ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Over my head]

6z HWRF -

These are graphics that I can actually see what is meant to be! Is this the most modern thing? I hope they all start looking like this.

[ROCK]

while we wait for the 0z GFS...here is the NAM at 40hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_042l.gif

[southerngale]

while we wait for the 0z GFS...here is the NAM at 40hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_042l.gif

I see you got about as much sleep as I did! I'm pretty sure we've already seen the 0z.

[ROCK]

while we wait for the 0z GFS...here is the NAM at 40hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 7_042l.gif

I see you got about as much sleep as I did! I'm pretty sure we've already seen the 0z.

12z...my bad...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif


hmmm..didnt really move much at all...

[Ivanhater]

GFS Ensembles are extremely consistent with the operational

[KWT]

We shall see what happens with the 12z models and whether they stay consistant...
Mind you excuse me if I speak nonsense for a bit, I'm just raging at England's disallowed goal.

[paintplaye]

GFS Ensembles are extremely consistent with the operational

The first couple of hours will make or break these models. I have been looking at the sat and it does seem to show a little more of a turn NW at the end.... Lets see if it holds up.

[allicat1214]

GFS Ensembles are extremely consistent with the operational

While this would be hundreds of miles away, it would still be horrible for LA and MS..... southerly winds would push the oil farther inland.

[ROCK]

GFS Ensembles are extremely consistent with the operational

thats what I was looking for IVAN....thanks....

[jinftl]

The GFS suggests a northwest to north-northwest motion should be taking place already...the reality is much more wnw....or even west. GFS is already wrong.


WHILE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ALEX APPEARS ALMOST DUE WEST...A
LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS....A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK.

Other models have much better handle on current motion...

GFS Ensembles are extremely consistent with the operational

While this would be hundreds of miles away, it would still be horrible for LA and MS..... southerly winds would push the oil farther inland.

[KWT]

I think the only reason its moving more west is because the convection is quite weak right now and the system is weaker, I think once it strengthens it may tap into the steering currents that will lift it up somewhat, though I'd be shocked if that was to the extreme as the GFS.

[Ikester]

I'm inclined to follow the euro currently. It's the only major dynamical model that has been consistent. The GFS was one of the latest calling for cyclogenesis for Alex. If the Euro shifts north at 12z, then I think we have a problem. The trend is your friend. Even the GFDL is back in south Texas. Huge windshield wiper swings like that automatically completely discredits the model, IMO.

[Ivanhater]

I think people are looking at the once smaller center rotating around a broader center that will be emerging. Still looks wnw

[paintplaye]

jinftl check out the latest GFS it has it moving straight west and then has it moving a little farther north as it gets stronger and taps into the higher level steering currents. Lets see what this GFS does.

[gatorcane]

Remember, the GFS is notorious for breaking down ridges too early. This may be another case of that. I see Alex still scooting west the past few hours (maybe a hair north of west), though long-term motion is WNW. So I agree with Jinftl, the GFS and its minion ensembles are already wrong.

[Ikester]

36 hrs...already appears to be further west this run...unless my very tired, 3 hours of sleep, eyes are deceiving me!

[jinftl]

NHC mentions 2 camps of models in latest discussion...they seem to be leaning more towards the models that show a turn back to the west before landfall.

However...subtle differences between the models
result in large differences in the ultimate track of Alex. The
GFS...Canadian and GFS ensemble mean are weaker with the central
U.S. Ridge in 4 or 5 days. As a result...these models have been
persistently taking Alex more poleward. The remaining models
suggest that a stronger ridge north of Alex will result in a more
westward turn late in the forecast period.

[paintplaye]

Exactly the same as the 6z so far:

12z:



6z:

[Ikester]

48 hours...looks like it's headed for Houston/Galveston again...