SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1243 UTC 16/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 157.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: north [000 deg]
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 938 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0000: 13.7S 157.7E: 050 [095]: 100 [185]: 938
+24: 17/1200: 14.8S 158.1E: 080 [150]: 100 [185]: 938
+36: 18/0000: 15.5S 158.7E: 110 [210]: 100 [185]: 938
+48: 18/1200: 16.7S 158.8E: 145 [270]: 100 [185]: 938
+60: 19/0000: 17.8S 158.3E: 190 [355]: 100 [185]: 938
+72: 19/1200: 19.3S 156.7E: 240 [445]: 100 [185]: 938
REMARKS:
Eye pattern with LG surround and DG centre and banding feature of 0.5, giving DT
of 5.5. MET and PT both suggest 5.0. Final T based on DT as it appears clear.

Expect upper steering winds associated with the system to become more northerly
during the next 24 hours as an upper trough erodes the mid level ridge to the
south. From Thursday onwards a new mid-level ridge will develop south of the
system and steering winds should become more NE'ly and turn the Tropical Cyclone
on a more westerly course.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1831 UTC 16/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 157.8E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 937 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 85 nm [155 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 85 nm [155 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 85 nm [155 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 85 nm [155 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm [295 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0600: 14.2S 157.9E: 040 [075]: 100 [185]: 938
+24: 17/1800: 14.9S 158.2E: 070 [130]: 100 [185]: 938
+36: 18/0600: 15.7S 158.5E: 100 [190]: 100 [185]: 938
+48: 18/1800: 16.8S 158.4E: 135 [250]: 100 [185]: 939
+60: 19/0600: 18.1S 157.6E: 180 [340]: 100 [185]: 936
+72: 19/1800: 19.2S 156.1E: 230 [425]: 100 [185]: 936
REMARKS:
Somewhat irregular LG eye with B surround. DT is 5.5, MET and PAT support. CI
held at 6.0 as DT has fluctuated between 5.5 and 6.0 over the last several
hours.

System is experiencing mild E/NE shear so intensification unlikely in the short
term. The forecast slow southward movement appears to have commenced. Expect
this steering pattern to be dominant for approximately 48 hours before a
mid-level ridge develops south of the system early on Friday and movement
becomes W/SWly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0104 UTC 17/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 157.8E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [206 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 950 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.5/W0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/1200: 14.4S 157.9E: 040 [075]: 090 [165]: 950
+24: 18/0000: 15.1S 158.1E: 070 [130]: 090 [165]: 950
+36: 18/1200: 16.4S 158.0E: 105 [190]: 090 [165]: 951
+48: 19/0000: 17.8S 157.3E: 135 [250]: 090 [165]: 952
+60: 19/1200: 19.3S 155.6E: 185 [340]: 090 [165]: 949
+72: 20/0000: 20.5S 153.3E: 230 [425]: 090 [165]: 949
REMARKS:
Ului has weakened in the last 6 hours with cloud tops warming and the eye
becoming a little more ragged. Dvorak analysis based on Eye pattern DT=4.5 based
on LG surround elongated eye LG/OW supported by PAT. CI higher at 5.5. Although
the upper level pattern remains favourable with strong outflow associated with
an upper level trough to the south, ocean upwelling as a result of the slow
movement in the past 48 hours may be weakening convection.

While some weakening may continue today, forecast intensity is held at 90 knot
[category 4] through the forecast period with favourable upper level pattern
continuing.

Steering remains light with forecast slow southerly movement expected in the
next 24/36 hours.
Expect this steering pattern to be dominant for approximately 48 hours before a
mid-level ridge develops south of the system early on Friday and movement
becomes W/SWly towards the coast. A severe impact on the Queensland coast is a
strong possibility on Saturday and/or Sunday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 157.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.4S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.2S 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.1S 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.5S 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.7S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.7S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.3S 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 157.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TC ULUI HAS ATTAINED A WELL-DEFINED, SYMMETRIC, VISIBLE
EYE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, A 161951Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO DEPICTS WANING DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM DESPITE
ITS WELL-ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. ACCORDINGLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ABRF AND KNES HAVE DROPPED AND THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY TO
105 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD (TOWARDS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH-INDUCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE) IN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, ALLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC.
THIS WILL ENABLE TC ULUI TO TURN WEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 36. THE INTENSITY SHOULD HOVER AROUND 100 KNOTS
WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE
FIRST 72 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LESS FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE LAST DAY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P
(TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[somethingfunny]

Interestingly, the storm seems to be smaller in terms of overall size than it was before. Highly unscientific, but at its' peak Ului's CDO covered one full box of Lat/Lon and the main parts of the storm (not including outflow and feeder bands) covered nine boxes. Now the CDO is still one full box but the entire storm only covers about four boxes. That is assuming that the scale is the same between these two maps, and that an optical illusion isn't tricking me.


