant with 92L in the area. Consequently, yellow alert have been required for both islands this afternoon 5PM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Wet weather conditions are expected til Sunday morning in Guadeloupe. For those who are interrested here is the french version of the latest advisories code Yellow http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene

Hi Gusty, used my rusty French to read the Martinique alert. I'm puzzled by comments here and the reports from Grenada, Barbados and St Vincent as well as the Meteo's forecast for wind speeds, although rainfall of a 100mm seems consistent with experience further south.

Friends in St Vincent and Grenada say it is continuous heavy rain and little wind. Barbados reports intermittent rain and showers. I don't see how this is centred on Barbados, the position and rain seems further west and south of that, with 92 shuffling NW at a very slow speed. Any insights from your part of the island chain as to where it is and where it's headed?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRAVA IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT EITHER REMAINS STATIONARY OR MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MUSHER/KIMBERLAIN

[jlauderdal]

Is there any truth to the Eastern Caribbean tropical graveyard or is it a myth? And if it is true, why do storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean.

it really has to do with it being a poor starting point for systems, however if a system comes into the region already established then it can be real rich environment to continue the progression. bottom line, 92 is in a bad place to start but remember its forecast to move out of that region and into a more favorable environment which is what everyone is all lathered up about, its going to take a few days to have a decent opportunity to get going if it ever does at all

[wxman57]

Is there any truth to the Eastern Caribbean tropical graveyard or is it a myth? And if it is true, why do storms struggle in the Eastern Caribbean.

The eastern Caribbean is a place where the low-level trade winds typically increase in velocity, probably partially due to the presence of land to the south. This increase in low-level flow causes divergence near the surface, making it hard for thunderstorms to maintain themselves. The low-level flow typically relaxes across the NW Caribbean, resulting in surface convergence, which increases thunderstorm activity. That's why many systems don't develop until they reach the western Caribbean.

[jlauderdal]

if this system is doing so poorly why on the 2pm advisory did the nhc use the wording 'continues to show signs of organization'?

because convection is on the increase but notice how at 8 its still 40% so NHC isnt exactly expecting this thing to ramp up anytime soon, it needs to move out of there and it will, so i predict that it will take at least 300 more posts on this thread for it to attain a classified status,