WPAC: Ex-Typhoon KOMPASU (1007/08W)

[StormingB81]

As of 740 am Winds were at 65 MPH..so your 65 knots (74 mph) is most likely correct) Whic hit wasnt supposed to be like this until mid afternoon. that means that it could be alot worse here in Okinawa. Typhoon Hunter get ready!

[Typhoon Hunter]

As of 740 am Winds were at 65 MPH..so your 65 knots (74 mph) is most likely correct) Whic hit wasnt supposed to be like this until mid afternoon. that means that it could be alot worse here in Okinawa. Typhoon Hunter get ready!

Morning Okinawa gang!

Kompasu ramping up nicely overnight, with eye sort of there on visible sat imagery. Dvorak also "seeing" the eye!

TPPN12 PGTW 300015

A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU)

B. 29/2332Z

C. 23.0N

D. 132.2E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
CNVCTN WRAPS 1.30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING 4.0 DT. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[StormingB81]

Someone told me they wouldn't be suprised if this hits as a Cat 2 Typhon...Can it build up that quick before landgall you think? I thought that was a little over estimate.

[StormingB81]

So here is My question looking at JMA Wich took Okinawa out of the 55kt probabilty. If it is already up to as of 6 am ( 5 hours ago) 65 mph and still intensifying as we can see why are we not under any 55kt warnings yet? This may come back to hurt them.

[StormingB81]

New Advisory came out...up to 60 knots (about 69 mph) Okinawa still predicted to get 70 Knots (80 mph) gisting to 85 knots ( about 100mph) just before it hits Okinawa. Sounds right maybe just a little bit higher here.

[Infdidoll]

It would probably only hurt them if there was a large loss of life from this storm. Okinawa is actually pretty economically stable and most of the residents here live in concrete housing or have stable shelter. They've seen much worse and are pretty prepared here because they have the financial means to do so. I don't worry so much when typhoons hit Okinawa as I do when typhoons hit regions with larger poor populations where people are living in shanties. Most of the deaths here are from idiots out doing idiot things. When Melor and Morakot went by last year...there were teenagers out surfing the storm surge. I also see water skiers skiing over water only 8 ft deep with coral reefs under it in our backyard.

My son's school teacher actually seemed bummed that this was all we were getting. She said she doesn't get excited until the winds are over 180 mph.

[StormingB81]

Yes I am interested in what the 5pm advisor yshows I think that will be the tall tale sign of what we will get. It looked like it ramped up and still is ramping up pretty good. I am not to worried these are great structures and we will be just fine. I am sure you will ge tsome good video like you did with tha twater spout. My wife took my camera back to the states so no photo taking for me..lol

[Infdidoll]

I took some video when Melor went by...but there really wasn't anything to see. It was just loud. lol

I will probably do some documentation as conditions change like I did with Melor. Just got a new SLR camera for my birthday so I can get some good photos of damage, etc. too!

[StormingB81]

I will be on here telling everyone the condition changes until the power goes out cause if we get 75kt to 90 kt gusts *yes I put that a little bit higher since we are a little bit after the 31/00z location) you pretty much garentee the power going out.

[supercane]

WTPQ21 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 22.8N 132.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 80NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310000UTC 25.2N 129.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 010000UTC 28.6N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 020000UTC 32.6N 122.5E 210NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 030000UTC 36.7N 123.8E 350NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
120HF 040000UTC 40.9N 127.0E 450NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT =



WTPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.5N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 28.0N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 30.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 34.6N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 39.3N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 41.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 131.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z,
301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
07W (LIONROCK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[supercane]

[Typhoon Hunter]

I will be on here telling everyone the condition changes until the power goes out cause if we get 75kt to 90 kt gusts *yes I put that a little bit higher since we are a little bit after the 31/00z location) you pretty much garentee the power going out.

I rode eyewall of cat 3 typhoon Sinlaku in Taiwan and the power stayed on the whole time so don't be surprised if it doesn't get knocked out.

