ATL : INVEST 90L - DISCUSSION

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if this doesn't develop, the Atlantic is FINALLY starting to look juicier...We should still have Colin by August 7th I think...

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

That's a new one....ha....this little diddy has been all over the map.

Finally, is the #3 storm this year pronounced "Colon" or "Cawlin"? I've watched a couple of broadcasts and it has been pronounced both ways. So, which is it?

The National Hurricane Center does not have any notation for this name on their pronunciation guide.

The great majority of men who have this name, however, pronounce it as "CAH-lin", with the first syllable rhyming with Moll. The "colon" pronunciation is generally considered a mispronunciation originally. Colin Powell actually pronounced his first name as "CAH-lin" until he entered the military and had a superior officer who insisted on addressing him as "Colon."

[MandiAltman]

It's great to see what you guys are saying about this system!! I'm in Myrtle Beach, SC...watching this system very closely!! So what do you think...should I go out and stock-pile on batteries? LOL

[StormClouds63]

That's a new one....ha....this little diddy has been all over the map.

Finally, is the #3 storm this year pronounced "Colon" or "Cawlin"? I've watched a couple of broadcasts and it has been pronounced both ways. So, which is it?

The National Hurricane Center does not have any notation for this name on their pronunciation guide.

The great majority of men who have this name, however, pronounce it as "CAH-lin", with the first syllable rhyming with Moll. The "colon" pronunciation is generally considered a mispronunciation originally. Colin Powell actually pronounced his first name as "CAH-lin" until he entered the military and had a superior officer who insisted on addressing him as "Colon."

Thanks for the information. I've heard it both ways. This is the first time "Colin" has been used (replacing Charley). Of course, they could have simplified it by using "Conan" rather than Colin. Imagine a season with both "Conan" and "Igor." 90L has lots of work to do before it gets anywhere near TS status.

Here's the pronunciation page for Atlantic systems. Apparently, we're on our own regarding "Colin." Here's the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames_pronounce_atl.shtml

Somebody has a sense of humor, though. Check out the names for 2015 ... especially the "P" and "R."

[TheBurn]

[somethingfunny]

I had always interpreted it as "Collin" being pronounced "Caw-lin" while "Colin" would be pronounced "Coh-lin".

You could ask Colin Farrell or Colin Powell, or you could split the pronouncing the name with a British accent. "Caho-lin" or "Cow-lin"

[Sanibel]

It's still there. It's just in the middle of the Atlantic SAL subsidence area and lost convection.


These are the first sputterings of the Atlantic CV season. They'll either form or not form.

[KWT]

Very interesting to see the new African wave is getting juicy, I suspect the energy will eventually merge as has been called and the African wave may end up being the dominant low...I heard last night that Florence developed in a similar way in 2006 so its possible.

I think the idea of a fish is very optimistic given the La Nina tendency for stronger highs...the CMC/GFS likely will be right of quite a few of the tracks this season.

[Aric Dunn]

Very interesting to see the new African wave is getting juicy, I suspect the energy will eventually merge as has been called and the African wave may end up being the dominant low...I heard last night that Florence developed in a similar way in 2006 so its possible.

I think the idea of a fish is very optimistic given the La Nina tendency for stronger highs...the CMC/GFS likely will be right of quite a few of the tracks this season.

well the merging of waves is common its when they both have some sort of circ... also the relative sizes of each system is a huge player... for instance two massive waves are not likely to merge quickly but a large and small one will go through the process more smoothly. the original 90L will like stretch out and just get sucked in no problem... the funny thing yesterday the african wave was really sad and now its looking better... thats the tropic for you..

[Blown Away]

Very interesting to watch things come together when the upper level conditions will allow it. This mess has the making of a classic monster CV hurricane IMO. If Colin develops from this area there could be a good opportunity to move much farther west given the troughs don't start digging deeper to the south until late August into September. This is a huge area and I don't see this system pulling together quickly which will result in more westward movement initially.

[KWT]

Yeah indeed it is, the only issue is as you say if the regions start to compete too much, I think thats what the GFS has done on a few recent runs as there is two distinct regions of Vorticity that follow each other the whole way. If they do merge and one becomes dominant, right now it looks like the eastern wave will be the one to watch.

Will probably be watching this area for 12-16 days yet depending on track....right now I fancy something going nito the Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

Yeah indeed it is, the only issue is as you say if the regions start to compete too much, I think thats what the GFS has done on a few recent runs as there is two distinct regions of Vorticity that follow each other the whole way. If they do merge and one becomes dominant, right now it looks like the eastern wave will be the one to watch.

Will probably be watching this area for 12-16 days yet depending on track....right now I fancy something going nito the Caribbean.

I believe one area will dominate and the other will get absorbed/die out, I don't buy the two vorticies moving in tandem across the Atlantic, they are just to close.

[KWT]

Yeah that would be a very odd solution, the GFS just holds enough distance from each other to not become one large Vorticity region but I'd be shocked if that came off...

The more I see the more I think a Caribbean threat down the line.

[Weatherfreak000]

The race is on......can we still get Colin before August 1st?

[Aric Dunn]

[cycloneye]

The San Juan NWS people are getting very interested about this ansd IMO they have to.

NICE LOOKING WAVE EXITED THE AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME CONSENSUS THAT WE`LL SEE A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ATLC BASIN IN AROUND FIVE DAYS FROM NOW.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST THAT A WAVE ALONG 23W WILL TAKE AT LEAST SIX
DAYS TO TRAVERSE THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC.

[Aric Dunn]

the two waves are getting closer... the wave off africa is beginning to pull 90L in

[KWT]

Yeah I was thinking that Aric, the wave still hasn't moved past 31W yet and nthe African wave is starting to extend energy westwards...

This is going to be a long ole 10-14 days!

[StormClouds63]

The race is on......can we still get Colin before August 1st?

Don't think so ... an August storm. Too disorganized to become a TS before Sunday.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A FAST-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR UNTIL IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SMALLER
DISTURBANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG