ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[plasticup]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html

there is the weakness between the 2 highs....very narrow...

The models actually show that East Coast high moving to the right (closing Danielle's trough) and Earl moving up behind it

As one would expect, then the trough comes through from the Great Lakes late week that will break the East Coast Heat Wave.

I wouldn't be surprised if Earl was what broke your heat wave The CMC model shows him skirting the whole east coast

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib: http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/antigua.shtml

- - Antigua - -
- 51 mph squall
By eli fuller <eliantigua at gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2010 16:17:14 -0400

My friend Ian Deane said that he just recorded 51 mph in a wicked squall here in Jolly Harbour's north finger. Got some cool video and will try and upload.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@ plasticup Well it is the trough that picks him up that should break it, either way lol.

[Ivanhater]

[ColinDelia]

Earl. Now


Dvorak Examples:



Dvorak MWS MWS MSLP
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic)
1 25 KTS 29 MPH
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb

[Aric Dunn]

@ plasticup Well it is the trough that picks him up that should break it, either way lol.

First what supposed to turn earl wnw and NW is a weak upper trough near Cuba. then it gets far enough north so that when the shortwave trough over the great lakes in a few days will pick it up and turn it N then NE. however the upper trough is weak and there is a low to MId level Ridge that has built in north of Earl so the upper trough and the Ridge are going to be competing so if the upper trough does not turn it enough then the shortwave trough may not pick it up ... still plenty of uncertainty..

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO, it looks like Earl has resumed a mostly west motion after moving WNW earlier today, or am I seeing things?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[pgoss11]

Earl seems to be really getting his act together. Intensifying nicely.

[Aric Dunn]

IMO, it looks like Earl has resumed a mostly west motion after moving WNW earlier today, or am I seeing things?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I was going to mention that but was waiting to see if it persisted.. Radar seems to show its more westerly again.. recon is out now so we will know shortly

[terrapintransit]

IMO, it looks like Earl has resumed a mostly west motion after moving WNW earlier today, or am I seeing things?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Looks west to me, too..

[plasticup]

@ ColinDelia: I'm seeing deeper convection that T4, but not the organization of T5. So... T4.5? 77ish knots?

[fd122]

Weather has really picked up here! Heavy rain, wind, thunder...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@ plasticup Well it is the trough that picks him up that should break it, either way lol.

First what supposed to turn earl wnw and NW is a weak upper trough near Cuba. then it gets far enough north so that when the shortwave trough over the great lakes in a few days will pick it up and turn it N then NE. however the upper trough is weak and there is a low to MId level Ridge that has built in north of Earl so the upper trough and the Ridge are going to be competing so if the upper trough does not turn it enough then the shortwave trough may not pick it up ... still plenty of uncertainty..

I of course was speaking long term, five day plus range.

[pgoss11]

IMO, it looks like Earl has resumed a mostly west motion after moving WNW earlier today, or am I seeing things?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Very little, if any, northern component

[plasticup]

IMO, it looks like Earl has resumed a mostly west motion after moving WNW earlier today, or am I seeing things?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think the convective burst on the north side gives that illusion, but the center hasn't gained much latitude.

[Aric Dunn]

@ plasticup Well it is the trough that picks him up that should break it, either way lol.

First what supposed to turn earl wnw and NW is a weak upper trough near Cuba. then it gets far enough north so that when the shortwave trough over the great lakes in a few days will pick it up and turn it N then NE. however the upper trough is weak and there is a low to MId level Ridge that has built in north of Earl so the upper trough and the Ridge are going to be competing so if the upper trough does not turn it enough then the shortwave trough may not pick it up ... still plenty of uncertainty..

I of course was speaking long term, five day plus range.

well I covered it through that time.. the shortwave will take it beyond 5 days... if it misses the trough then it could stall

[HURAKAN]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 982.6mb/ 74.6kt

agreeable

[plasticup]

if it misses the trough then it could stall

And just hack its way west from PR to Cuba? Or would it even dip into the Caribbean Sea?

[Danny MD]

I agree earl is back to moving westward. The WNW must have just been a wobble.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@ Aric Dunn True, and if it stalls then all bets are off imo.