ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[dwsqos2]

I wonder if weak area of low pressure to Tomas' west is negatively impacting it. That is, do we have competing areas of surface convergence?

I think the gfs sends some combo of the two areas into Haiti.


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[Gustywind]

[dwsqos2]

Yeah, recon data suggests not all that much organization.

[cycloneye]

Yeah, recon data suggests not all that much organization.

They have not made a pass thru center.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[dwsqos2]

You might want to notice where the plane is flying; pretty far to the southwest of the 15Z postion. Winds have been light at 850 mb, and the directions have been all over the place. That is, it isn't very consolidated.

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^
Your gonna wait till the thing is shooting out miles and miles of Black IR convection to say the thing looks like a mess dwsqos2? Where were you at yesterday?


Like I said last night, a circulation so vigorous it forms in an anomalous location is just simply not going to quit. Also, pro mets have stated Recon data supports a nicely well organized center and model support for rapid intensification is there as well as environmental dynamics. 75% chance of a major imo.

[dwsqos2]

Actually, based on recon data, the current circulation is not that well-organized. I wish the plane were flying at a lower altitude. And, I'm not cancelling the storm.

This morning the storm was much more organized. Again, I am not cancelling the storm.

[SouthDadeFish]

Actually, based on recon data, the current circulation is not vigorous. And, I'm not cancelling the storm.

This morning the storm was much more organized. Again, I am not cancelling the storm.

Agreed. Recon data not impressive at all.

[Ntxw]

Still not tightening up. But continues the on and off flares. Very broad looking, of course it's what happens underneath that counts.

[guyclaude08]

In Santiago it has been raining since this morning and I notice the wind has pick up also any explanation for this ????

[cycloneye]

In Santiago it has been raining since this morning and I notice the wind has pick up also any explanation for this ????

Nothing directly related to Tropical Storm Tomas.Those are very outer bands bringing scattered showers moving from east to west there.

[cycloneye]

Decoded first VDM of this mission. Interesting remarks at the end of message.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 17:46Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:06:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°26'N 74°03'W (13.4333N 74.05W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 232 miles (373 km) to the NNE (26°) from Cartagena, Colombia.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,475m (4,839ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 15kts (~ 17.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SSE (147°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 259° at 9kts (From the W at ~ 10.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SSE (156°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph) in the east quadrant at 16:02:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSE (157°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
DID SMALL BOX PATTERN TO CONFIRM CIRCULATION AT 850 MB
INBOUND LEG WAS ABBREVIATED DUE TO BOX PATTERN
STRONG BAND OF CELLS IN NW CORNER BUT WITH OPPOSITE CURVATURE THAN EXPECTED

[GCANE]

Raw T# 5.8

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt21L.html

[wxman57]

Tomas doesn't appear to be very well organized at all. In fact, no evidence of TS winds yet, though the plane did report one 33kt SFMR.

[Fego]

Hurricane or storm, looks like that the proyected path will send the stronger side over Hispaniola terrain. I called my sister in D.R. and advised her to activate an emergency plan inmediately. She already called her friends and coworkers that live in Santiago and the west side of the island.

pardon the off topic but... !What a feeling, Go Giants!

[TCmet]

Tomas doesn't appear to be very well organized at all. In fact, no evidence of TS winds, and only marginal evidence of a TD.

You have to admit however, that convection has been persistent and intense today. In my opinion, just a matter of time before it coalesces around the center.... RI probabilities are quite high right now.

[cycloneye]

Raw T# 5.8

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt21L.html

How did they come up with that very high number, if TS force winds have not been found at the present mission? They upped to 4.0 now?

[cycloneye]

These ssd dvorak are more credible than that very bullish ADT.Where is the eye that ADT says it has?

02/1745 UTC 13.5N 73.9W T2.5/2.5 TOMAS -- Atlantic