March 13


March 17

[Tom8]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 14.4S 158.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 158.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.3S 158.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.3S 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.3S 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.3S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.7S 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.2S 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.4S 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 158.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER BEING QUASISTATIONARY FOR NEARLY 36
HOURS ULUI HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENED STATE OF THIS RIDGE IS POSITIONED TO
MOVE DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WITH THE TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM THE RIDGE WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND TRACK THE CYCLONE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA, OF WHICH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED
TO 100 KNOTS IN RESPONSE WEAKENED CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHICH IS MOST
LIKELY THE CONSEQUENCE OF UPWELLING OF COOLER SUB-SURFACE WATER.
RECENTLY IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET SIGNIFICANT
DECAY OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZE THE INTENSITY NEAR 100
KNOTS FOR THE NEXT DAY. THE 0600Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
PGTW INDICATES A 77 TO 102 KNOT SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL COME ASHORE
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR QUEENSLAND
NEAR TAU 120. THE CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE
TO RESTRICTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ELEVATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z AND 181500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1243 UTC 17/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 158.0E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [162 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 950 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0000: 15.3S 158.2E: 045 [085]: 090 [165]: 950
+24: 18/1200: 16.4S 158.0E: 070 [130]: 090 [165]: 950
+36: 19/0000: 18.0S 157.1E: 105 [190]: 090 [165]: 950
+48: 19/1200: 19.3S 155.3E: 135 [250]: 090 [165]: 950
+60: 20/0000: 20.3S 152.9E: 185 [340]: 090 [165]: 950
+72: 20/1200: 20.9S 150.4E: 230 [425]: 090 [165]: 948
REMARKS:
Recent imagery shows Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului as a symmetric system,
although cloud tops have continued to warm in the past 12 hours, indicating some
weakening. Dvorak analysis based on an Eye pattern DT=5.0 based on MG surround
with OW eye and an adjustment for a banding feature to the north of the system.
MET and PT both suggest 5.0. CI maintained at 5.5. The upper level pattern
generally remains favourable with strong poleward outflow associated with an
upper level trough to the south. Possibly the recent weakening trend is due to
ocean upwelling resulting from the slow movement in the past 48 hours.

Steering remains light with forecast slow southerly movement expected in the
next 24 hours. From this time Ului should accelerate and track to the southwest
then to the west southwest towards the Queensland coast on Friday as a mid-level
ridge develops to the south of the system.

While some weakening may continue in the next 24 hours as Ului tracks slowly to
the south, forecast intensity is held at 90 knots [category 4] through the
forecast period. In general the upper level pattern should remain conducive for
Ului to remain at severe classification through to landfall.

At this stage a severe impact on the Queensland coast is likely later on
Saturday and/or Sunday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Good agreement on a landfalling TC now from the agencies, though strength forecasts are still rather different from each other.

Western side doesn't look all that healthy right now IMO...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1844 UTC 17/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.7S
Longitude: 157.8E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 952 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm [315 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 18/0600: 15.6S 157.8E: 040 [075]: 085 [155]: 953
+24: 18/1800: 16.6S 157.2E: 070 [130]: 090 [165]: 949
+36: 19/0600: 17.7S 155.8E: 100 [190]: 090 [165]: 950
+48: 19/1800: 18.6S 154.0E: 135 [250]: 090 [165]: 947
+60: 20/0600: 19.3S 151.7E: 180 [340]: 090 [165]: 946
+72: 20/1800: 19.9S 149.3E: 230 [425]: 090 [165]: 946
REMARKS:
Cloud tops have remained relatively warm and the system's eye has become larger
and less well defined on IR imagery. Dvorak analysis based on an Eye pattern
DT=5.0 based on MG surround with OW eye and an adjustment for a banding feature.
MET and PT both suggest 5.0. CI reduced to 5.0. The upper level pattern
generally remains favourable with strong poleward outflow associated with an
upper level trough to the south. Possibly the recent weakening trend is due to
ocean upwelling resulting from the slow movement in the past 48 hours.

Steering remains light with forecast slow southerly movement expected in the
next 24 hours. From this time Ului should accelerate and track to the southwest
then to the west southwest towards the Queensland coast on Friday as a mid-level
ridge develops to the south of the system.

Forecast intensity is held at 85 knots [category 3] through Thursday and then
slight reintensification to category 4 is forecast overnight Thursday into
Friday. In general the upper level pattern should remain conducive for Ului to
remain at severe classification through to landfall.

At this stage a severe impact on the Queensland coast is likely later on
Saturday and/or Sunday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest. Looking disorganized

[HURAKAN]

Latest