EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM DARBY - DISCUSSION
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 270859
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DARBY HAS BEEN BURSTING
INTERMITTENTLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 30 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CYCLONE. THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A FEW INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...AN AMSU ESTIMATE
OF 38 KT...A SATELLITE CONSENSUS MEASUREMENT OF 53 KT...AND
CONSTRAINED BY RULES...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 66 KT AND 55
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. THE SHIPS
MODEL...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY
SHEAR AFFECTING DARBY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS REDUCING
DARBY TO A REMNANT LOW SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN 3 DAYS OR LESS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3...WITHIN THE LIGHT EASTERLY LOW
TO MID-LEVEL FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF
DARBY FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. SINCE DARBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE DECAYING CYCLONE
SHOULD MAKE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE 24 HR PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
STORM ALEX CURRENTLY MOVING OVER YUCATAN. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT A LITTLE SLOWER ON
THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HEDGES TOWARD THE TVCN MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 13.5N 103.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 13.5N 103.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 13.9N 103.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 14.2N 102.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 14.5N 101.9W 25 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
WTPZ45 KNHC 270859
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DARBY HAS BEEN BURSTING
INTERMITTENTLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 30 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CYCLONE. THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A FEW INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...AN AMSU ESTIMATE
OF 38 KT...A SATELLITE CONSENSUS MEASUREMENT OF 53 KT...AND
CONSTRAINED BY RULES...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 66 KT AND 55
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. THE SHIPS
MODEL...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY
SHEAR AFFECTING DARBY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS REDUCING
DARBY TO A REMNANT LOW SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN 3 DAYS OR LESS.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3...WITHIN THE LIGHT EASTERLY LOW
TO MID-LEVEL FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF
DARBY FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. SINCE DARBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE DECAYING CYCLONE
SHOULD MAKE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE 24 HR PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
STORM ALEX CURRENTLY MOVING OVER YUCATAN. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT A LITTLE SLOWER ON
THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HEDGES TOWARD THE TVCN MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/0900Z 13.5N 103.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 13.5N 103.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 13.9N 103.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 14.2N 102.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 14.5N 101.9W 25 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
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americanre1
Its certainly an interesting possiblity, the inflow into Alex may well take in some of Darby's remains if they are close enough, but I'm not sure to be honest?
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM DARBY - DISCUSSION
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 271435
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISTORT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF
DARBY...WITH ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO DROP...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AS A STRONG BURST OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE EAST OF DARBY IMPACTS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE DARBY IS SUCH A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE
...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND SUCH HIGH SHEAR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD AND IS NEAR...BUT A
LITTLE LOWER THAN...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0854 UTC WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL FOR
FINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. NOW THAT DARBY IS WEAKENING...IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT IS SWEPT UP BY A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF
MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT WHATEVER REMAINS
OF DARBY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 13.7N 103.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 13.8N 102.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 14.2N 102.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 14.6N 100.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 99.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTPZ45 KNHC 271435
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISTORT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF
DARBY...WITH ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO DROP...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AS A STRONG BURST OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE EAST OF DARBY IMPACTS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE DARBY IS SUCH A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE
...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND SUCH HIGH SHEAR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD AND IS NEAR...BUT A
LITTLE LOWER THAN...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0854 UTC WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL FOR
FINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. NOW THAT DARBY IS WEAKENING...IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT IS SWEPT UP BY A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF
MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT WHATEVER REMAINS
OF DARBY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES
THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 13.7N 103.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 13.8N 102.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 14.2N 102.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 14.6N 100.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 99.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM DARBY - DISCUSSION
WTPZ45 KNHC 272032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DARBY IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION...CONSISTENT WITH THE 15 KT OR SO OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ANALYZED OVER DARBY BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC...AND DATA
FROM A 1556 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR
INCREASING TO 25 OR 30 KT OVER THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING. DARBY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...WITH
DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM. WHATEVER REMAINS OF DARBY IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH
COAST OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW EASTWARD...090 DEGREES...AT 4
KNOTS. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A LARGE AREA
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.7N 102.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 13.8N 101.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.2N 100.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.6N 99.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 29/1800Z 14.9N 98.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DARBY IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION...CONSISTENT WITH THE 15 KT OR SO OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ANALYZED OVER DARBY BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC...AND DATA
FROM A 1556 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR
INCREASING TO 25 OR 30 KT OVER THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING. DARBY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...WITH
DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM. WHATEVER REMAINS OF DARBY IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH
COAST OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW EASTWARD...090 DEGREES...AT 4
KNOTS. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A LARGE AREA
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.7N 102.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 13.8N 101.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.2N 100.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.6N 99.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 29/1800Z 14.9N 98.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM DARBY - DISCUSSION
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 280241
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
DARBY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A MASS
OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. USING AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK FINAL
T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
LEADS TO A WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GLOBAL
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR AFFECTING DARBY WILL BECOME
EVEN STRONGER...IN EXCESS OF 30 KT...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS ALSO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH DARBY
WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE WEAK
AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE SOUTH
COAST OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 070/3. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THIS STORM REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGE GYRE ASSOCIATED
WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE WEAKENING DARBY TO CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 14.2N 101.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 14.5N 100.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 14.9N 99.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/0000Z 15.3N 98.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ45 KNHC 280241
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010
DARBY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A MASS
OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. USING AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK FINAL
T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
LEADS TO A WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GLOBAL
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR AFFECTING DARBY WILL BECOME
EVEN STRONGER...IN EXCESS OF 30 KT...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS ALSO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH DARBY
WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE WEAK
AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE SOUTH
COAST OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 070/3. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THIS STORM REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGE GYRE ASSOCIATED
WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE WEAKENING DARBY TO CONTINUE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 14.2N 101.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 14.5N 100.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 14.9N 99.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/0000Z 15.3N 98.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL STORM DARBY - DISCUSSION
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 280846
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 45 NM NORTHEAST OF THE EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
SUGGEST 35 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY AT 06 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ANALYZED TO BE 35 KT BASED ON THE CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THE SYNOPTIC TIME.
THE CYCLONES INITIAL MOTION IS 060/5. THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE DARBY WEAKENS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
WHILE DARBY REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SSTS AND IS EMBEDDED IN VERY
MOIST AIR...THE EFFECTS OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ALL GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVERLYING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE LGEM...DECAY SHIPS...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DARBY IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.2N 101.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.5N 100.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 15.0N 98.9W 25 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 15.4N 97.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/0600Z 15.7N 96.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
WTPZ45 KNHC 280846
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 45 NM NORTHEAST OF THE EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
SUGGEST 35 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY AT 06 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ANALYZED TO BE 35 KT BASED ON THE CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THE SYNOPTIC TIME.
THE CYCLONES INITIAL MOTION IS 060/5. THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE DARBY WEAKENS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
WHILE DARBY REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SSTS AND IS EMBEDDED IN VERY
MOIST AIR...THE EFFECTS OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ALL GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVERLYING LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE LGEM...DECAY SHIPS...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DARBY IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.2N 101.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.5N 100.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 15.0N 98.9W 25 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 15.4N 97.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 30/0600Z 15.7N 96.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION
KNHC 281435
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
...DARBY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 99.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
DEPRESSION DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
800 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
...DARBY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 99.6W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GENERAL EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
DEPRESSION DISSIPATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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year_2005
What happened to Darby?
why did Darby weaken down to a tropical depression over water? is it wind shear?
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION
Darby is being dragged eastward by Alex,wow.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION
Last Advisory
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 282039
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
...DARBY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 98.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF DARBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE LOW
OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
THE REMNANT LOW OF DARBY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTPZ35 KNHC 282039
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010
200 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010
...DARBY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 98.3W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF DARBY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE LOW
OVERNIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
THE REMNANT LOW OF DARBY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Cookie
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION
cycloneye wrote:Darby is being dragged eastward by Alex,wow.
are thier images or links that can show that occurring?
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION
Cookie wrote:cycloneye wrote:Darby is being dragged eastward by Alex,wow.
are thier images or links that can show that occurring?
What is left of Darby is in that mess being pulled eastward and northward.
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Cookie
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Re: EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY - DISCUSSION
cycloneye wrote:Cookie wrote:cycloneye wrote:Darby is being dragged eastward by Alex,wow.
are thier images or links that can show that occurring?
What is left of Darby is in that mess being pulled eastward and northward.
thanks mate
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