ARABIAN SEA - DEEP DEPRESSION (03A)

[Aquawind]

That looks pretty serious alright.

[ugaap]

Any possibility of this system to make initial landfall over Oman and then re-curve North Eastwards?

[wyq614]

Any possibility of this system to make initial landfall over Oman and then re-curve North Eastwards?

JTWC favors a northeastward track but not yet rules out the posibility that the cyclone move toward Oman

[Category 5]

The projected path is very unnerving, dangerously close to Karachi. I hope people in that area know NOT to listen to IMD as they call this 100kt cyclone a tropical storm.

[shah8]

This ain't a hundred knots. Think higher. Gotta be 940s or less.

[salmon123]

Ya i live in Karachi projected path is a mystery .... and Imd still says re-curve to Gujarat, But from here much likely to hit Oman may b Karachi ?

[img][/img]

[vjyanand]

The storm has intensified in to a severe cyclonic storm with a core of hurricane winds. Sustained wind speed is up to 160 to 180 kmph. Gusts are reaching 200kmph. The system is 600 kms south of High pressure ridge to the north. So by this evening or tomorrow morning it would start moving in a north westerly direction. Its gonna cross some where between mandvi(gujarat) and GothSumar(PAK). The eye is visible now.
Friends you can also see the storm info on google earth. It has a delay of 6 hours.

[vjyanand]

Correction the storm from this evening or tomorrow morning would be moving in a north easterly direction.
The system has ruined South West Monsoon's progress. The monsoon would be delayed by 1 week from progressing in to karnataka. Real bad luck!

[ugaap]

The storm has intensified in to a severe cyclonic storm with a core of hurricane winds. Sustained wind speed is up to 160 to 180 kmph. Gusts are reaching 200kmph. The system is 600 kms south of High pressure ridge to the north. So by this evening or tomorrow morning it would start moving in a north westerly direction. Its gonna cross some where between mandvi(gujarat) and GothSumar(PAK). The eye is visible now.
Friends you can also see the storm info on google earth. It has a delay of 6 hours.

How could it possibly go towards Pakistan or Gujarat if it starts moving north westerly direction? Or you meant North Easterly?

[Grifforzer]

RSMC intensifies it to a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

T4.0 with estimated winds of 65-70 knots..

(oh no! the image may be too large for the page. Hopefully it isn't)

[ugaap]

Any possibility of this system to make initial landfall over Oman and then re-curve North Eastwards?

JTWC favors a northeastward track but not yet rules out the posibility that the cyclone move toward Oman

Thanks for the reply !

[Squarethecircle]

I don't like the look of that path at all. As for Karachi - I've never been, but when my father was stationed (foreign service) in Islamabad, he made a few trips down there, and from the way he described the place a storm like this could do some very serious damage. Luckily, of course, that's still a few days out, so obviously nothing is close to certain, but it disturbs me a little to see the center of that cone passing right by Karachi.

[WhatsTheDeal]

Any possibility of this system to make initial landfall over Oman and then re-curve North Eastwards?

If you live in Oman, please don't trust your safety to the Indian metereologists. They haven't been admitting the severity of this storm or admitting that it poses a serious threat to Oman. The storm is pretty much right on top of Oman and still moving west. Tell people in vulnerable areas to take safety measures or evacuate to safer areas.

http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellite/Infrared.aspx?location=SAXX0014&animate=true

[salmon123]

Hurakan what do you think likely path ?

[vjyanand]

This storm is behaving a bit like cyclone laila which crossed AP coast in may. It moved westward more than expected. As far as PET is concerned Most predictions expect the system to start curving from tonight. The system is still moving in north westerly direction.
If the eye moves by another 300 kms to the west, OMAN is going to feel the effect. Its very close.

[vjyanand]

Sub: Severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.



The severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea moved west-northwestward and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, 02nd June 2010 over westcentral Arabian sea near latitude 17.50N and long. 61.00E, about 1200 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1060 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1100 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 600 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman).



The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastwards towards Pakistan & adjoining Gujarat coast, skirting Oman coast.



Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:



Date/Time(IST)


Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)


Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

02-06-2010/0830


17.5/61.0


110-120 gusting to 130

02-06-2010/1130


18.0/60.5


120-130 gusting to 140

02-06-2010/1730


18.5/60.0


130-140 gusting to 150

02-06-2010/2330


19.0/59.5


140-150 gusting to 165

03-06-2010/0530


19.5/59.5


150-160 gusting to 175

03-06-2010/1730


20.5/59.5


170-190 gusting to 205

04-06-2010/0530


22.5/60.5


210-220 gusting to 235

04-06-.2010/1730


23.5/63.5


210-220 gusting to 235

05-06-.2010/0530


24.5/66.5


200-210 gusting to 225



Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from 4th June 2010 and increase thereafter. Squally winds with speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting 85 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 4th June 2010 and increase gradually.



Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal over north Arabian sea and along and off Gujarat coast from 3rd June 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea.



Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of 02nd June 2010.

[Grifforzer]

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly north northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastward towards Pakistan and adjoining Gujarat coast under the influence of the approaching trough in mid-latitude westerlies to 500 HPA level.

Gale wind with speed of 35-40 knots gusting to 45 knots would commence along and off Oman coast by this evening. It is likely to increase gradually becoming 90-105 knots by Thurday and 115-120 knots by Friday morning. Sea surface conditions will be very high to phenomenal along and off Oman coast.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
9 HRS: 18.5N 60.0E - 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 19.5N 59.5E - 80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 22.5N 60.5E - 115 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 24.5N 66.5E - 110 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

---

The conversion from km/h to knots may be a little off.

[Chacor]

Any possibility of this system to make initial landfall over Oman and then re-curve North Eastwards?

If you live in Oman, please don't trust your safety to the Indian metereologists. They haven't been admitting the severity of this storm or admitting that it poses a serious threat to Oman. The storm is pretty much right on top of Oman and still moving west. Tell people in vulnerable areas to take safety measures or evacuate to safer areas.

http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellite/Infrared.aspx?location=SAXX0014&animate=true

That is ridiculous. Your first post and such an antagonistic bashing? This storm is not "right on top of Oman", at least not yet.

[salmon123]

another track

[jconsor]

Phet continues to rapidly intensify. Satellite estimates now up to T6.0, which is equivalent to 115 kt 1-minute sustained winds. Satellite estimates also show it's turning more NW now.

TPIO10 PGTW 020609

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET)

B. 02/0530Z

C. 17.7N

D. 60.5E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE WITH WHITE
SURROUNDING CNVCTN YIELDS 6.0 DT. PT YIELDS 5.0. MET YIELDS
4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0139Z 17.5N 60.8E TRMM
02/0224Z 17.6N 60.7E AMSU