ATL: INVEST 90L - MODELS

[TheBurn]

[wxman57]

New model runs are significantly left of the earlier runs, as expected. They always have a tendency to turn such systems NW way too soon. It seems that only the Canadian has it missing the Caribbean islands now. And don't expect the left shift to stop yet. Could well take a track right into the Gulf as the EC and GFS predict.

[TheBurn]

[srainhoutx]

New model runs are significantly left of the earlier runs, as expected. They always have a tendency to turn such systems NW way too soon. It seems that only the Canadian has it missing the Caribbean islands now. And don't expect the left shift to stop yet. Could well take a track right into the Gulf as the EC and GFS predict.

Although a bit further N than the EC, the GFS certainly changed its tune with the westerly track. I noticed the 06Z 850 vort brings some mid level circulation right into the Gulf. It certainly appears this will be a long and slow process to potential cyclogenesis.

[ROCK]

as I expected the Euro spit out a more plausible scenario. I am getting so good at predicting this model I dont need to stay up for it every night!!


Though I think its to far south however every day 90L takes to develop the more west as many have alluded to. Doesnt look like much attm as it needs time to sort out the 2 waves...

[somethingfunny]

I believe all the model runs to be garbage for now until we have an idea of where the cyclone will actually initialize. If 90L bites the bullet and the wave behind becomes the dominant low and starts developing, as many of us believe it will, then that would shift everything father north and east to the right of the track. But since intensity affects track so much (more intense = farther north more quickly) I feel that the models will all have a right bias as it is until a defined LLC develops.

We can discuss the long-range overall pattern at great length here but the actual track and intensity forecasts are going to be garbage until something develops. If it reforms to the east, then the CMC will be the closest to verifying. If it stays south of 10N and pulls the next wave in rather than being pulled out by the wave, then the ECM will be closer to the truth. Way too early to lose sleep over it.

[KWT]

The 06z GFS isn't all that impressive with this system, still I don't see many reasons for it not to develop given it will take quite a deep southerly track for a while yet...and I think the GFS is a little to the north of what will occur, the ECM track probably won't be far wrong IMO with a just north of west track for a while yet...

How long it takes to develop may well seal its fate down the line, conditions look decent way down the line.

[jasons2k]

I don't know what's going to happen in the short term, much less the long term with this one...

[KWT]

Slightly stronger this run but weakens still in the E.Caribbean and then eventually hits Hispaniola as a wave feature.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps is dropping development

[KWT]

12z ECM will be interesting, lets see if it forms anything or not this time round, its not been keen on its 12z runs for sure.

The 12z CMC looks too keen on the northerly track IMO, but note it doesn't really get the system going till its further west and about 96hrs, which makes plenty of sense to me...

[cycloneye]

GFDL and HWRF did not run at 12z as those models are waiting to see how all of the interactions evolve but that is only especulation on my part.

[Ivanhater]

18z

909

WHXX01 KWBC 301827

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1827 UTC FRI JUL 30 2010




DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100730 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100730 1800 100731 0600 100731 1800 100801 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.1N 32.0W 9.4N 33.2W 9.9N 34.6W 10.1N 36.1W

BAMD 9.1N 32.0W 9.6N 33.4W 10.3N 35.1W 10.8N 37.2W

BAMM 9.1N 32.0W 9.7N 33.2W 10.3N 34.9W 10.8N 36.9W

LBAR 9.1N 32.0W 9.7N 33.6W 10.9N 35.9W 11.9N 38.5W

SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS

DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 26KTS 33KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100801 1800 100802 1800 100803 1800 100804 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.2N 38.0W 10.8N 43.6W 12.6N 50.9W 15.5N 58.2W

BAMD 11.0N 39.6W 11.1N 45.6W 12.0N 52.1W 13.4N 57.9W

BAMM 11.0N 39.3W 11.0N 45.3W 12.0N 51.9W 14.3N 58.0W

LBAR 12.8N 41.7W 14.0N 48.4W 15.1N 54.8W .0N .0W

SHIP 42KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS

DSHP 42KTS 58KTS 66KTS 72KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.1N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 5KT

LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 31.2W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 6KT

LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 30.0W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

[KWT]

Not quite so agressive from the SHIPS this time round but still reaching Hurricane strength down the line.

Note the SHIPS shows slow strengthening for the first 36hrs which seems good.

[Ivanhater]

Right on cue, 12z Euro a lot weaker than the 00z run

[KWT]

Looks like the ECM once again develops some sort of upper feature which shears the system, you can see it on the western side of the Azores high, it developed a similar thing yesterday as well...

Looks further south on this run compared to yesterdays run though.

[Ivanhater]

216 hours, weak reflection south of Jamaica..waiting on higher resolution

[KWT]

The ECM doesn't really do that much with it but given the fact the ECM can't decide whether to go strong or not I'd imagine confidence in the King Euro can't be quite as high as it normally would be.

That being said none of the models really do that much with this wave so they must be seeing some poor conditions down the line for it...

[Ivanhater]

As of now, the only Global model that really develops this is the Canadian...