ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Rainband]

I hope those in Hispaniola, especially Haiti, are monitoring the progress of 97L very closely because IMHO even if it doesn’t develop into a TD, the potential for flooding certainly exists.

I'm here in Haiti on a consulting mission with the UN, and I will assure you that the Government of Haiti is taking the threat from 97L very seriously. This morning, the country was placed on Yellow alert to prepare:
http://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/vigilance.php

But what to actually DO with that information to prepare the 1.2M people still living in camps is the big question......

The reality of our hobby tracking storms meets the humanity. I pray that their situation doesn't get any worse..

[Gustywind]

Still bursting overall system...

[Gustywind]

THE LATEST

[KWT]

Yeah IMO it should be a code orange, esp if it takes the sort of path the NHC currently are thinking, land interaction won't be an issue for it...but its far too early to know that side of things yet.

[wxman57]

I still think only a 10% chance of it becoming a TD within 48 hrs. By 72 hrs, up to 35-40% chance. There are plenty of obs to the south of the disturbance and all indicate moderate easterly winds of 10-20 kts. Pressures are in the 1015mb-1018mb range, too. Wind shear remains high for another few days. So don't get too excited about development yet. Wait until it passes the upper low and high pressure builds to the north.

[Blown Away]

Nice convection burst very near where the MLC/LLC may be. Again, not much forward movement IMO. IMO 97L does not make it past 85W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

[canes04]

The overall motion has slowed down. IF the LLC forms north of PR and moves WNW I see the pontential for a major by weeks end.

Some long days and nights our ahead of us junkies.

[Aric Dunn]

just to mention something about the radar beam height... it is looking at the deepest convection above 10k feet.. so well above any surface circ which from all observations is not there .. that and the MLC is barely even evident... just a small weak twist on radar .. however the convection is redeveloping where that initial burst occurred earlier and that is an improvement..

[jlauderdal]

Who thinks Code Orange at 8?

no, remember its the chance in the next 48 hours, conditions arent that good until maybe thursday and more likely beyond regardless of how it looks on IR

[Aric Dunn]

also the pressure is quite high... around 1015 mb so nothing at the surface so if the convection continues to maintain we could see some pressure drops and some more organization sometime tomorrow but most likely not till at least wed... although weirder things have happened..

[Wx_Warrior]

What out there makes some think this "could be a major?"

[KWT]

The shear actually isn't all that at the moment, its certainly not high at the moment. There are clearly some issues but upper conditions are actually semi decent right now.

BA, if the GFS is right then yeah you'll be right, but the ECM does blow up the upper high and it nailed Alex so we shall see on that front. A slower motion now may not mean much given the upper high is only just starting to form.

[jlauderdal]

What out there makes some think this "could be a major?"

the same reasoning that would make some think its going to snow tomorrow in Miami

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL.... ....SO TRUE....i need that!!!

[KWT]

What out there makes some think this "could be a major?"

Not a lot if anything really, I suppose if you get a system either in the Gulf stream waters near the Bahamas or close to the loop current in the E.Gulf, then its possible if lower shear occurs, as there is a low window, but I'd think the odds would be against it going that high.

[abajan]

I'm thinking they are going to raise the percentage up to 30%.

That seems more likely than code orange at 8:00 pm to me.

[Ivanhater]

Ships do bring it to 82 knots but not quite a major

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

I'm thinking they are going to raise the percentage up to 30%.

That seems more likely than code orange at 8:00 pm to me.

abajan, 30% is where Code Orange starts.

[KWT]

Ships do bring it to 82 knots but not quite a major

IF the system manages to slide between the Islands and the high shear north of say 25N then if the system can get going early enough then thats not totally out of the question. Though it has to be said it does have to thread the needle somewhat.