ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[Squarethecircle]

ADT has finally noticed Karl's eye:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 983.6mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.7 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -24.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.9C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[HURAKAN]

Can't wait for the next pass

[cycloneye]

Definitly, the 2010 Atlantic season is breaking records and a good chunk is left. Who said it was a wimpy season?

[brunota2003]

Recon lifted up from 850mb to 700mb (for the safety of the crew), which means this next pass ought to be interesting.

[JTD]

Definitly, the 2010 Atlantic season is breaking records and a good chunk is left. Who said it was a wimpy season?

Yep, this is one of the more active seasons I've ever seen.

[CrazyC83]

There is that dreaded pinhole eye...at the WORST possible time. Brings back awful memories...

[brunota2003]

There is now blue inside of the eye, so it has cleared out nicely.

[Ad Novoxium]

Actually I think that Alex is going to be retired, the mexican news showed really serious damages, it killed almost 30 people and it's considered one of the worst disasters in northeastern Mexico.

Agreed, I think Alex is going to be gone, and I notice that if that happens, there's an odd coincidence:

The first name to appear in this slot on this list was Allen, and it was retired on its first use.
Allen was replaced by the second name - Andrew - and Andrew was retired after its second use.
Alex - #3 - replaced Andrew, and if it's retired, that would mean it got retired upon its third use.

[ROCK]

in all my years of watching this is about the smallest soon to be major I have ever seen....a real compact storm...

[brunota2003]

98 knots at flight level (using the 700mb reduction of 90% supports 88 knots at the surface). SMFR recorded winds of 84 knots. So it is at least 85 knots, with data possibly supporting 90 knots. Pressures still dropping too.

[Ptarmigan]

If Karl becomes a major hurricane, it would be the fourth this month and fifth so far this season. I predicted 5 major hurricanes and we are barely over with it. I think we could see more major hurricanes once it is over. I think we could break the record of 8 major hurricanes set in 1950.

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[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde into the eyewall: 98 kt surface winds. Seems a little high since neither the FL nor SFMR support such and the pressure hasn't fallen enough to move the intensity that much either.

[HurricaneRobert]

I think this will be another category 4 before landfall.

[bob rulz]

Does anybody else get a Tracy vibe from this storm? If this plows directly through Veracruz, it could be disastrous. Lets hope it misses any major cities...

It's a very small storm, so if it hits the right area, it could avoid major damage in a heavily-populated area. Mudslides are another issue, but it's still better than a rapidly-intensifying major hurricane plowing directly through a major city.

1950 had six straight majors (Able to Fox)
Of course in the 50's and 60's you can't rule out the probability of them missing a weak storm in there that would disrupt the streak.

Don't forget that intensities of storms back then were also often overstated because they didn't yet fully understand the relationship between flight-level and surface winds.

[Sanibel]

Think I see signs of trochoidal wobbles in the eye. Could be signs of rapid intensification. At very least landfall area is going to get a storm that was undergoing intensification at this point (which should continue).

[CrazyC83]

A direct hit on Veracruz (or just south of, putting the RFQ over the city) would require a motion of about 260 the rest of the way.

[bob rulz]

A direct hit on Veracruz (or just south of, putting the RFQ over the city) would require a motion of about 260 the rest of the way.

That's definitely a possibility though...it's moving 270. And of course, that doesn't even take into account any sudden southwestward jogs it could take before landfall.

[South Texas Storms]

this could be an absolute disaster. i hope the mexicans are ready down there.

[Cyclenall]

If I just went by satellite images it would look like a category 4 hurricane was forming currently with winds around 120 knots. It could be another hurricane that bypasses CAT3 intensity!

[CrazyC83]

105 kt FL winds just found (supporting 94 kt at the surface) and SFMR's are in the high 80s as well. There was also that 98 kt dropsonde earlier. Pressure 962mb.

Given the data, I would go 95 kt for the intensity right now.