ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Comanche]

A bit of a convective mess out there as you'd expect given its just an invest.

I think this needs to be watched in the W.Caribbean, I'd think this one will probably end up hitting the Yucatan and possibly then into the N.BoC or SW.GoM where developmental chances are best.

Not sure why the models aren't developing anything out there given it'll have favourable conditions aloft, can't have a good grip on the situation out there IMO...not saying we are going to get huge development, but there is at least enough to suggest a weak system.

Don't the models use some climatology in their assessment as well? (I have no idea on the answer to this).

[HURAKAN]

72 hours ...

[KWT]

No they don't the models just take the intial parameters and simulate how they think those intial conditions are going to evolve. If the starting data is off, then the run may not be quite so accurate, hence why most people don't pay too much attention to the models till a system has a Low level circulation that has formed.

[Ivanhater]

Regardless of models swinging back and forth, if I saw these factors on the table, I would be concerned for development even if not 1 model ever developed it.

[clfenwi]

I haven't taken the time to watch the presentation, but there was one at the AMS conference on "The tropical cyclogenesis 'hole' in the Caribbean"
Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be a write-up available, just the video of the presentation.

There was also an article in BAMS in February by Shieh and Colucci about the exact same thing. Granted, you need an AMS membership to read it for a while yet, but here's the abstract:

(snip)

Thank you very much for the tip. Shieh's thesis, which seems to have inspired the article, is freely available.

[Aquawind]

LOL.. Look at that mini train of waves.. June it's JUNE..

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile:

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A GENERAL
TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE FURTHER ON THIS AS ANY MODEL OUTPUT WILL
BE SUSPECT/HIGHLY VARIABLE UNTIL IF/WHEN A LOW LEVEL CENTER DEVELOPS.

[sunnyday]

Just a quick question. Some who are leaning toward development of 93l seem to indicate their opinion that it is likely to head to the Gulf. Is there anything to indicate that, assuming a storm does form, it could head to the SE Fla coast? I'm aware that tropical weather is unpredictable, but are there any factors that could make the "storm" head away from the Gulf?

[KWT]

I'd guess there is some shear coming from the east and SE, the GFS shows this region quite nicely. That shear won't probably be an issue and as Ivanhater the conditions aloft are actually relaly good.

I wouldn't fancy a wave moving into that area to be honest...

[Ivanhater]

Shear has rapidly decreased

[thetruesms]

Thank you very much for the tip. Shieh's thesis, which seems to have inspired the article, is freely available.

Great thought! I'm glad that Cornell does something with their undergrad honors theses. I'm pretty sure mine is filed away in a cabinet somewhere in Norman, never to be looked at again. Granted, the same probably goes for my master's thesis, but at least it's on library shelves.

But skimming through the thesis, it looks to be the essence of the BAMS article, and if you're interested in reading some more about the hurricane graveyard and aren't intimidated by a technical paper, I would definitely recommend it.

[HURAKAN]

4 LOOKS

[AJC3]

Great thought! I'm glad that Cornell does something with their undergrad honors theses. I'm pretty sure mine is filed away in a cabinet somewhere in Norman, never to be looked at again. Granted, the same probably goes for my master's thesis, but at least it's on library shelves.

But skimming through the thesis, it looks to be the essence of the BAMS article, and if you're interested in reading some more about the hurricane graveyard and aren't intimidated by a technical paper, I would definitely recommend it.

LOL...my CU honors thesis is about 10 feet away from me on a bookshelf.

[KWT]

Shear has rapidly decreased

Yeah it sure has though it is increasing just to the south as the upper high starts to develop around the system, going to need to be very closely watched in the W.Caribbean IMO.

[HURAKAN]

San Juan Radar

[KWT]

The fact we have an upper high that is just starting to form just to the north of the system and forecasted to move westwards in combo with this system moving slightly WNW will mean it will move into conditions very condusive for development, its just the draw of the hat as to whether it develops really.

[srainhoutx]

HGX, CRP and EWX NWS are mentioning the Caribbean Disturbance in afternoon AFD's...

HGX...

AS FOR EXTENDED GUIDANCE...THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYS-
TEM/SOMETHING FOR NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ITS TRACK AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN...BUT THEN THINGS GET SHAKY FOR
ITS EVENTUAL MOTION WITHIN THE GULF. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE PROGS
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT IS
SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE SRN STATES. LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS CRP IN
ITS SIGHTS BUT THIS SHOULD/IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE DAYS GO ON.
41

CRP...

REGARDING AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
WHERE AND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR BEYOND THE DAY 7 FORECAST...
AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE COMING DAYS.



EWX...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE PATHWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHERN GULF
WILL BE OPEN OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF AND
GEM (CANADIAN MODEL) RUNS PLACING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS COULD MOVE INTO THE GULF.

[Sanibel]

Ahh, let's put it this way. If you don't want development this isn't what you want to see:

[Comanche]

So, recon isn't in order until Wednesday at the earliest, correct?

[brunota2003]

Yes. Recon needs at least 24 hours prior notice, unless they manage to task a mission pending supplies and what not...but the NHC is probably thinking it'll take a bit to get it's act together, and Wednesday looks like that is when things will really start kicking off, if they do.