ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Gaston looks very close to TD again at this point. Convection still needs to fire up some more before it can be called.

they just had a plane out there, no center=no upgrade, a little bit of increase in convection isn't going to do it

[msbee]

"HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM."

Given the above and the fact that there are traditionally many tourists on the islands over Labor Day, would it not be prudent to post some sort of warning for the N. Leewards? Granted, the tourist bureau isn't fond of unduly upsetting the tourist trade but on the other hand, I would hate to see some folks get a big surprise after being out celebrating later tonight.

I feel certain most of the islanders are well aware of what is happening on their doorsteps.

Lynn

I don't think a Tropical Storm Warning holds much importance. Heavy showers and winds to 40-50 are not a real big deal. When we get to Hurricane Watch or Warning it is a whole new game but TS warnings, to me; are pretty meaningless

gee ,thanks fci!
well, they aren't meaningless to us here in the islands...tropical storms or tropical storm warnings.
Even tropical storms can cause a lot of damage to the fragile ecosystems on the islands.

[Sihara]

Even tropical storms can cause a lot of damage to the fragile ecosystems on the islands.

Yeah, they aren't insignificant. Allison in TX - I think it was Allison - caused terrible flooding, and there was some bad flooding in Melbourne with Fay, also a tropical storm. And didn't Mitch cause a lot of grief when it was "only" a tropical storm?

Any cyclonic storm is capable of causing serious damage.

[fci]

"HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM."

Given the above and the fact that there are traditionally many tourists on the islands over Labor Day, would it not be prudent to post some sort of warning for the N. Leewards? Granted, the tourist bureau isn't fond of unduly upsetting the tourist trade but on the other hand, I would hate to see some folks get a big surprise after being out celebrating later tonight.

I feel certain most of the islanders are well aware of what is happening on their doorsteps.

Lynn

I don't think a Tropical Storm Warning holds much importance. Heavy showers and winds to 40-50 are not a real big deal. When we get to Hurricane Watch or Warning it is a whole new game but TS warnings, to me; are pretty meaningless

gee ,thanks fci!
well, they aren't meaningless to us here in the islands...tropical storms or tropical storm warnings.
Even tropical storms can cause a lot of damage to the fragile ecosystems on the islands.

I am not minimizing the damage a TS can, and does, cause; I am referring to the use of the word "warning" and its connotation.
If you are given a weather forecast that calls for heavy rain and gusty winds (like how it is worded above) vs. a TS Warning; do you react any differently?
I would also venture to say that living in the islands with the vulnerability to flooding and the time and effort it takes to clean up; that you are also vigilant when a Tropical Depression or strong Tropical Wave passes through.
Do you suggest "warnings" for those too?
Where do you draw the line to where people will still pay close attention, not just in the Islands but in the CONUS too?
If they see "warnings" frequently, don't they begin to downplay their importance?
I am most concerned with the overuse of "warning" and feel they should be reserved for only biggest events, like a hurricane.
In no way am I downplaying the effects tropical systems have on the Islands. They are a way of life for your folks

[fasterdisaster]

Gaston looks very close to TD again at this point. Convection still needs to fire up some more before it can be called.

they just had a plane out there, no center=no upgrade, a little bit of increase in convection isn't going to do it

Was recon actually unable to find an LLC? Or just unable to fix it?

[Gustywind]

[Bailey1777]

i thought we had a good pass with the ascat showing a closed circulation

[supercane]

That was the surprising thing to me, too. ASCAT showed a great LLCC, but recon tried for hours and couldn't close the circulation. Perhaps we're seeing the first steps to degeneration down to an open wave?

[hurricaneCW]

It's continuing to degenerate and I'm ready to write this one off. The shear looks to be increasing, not decreasing and the presentation is pathetic. Perhaps it'll have a shot in the Western Caribbean but I highly doubt it.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like a patience issue has arisen with this system as well. Happened with the same system that became Katrina. Not everything will turn into a hurricane in 24 hours.

I am actually more concerned with these type systems that traverse the ATL "under the Radar" and miss the weakness in the Atlantic. We have a nice looking system with evidence of a LLC producing its own convection. It is September and once this reaches the Western Caribbean/Bahamas region, the potential is tremendous.

[Florida1118]

Mmmmh...Im still going to wait until 70W. I doubt ASCAT made up the LLC. Like Ivan said, Its not going to be a Major in a day. Kinda like "Rome wasnt built in a day"?

[hurricaneCW]

Storms that spin up generally have a well defined LLC but are completely void of convection until they reach a certain point. This one did have a well defined LLC for a while but it appears to have degenerated into an open wave. An LLC can only last so long void of convection. This one had days to put something together but it's not getting better organized as it moves further west, but rather more disorganized.

Also remember, that not many systems can spin up like Katrina or Wilma did, the conditions have to be very favorable and clearly that is not the case with this disturbance.

[Gustywind]

Exposed?!

[chrisnnavarre]

Looks like on the last visible I looked at there was still a circulation and he was scooting his booty due westward through the central lesser Antilles Islands. I think this is going to be a player in a the day or so. Lets give it overnight and see what what we have in the morning. Actually, I think if Gaston makes it south of PR he's really gonna intensify and we may have our first major concern of the season. Bad location for the North Central to Eastern Gulf Coast however.

[Ivanhater]

Storms that spin up generally have a well defined LLC but are completely void of convection until they reach a certain point. This one did have a well defined LLC for a while but it appears to have degenerated into an open wave. An LLC can only last so long void of convection. This one had days to put something together but it's not getting better organized as it moves further west, but rather more disorganized.

Also remember, that not many systems can spin up like Katrina or Wilma did, the conditions have to be very favorable and clearly that is not the case with this disturbance.

