ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[artist]

Well, this will definitely be interesting to see how the advisories are issued (assuming we get a TD this afternoon) with the new guidelines. I don't think that the changes have been publicized too well. The media should definitely latch onto this thing once we get recon in there, too. As always, just my $.04...

because a penny ain't what it used to be?
Anyway, I think they will be latching onto it now. I heard it on the major cabel news networks this morning myself, saying there is the possibility and how they would have to shut odwn all work on the deepwater, etc. if it comes to bear.

[Thunder44]

On visible loop, it appears to be a broad circulation, which is partially overland. Also the lowest pressure I found in the area is 1006mb at 8am from Puerto Lempira, Honduras. There is a WNW wind at 5mph, but that would be considered light and variable:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHPL.html

MHPL 251200Z 30004KT 9999 FEW028TCU FEW030CB BKN080 26/25 Q1006 CB ENE NW TCU TD HZ

[StormClouds63]

Decent chance for tropical depression, but close proximity to land may prohibit further intensification. I don't think this system will be Alex.

[KWT]

Circulation is very obvious when you look at the High resolution Sat.imagery, it really is right on the top northern edge of the deep convection...heading nearly due west at the moment...

Up around 16.6-16.8 and 82.5W right now.

[artist]

question - all the buoys in that area are actually rising in pressure at the moment. It is only in .00 such as .03, etc. but shouldn't they be falling some? Your thoughts?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ConvergenceZone]

The good news is that according to the TV, there doesn't seem to be any reason to think the storm will go east of the texas mexican border...This is great news in that we need to keep this tropical storm(if it does get to that level) out of the oil spill area.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Based on where the NHC places the Low it is on northen edge of the convection which leads me to beleive it's moving NW. Going to miss the Honduran coast.

[Frank2]

Very broad center ATTM - certainly too weak to pinpoint an exact center of circulation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[KWT]

Easily going to miss the Hounduran coast, it'll have to move WSW from where it is to hit the coast from where it is.

The NHC estimate is pretty much exactly where the Sat.imagery suggests it is, as you'd expect. Now we have an actual LLC (even if its not closed!) it does add validity to those estimates from the NHC.

BTW...you have to look at the high resolution Sat.imagery because the NHC floaters aren't high enough resolution to catch the LLC with any real clairity, esp with some of it under the convection, you can only really see the broader circulation.

[Bocadude85]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Based on where the NHC places the Low it is on northen edge of the convection which leads me to beleive it's moving NW. Going to miss the Honduran coast.

As far as I can tell its on the northern edge of the convection and appears to be becoming better organized in my opinion.

[ROCK]

Frank its there...NW corner of the blob off Honduras. Look through the high clouds...low clouds give it away.....weak LLC .....

[Stormcenter]

IMO it still looks very disorganized.

93L is really consolidating now - could be a TD by the time RECON arrives. Need it for an accurate fix on the center as it may still be elongated. One thing I noticed reviewing the water vapor is an ULL now located in the central gulf. Not sure how much of an influence this will have on shear and track down the road. These pesky ULLs seem to sometimes create havoc on intensity and track forecasts.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Frank2]

Frank its there...NW corner of the blob off Honduras. Look through the high clouds...low clouds give it away.....weak LLC .....

That's true, but it appears to be part of a broader circulation...

[Bocadude85]

Convection continues to fire and appears to be wrapping around the LLC


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

[KWT]

That's true, but it appears to be part of a broader circulation...

Yeah thats true as well, but that being said the LLC does IMO seem to be tightening up in that location on the N/NW side of the convection which would make plenty of sense.

I'm still 50-50 as to whether its closed right now though...

If recon find a closed LLC it'll be almost instantly upgraded.

[x-y-no]

I'm not at all convinced there's a closed circulation yet. It could be there under the convection, but as of now I'm seeing a sharp wave with winds shifting from ESE to NNE up at the northwest end of the convection. I'm not seeing any north wind, let alone anything west of north.

Recon will tell us for sure. of course.

[eastcoastFL]

Whats all the stuff to the east? It looks interesting.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Based on where the NHC places the Low it is on northen edge of the convection which leads me to beleive it's moving NW. Going to miss the Honduran coast.

Still new to finding lows within invests, might you bear with me in this question?

Studying the NHC link you reference, by engaging "fronts" and "lat/long", I see a vertical yellow line with 1006 (mb) at 17 and 82 outlined.

Is this the "Low" you reference as placed or must I put more parameters on (engaging the "low" box didn't pop up any marker)?

Thank you anyone for answering.

[HurrMark]

At this point it looks like an Old Mexico storm...looks like the trough moving in early next week should miss the system. This should also help keep the system over land for much of the next few days...keeping its intensity in check. If this pans out, this will be great news for the Gulf Coast.

Of course, the media will hype this up big time, even if the storm doesn't pass within 500 miles of the oil...they are already starting, even without this being a depression.

Darn, was looking for a little ts in florida this weekend.

Sorry...but it's a long season, so there will be ample opportunity for a TS.

For some reason, I do think this year will be like 2008...with a decent number of western Gulf systems. I think that's one of the analog years, right?