ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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CrazyC83
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#1361 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:09 pm

Looks to be a closed circulation at 16.8N 83.1W - looks like a TD with 25 kt winds and a 1006mb pressure.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1362 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:09 pm

Lowest pressure so far=1005.4 mbs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1363 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:Lowest pressure so far=1005.4 mbs


Now I see that. Waiting for a Vortex message.
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#1364 Postby Frank2 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:12 pm

A few "light and variables" in the last set - nothing to get in a (cyclonic) spin over (lol)...
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Re:

#1365 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:13 pm

Frank2 wrote:A few "light and variables" in the last set - nothing to get in a (cyclonic) spin over (lol)...


20 kt or so SFMR is hardly "light and variable". I'd say it is a well-defined closed circulation and a fairly tight one too.
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Re: Re:

#1366 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:15 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Frank2 wrote:A few "light and variables" in the last set - nothing to get in a (cyclonic) spin over (lol)...


20 kt or so SFMR is hardly "light and variable". I'd say it is a well-defined closed circulation and a fairly tight one too.



Well, the nearest thing to west winds were pretty light and variable, unless I missed something.
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Re: Re:

#1367 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:15 pm

x-y-no wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Frank2 wrote:A few "light and variables" in the last set - nothing to get in a (cyclonic) spin over (lol)...


20 kt or so SFMR is hardly "light and variable". I'd say it is a well-defined closed circulation and a fairly tight one too.



Well, the nearest thing to west winds were pretty light and variable, unless I missed something.


The SFMR column in that 304 was 19 kt.
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#1368 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:16 pm

Image

and we have west wind
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#1369 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:16 pm

No depression yet, IMO. Not well defined enough. Maybe they'll find more evidence.
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#1370 Postby MGC » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:18 pm

Not 100% convinced there is a surface circulation, but 93L looks a lot better in terms or organization today. Looks like a healthy mid level circulation though. No way this misses the Yucatan. How fast the system deepens will depend on the future track. Shallow towards Mexico, deep more to the NW I think.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1371 Postby Frank2 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:18 pm

I agree with x-y-no...

Per the 20 knot ob, there were a few errors or questionable data in that last set, so not sure about that wind...

As the other poster said, still waiting (for more data)...
Last edited by Frank2 on Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1372 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
The SFMR column in that 304 was 19 kt.


Flight level 4 knots, surface level 19 knots? That seems pretty dodgy to me.

Even if the SFMR windspeed is legit, do we know it was a west wind?
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#1373 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:19 pm

I think we may have TD #1 coming up.


(Off topic: Today was the day I learned I was accepting into the Meteorology Program at ULM. I am proud to be able to potentially acquire a degree in such an amazing field)
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#1374 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:19 pm

If they declare it is NOT a TD yet, they would issue a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement at normal advisory time, correct?
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Re: Re:

#1375 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:20 pm

x-y-no wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
The SFMR column in that 304 was 19 kt.


Flight level 4 knots, surface level 19 knots? That seems pretty dodgy to me.

Even if the SFMR windspeed is legit, do we know it was a west wind?


304 degrees is NW, followed by 237 which is WSW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1376 Postby year_2005 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:22 pm

i made a rough pictures of the wind vectors on paper and i am probably wrong but it looks like there is at least some type of closed circlulation, does this mean that it is possible that there is a tropical depression?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1377 Postby Thunder44 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:23 pm

They just found more stronger SE winds just south of the light west winds at flight level. I don't think we have a fix yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - DISCUSSION

#1378 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:23 pm

year_2005 wrote:i made a rough pictures of the wind vectors on paper and i am probably wrong but it looks like there is at least some type of closed circlulation, does this mean that it is possible that there is a tropical depression?


If the NHC believes it is well-defined enough, it would be a tropical depression.
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Re:

#1379 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If they declare it is NOT a TD yet, they would issue a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement at normal advisory time, correct?


They've discontinued Special Tropical Disturbance Statements in favor of Special TWOs. I would speculate that if the mission doesn't find anything, they would release a special TWO to put out that info.
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Re: Re:

#1380 Postby x-y-no » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:24 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:304 degrees is NW, followed by 237 which is WSW.


Yeah - at flight level. And the flight level windspeeds in that sequence were 6 knots, 4 knots, 2 knots.

And from that we're supposed to be confident that a 19 knot SFMR reading (followed by several flagged SFMR numbers) is a genuine 19 knot west wind?

I need more than that - SFMR can be wrong, and it doesn't include a surface wind direction.
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