It doesn't have to keep the original LLC the entire trip across the ATL, THAT would be rare. An open sharp wave is more than enough once in the western Caribbean/Bahamas in September. I think ex Gaston is doing exactly what he needed to do (continually producing concentrated convection) to be a problem in a couple days...

[bvigal]

That was a good ascat pass, but at 9:02am EDT, when we could see the circulation on visible sat, about 6hrs before the recon was there.

Warnings and watches issued by NWS/NHC have closely-defined meanings, often written in the text of the product. Any type of warning means possibly hazardous conditions are expected within a certain time period.
Tropical storms can have winds up to 73mph, and gusts much higher. High enough for a flying piece of debris to injure you badly, or kill you. There is also a type of WARNING issued for thunderstorms with high wind gusts, heavy rain, reduced visibility, frequent lightning, it's called a THUNDERSTORM WARNING.

I'm not saying I think they should begin TD advisories on Gaston, if he doesn't meet the requirements. It really looks like the LLC is gone. I would have waited a bit longer to cancel him in the first place, because I've seen systems that lost nearly all convection and had a few more advisories before being dropped. I think the decision was more based upon the demands of Earl and other systems. But that's water under the bridge, with no bearing on the current status of Gaston. In the past 2 days, I'm confident that NHC has kept a very close eye on this system and would have upgraded it, if conditions warranted.

And lastly... 11years in the tropics I've often marveled at how gentle the weather is here, compared to the storms that roar through tornado alley, where I grew up. We do have thunderstorms, but they are usually not violent, and a wind gust over 40kt is REALLY AN EVENT, and if unexpected, often causes injuries to boaters. There are outdoor restaurants, bars, porch furniture, little roadside shacks selling fresh tropical fruit, sailboats on moorings, whalers tied to mangroves, and dingys pulled up on beaches. This is our charm, this is why people love it and come to relax.

Our rains are usually gentle, too, and don't last very long. When we get tropical-system rain, it falls in such density, and lasts longer, it can't drain into the sea fast enough, and flooding occurs. Along our roads, big rocks the size of your car come down, along with mud and smaller rocks. On the hillsides, sometimes the rock/mud slides just race right through homes. When a system isn't organized enough to have advisories from NHC, the local Met services will issue watches and warnings for all hazards - hopefully local residents pay attention.

[fci]

Looks like a patience issue has arisen with this system as well. Happened with the same system that became Katrina. Not everything will turn into a hurricane in 24 hours.

I am actually more concerned with these type systems that traverse the ATL "under the Radar" and miss the weakness in the Atlantic. We have a nice looking system with evidence of a LLC producing its own convection. It is September and once this reaches the Western Caribbean/Bahamas region, the potential is tremendous.

While what you saying is inherently correct, this is not a situation where people grew bored because "Remnant Low Gaston" did not become a hurricane in 24 hours. It has been days now, since Thursday; that this system was declassified and the posts and conjecture since then have been non-stop with talk of regineration into a Hurricane or at least a Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression.

I can't fault people for being weary of it.
And, YES; any system this time of year has the potential to be another Katrina or Andrew that came back from the "dead" to be historic.
However, there are probably hundreds that didn't.......

[TCmet]

tcmet havent seen a pros take on gaston in a while. many on here have wanted to sign his death certificate i on the other hand believe he will be a major in the gom what do you think?

Honestly, I think it's still too soon to tell. The slow moving TUTT over the central Carib has complicated matters, and if you look at the WV loop, moisture doesn't REALLY pick up until after Hispaniola. So it's a coin-toss through the islands, but I still think there's a good chance that this one is destined to be reclassified at some point in the next 5 days.

[HurricaneQueen]

I didn't mean to cause a stir about (please note the wording) "some sort of warning". A tropical storm warning may be overdoing it but I do subscribe to the idea of a special tropical weather statement issued as BatzVI suggested. This would be broadcast on the local radio stations so people are not caught unaware of potential tropical storm force gusts and locally heavy downpours, especially at night.

fci, I, too, am in Florida and would see such a "warning" as overkill here in this case but the islands are subject to flooding, mud and rock slides particularly after loosing much of their vegetation to Earl. Also, there are people visiting from all over the world who have never felt such gusts and might be unaware of the oftentimes dark roads underwater until its too late. It doesn't hurt to be cautious and at least let people who are often out to all hours of the night be aware that all may not be perfect in paradise tonight and tomorrow.

Of course, this is all a moot point since the decision is up to the government of the various islands. Enough said.

Lynn
P.S to all our friends who may have some sort of impact from "Gaston", please be safe down there in the Caribbean.

[Florida1118]

Looks like a patience issue has arisen with this system as well. Happened with the same system that became Katrina. Not everything will turn into a hurricane in 24 hours.

I am actually more concerned with these type systems that traverse the ATL "under the Radar" and miss the weakness in the Atlantic. We have a nice looking system with evidence of a LLC producing its own convection. It is September and once this reaches the Western Caribbean/Bahamas region, the potential is tremendous.

While what you saying is inherently correct, this is not a situation where people grew bored because "Remnant Low Gaston" did not become a hurricane in 24 hours. It has been days now, since Thursday; that this system was declassified and the posts and conjecture since then have been non-stop with talk of regineration into a Hurricane or at least a Tropical Storm or Tropical Depression.

I can't fault people for being weary of it.
And, YES; any system this time of year has the potential to be another Katrina or Andrew that came back from the "dead" to be historic.
However, there are probably hundreds that didn't.......

I agree. I mean this has bounced from 60-80% for...what 3-4 days? Theres been at least twise when "Could develop into a TD at anytime" and we all think its gonna get it...but then it dies and its back down to "conditions appear favorable for slow development" and I wish it would do 1 or the other. I do believe still he will regenerate but its staring to look like a 98L again