ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[smw1981]

Storm2K more reliable!

haha...totally agree Wx warrior!! I don't know what I would do without S2k for info during hurricane season!

[Derek Ortt]

Unforunately, I have no floater for this system. Both floaters are occupied

however, one can use the Miami or Gulf sectors

[CrazyC83]

so am I going to get a lot of rain and wind out of this tomorrow and monday?

Only if it makes a right turn. If it does, expect considerable rain and wind. Otherwise it should stay to the west of you.

thanks, the local mets at 11 were too busy focused on Ana and Bill to even mention this and I keep seeing head inland tomorrow on this thread...gotta camp to run and gotta make sure the kids are safe!

They should have been paying more attention to this system, as it would be an immediate threat. Tropical storm warnings would be required immediately if they declare this TD4.

[CronkPSU]

thanks, the local mets at 11 were too busy focused on Ana and Bill to even mention this and I keep seeing head inland tomorrow on this thread...gotta camp to run and gotta make sure the kids are safe!

They should have been paying more attention to this system, as it would be an immediate threat. Tropical storm warnings would be required immediately if they declare this TD4.

oh I agree...but no name=no ratings, they stuck to the names for their coverage...and man did they overkill the twin named storms that are still days away...that is why i support this website, always been the most accurate and info packed place on the web for storms

[Aric Dunn]

SAT images tonight do show a lot of good spin on this. It's good that it should be inland before it can ramp up though, seems to be on an organizing trend.

IR loop of GOM:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

yes, and thats the thing.... if you have been in these things like i have, no matter what strength it maybe, a strengthening system coming ashore is certainly one that can cause some troubles... even if it makes to t.s. status, it may very well be on the up swing and there is a stark difference in the effects... just have to wait and see...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

yes a strengthening system winds are much more sustained... with much more frequent gusts ..

[jinftl]

Luckily the local mets at 11 aren't the ones who need to be on top of this....rest assured, this system has not fallen through the cracks by the NHC. They have done alot more than handle 2 ts at one time.

They should have been paying more attention to this system, as it would be an immediate threat. Tropical storm warnings would be required immediately if they declare this TD4.

[Sanibel]

Nice little unexpected evening cyclogenesis here. Shaking the vegetation right now.



NOAA Satellite is off for the weekend. No additional Floater for now.

[Sabanic]

Definitely something to keep our eyes on

[gatorcane]

Personally I would have given it a code orange or even red at this point, but hey the NHC must see something I don't.

Looks like a spot of RED now showing up on IR indicating colder cloud tops are forming, and more organization possibly. Surely this is more than code yellow right?

[Aric Dunn]

Nice little unexpected evening cyclogenesis here. Shaking the vegetation right now.



NHC is off for the weekend. No additional Floater for now.

floater is here.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

[jinftl]

or you see something they don't!!! As of last update, they see no signs of surface circulation.

Personally I would have given it a code orange or even red at this point, but hey the NHC must see something I don't.

Looks like a spot of RED now showing up on IR....

[Sanibel]

If you heard the winds hitting my house right now there would be no question over code red.

[CrazyC83]

It may very well get upgraded to Code Orange or Red at the 2:00 am update. Its organization has mostly been in the last 4 hours after all!

[gatorcane]

If you heard the winds hitting my house right now there would be no question over code red.

I believe you we had about 30mph sustained with gusts to 45mph in a squal that spun around this thing late afternoon today. That usually happens if something tropical is down to our Southwest.

[drezee]

Personally I would have given it a code orange or even red at this point, but hey the NHC must see something I don't.

We have been down this road before...last year a bonified strong TS hit the carolinas that was not named. It seems to need to be anticipated in order to be named in some cases...not all...but some...

[jinftl]

again, organized surface circulation is the key....strong convection with gusty squalls does not necessarily mean that there is an organizing system. No wind reports from buoys or florida suggest a circulation is at the surface.

If you heard the winds hitting my house right now there would be no question over code red.

[vacanechaser]

looking more impressive by the minute on sat.. so much for the warming cloud tops... we will see what the nhc says at 2am...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[jinftl]

Then the other camp will cry that they are naming storms that don't merit it in order to increase season totals....there is no reason to believe the nhc isn't watching this....convection does not mean an organizing system necessarily

Personally I would have given it a code orange or even red at this point, but hey the NHC must see something I don't.

We have been down this road before...last year a bonified strong TS hit the carolinas that was not named. It seems to need to be anticipated in order to be named in some cases...not all...but some...

[Aric Dunn]

looking more impressive by the minute on sat.. so much for the warming cloud tops... we will see what the nhc says at 2am...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

yeah that "convection" is so predictable ..lol

[CYCLONE MIKE]

i hear there is a possible high pressure pushing down would that block it and send it west?

I haven't seen or heard anything like that.

Where did you hear that? If you have a link, please post it.

Actually I read it earlier as well. Did not say anything about blocking the system but can see how that can come to conclusion. Came from the NWS out of Key West earlier this evening. Basically said tropical wave exiting by midnight with strong ridge building in the SE US and expanding westward overnight through Sunday. Will see if I can find it.