ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

cwachal · #1381 Postby **cwachal** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:27 pm

I think the center is further east from where they supposedly found a center

#1382 Postby **Cookie** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:27 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I think we may have TD #1 coming up.

(Off topic: Today was the day I learned I was accepting into the Meteorology Program at ULM. I am proud to be able to potentially acquire a degree in such an amazing field)

congrats ,mate

#1383 Postby **chzzdekr81** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:29 pm

What time will the Recon Aircraft go into the storm?

#1384 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:29 pm

I think they missed the center as well. Ill defined and all.

rockyman · #1385 Postby **rockyman** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:29 pm

The internet is starting to light up with "TD #1 has formed" chatter

#1386 Postby **BigA** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:29 pm

Up to 80% per latest TWO

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GRAND
CAYMAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SYSTEM TO
DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM AT ANY TIME LATER TODAY OR
SATURDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM...ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

I would say that I am of the "It may well be a TD now, but if not now, probably in 6-12 hours" camp.

x-y-no · #1387 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:30 pm

chzzdekr81 wrote:What time will the Recon Aircraft go into the storm?

They're in there now.

#1388 Postby **chzzdekr81** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:30 pm

rockyman wrote:The internet is starting to light up with "TD #1 has formed" chatter

That's what everyone is tweeting on Twitter...

#1389 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:31 pm

chzzdekr81 wrote:
rockyman wrote:The internet is starting to light up with "TD #1 has formed" chatter

That's what everyone is tweeting on Twitter...

That's false unless someone inside the NHC is leaking some information.

rockyman · #1390 Postby **rockyman** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:32 pm

I think the source is another message board that is reporting this information, based solely on that suspect west wind.

#1391 Postby **RL3AO** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:34 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I see no sign of a tropical depression. There is a LLC, but its not a well defined one. There are light winds on the south side of the circulation. So far recon has shown a developing system, but not yet a depression.

MortisFL · #1392 Postby **MortisFL** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:34 pm

From Mexico to the FL Panhandle....lol basically the entire gulf is on guard.

#1393 Postby **thetruesms** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:43 pm

chzzdekr81 wrote:
rockyman wrote:The internet is starting to light up with "TD #1 has formed" chatter

That's what everyone is tweeting on Twitter...

Precisely why news by Twitter always makes me a little bit nervous.

#1394 Postby **wx247** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:47 pm

Unless we see something more convincing in the near term, I do not believe that we have TD 1 this afternoon. Will keep watching though in case more valid evidence exists. And thanks to S2K for not jumping the gun and already calling it something it isn't.

#1395 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:50 pm

Clearly see the NW motion

Weatherfreak000 · #1396 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:53 pm

This thing is coming together in a hurry...its moving into the anticyclone area as opposed to away from it.

Definitely am not discounting it intensifying rapidly.

#1397 Postby **BigA** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:57 pm

I don't think it's a TD now, by the slimmest of margins, but I think that it will be a TD in 6 hours and a TS in 18. It is really, really looking better, and you can see increasing low (and higher) clouds streaming into the center from the west. If these west winds aren't at the surface, they are mighty close, and will be soon.

SoupBone · #1398 Postby **SoupBone** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 1:57 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:This thing is coming together in a hurry...its moving into the anticyclone area as opposed to away from it.

Definitely am not discounting it intensifying rapidly.

What are you basing this on? Nothing this system has done so far has been "in a hurry". :cheesy:

Weatherfreak000 · #1399 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 2:00 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:This thing is coming together in a hurry...its moving into the anticyclone area as opposed to away from it.

Definitely am not discounting it intensifying rapidly.

What are you basing this on? Nothing this system has done so far has been "in a hurry".

Basing this only on the current satellite trends, the fact the pro mets were proclaiming development for today, the sst's and the anticyclone.

#1400 Postby **ColdFusion** » Fri Jun 25, 2010 2:00 pm

I-wall wrote:I'm not at all sold on 93L. Still looks pretty bad to me. The upper level high is staying in front of 93L creating constant shear.

Please, tell us more.

ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

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