It would probably only hurt them if there was a large loss of life from this storm. Okinawa is actually pretty economically stable and most of the residents here live in concrete housing or have stable shelter. They've seen much worse and are pretty prepared here because they have the financial means to do so. I don't worry so much when typhoons hit Okinawa as I do when typhoons hit regions with larger poor populations where people are living in shanties. Most of the deaths here are from idiots out doing idiot things. When Melor and Morakot went by last year...there were teenagers out surfing the storm surge. I also see water skiers skiing over water only 8 ft deep with coral reefs under it in our backyard.

My son's school teacher actually seemed bummed that this was all we were getting. She said she doesn't get excited until the winds are over 180 mph.

Very smart words there! Maybe the teacher meant 180km/h, 180mph would be associated with the strongest category 5 and even Okinawa hasn't been hit by one of them for a while!

[StormingB81]

Just read that the military weather is Predicting it start getting really bad about 7-8 tomorrow with the eye crossing at 11 am anf then having atleast 63mph winds though 2pm..that is a LONG time..the ysaid we should see atleast 6 hours of really bad weather. So they are now on point with 80-100 mph winds

[StormingB81]

If the power doesnt go out that will be awesome! More time to look at updates on the computer. lol and play games haha. Like I said Im waiting for the 5pm and 11pm advisories tonight and will not be suprised if it says 80-90 knots sustained for here it looks alot better then it did last night

[supercane]

WDPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KOMPASU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB). A 292020Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS
A SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT WHERE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT CELL NEAR OKINAWA
IS HINDERING OUTFLOW. OVERALL, CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE TCB AND SSMI IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED SOUTH
OF JAPAN. THE 29/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS
STR HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 31N. THE FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STR HAS RE-ORIENTED AND INDICATES
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH SUPPORTS THE FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 36. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL LOW
NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN IS PREVENTING THE STR FROM BUILDING
FURTHER WESTWARD I.E., NOT FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL TRACKERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
TRACK OVER OR JUST NORTH OF OKINAWA. AFTER TAU 36, THE
TRACKERS DIVERGE, INDICATING INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK INTO THE YELLOW SEA.
C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE INTO THE YELLOW SEA AND
SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO COOLER SST AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE JET AND ANOTHER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AFTER TAU 72. TS 08W WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AND SHOULD COMPLETE
ETT BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
MIDLATITUDE JET OVER NORTHERN NORTH KOREA, THE NORTHERN
TRACKERS (UKMO AND NOGAPS) APPEAR UNLIKELY, THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[supercane]

WTPQ22 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 23.0N 132.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310300UTC 25.8N 129.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 010000UTC 28.6N 125.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 020000UTC 32.6N 122.5E 210NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


FXPQ21 RJTD 300000
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TS 1007 KOMPASU (1007)
PSTN 300000UTC 22.8N 132.4E
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 40KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 22.8N 132.0E -002HPA -001KT
T=012 23.6N 131.5E -001HPA +001KT
T=018 24.4N 130.5E -003HPA +002KT
T=024 25.4N 129.4E -002HPA +003KT
T=030 26.3N 128.2E -004HPA +003KT
T=036 27.1N 126.9E -003HPA +004KT
T=042 28.1N 125.4E -003HPA +003KT
T=048 29.1N 124.1E -002HPA +002KT
T=054 29.8N 123.3E -004HPA +002KT
T=060 30.5N 122.6E -002HPA +003KT
T=066 31.6N 122.0E -003HPA +002KT
T=072 32.7N 121.8E -001HPA +002KT
T=078 34.0N 121.9E -002HPA +002KT
T=084 35.3N 122.2E 000HPA 000KT
T=090 36.6N 122.6E 000HPA -003KT
T=096 38.1N 123.9E +002HPA -006KT
T=102 39.4N 125.7E +002HPA -007KT
T=108 40.7N 127.8E +004HPA -009KT
T=114 42.2N 130.0E +003HPA -008KT
T=120 42.9N 133.1E +002HPA -007KT
T=126 43.4N 135.8E +002HPA -009KT
T=132 43.9N 139.0E +001HPA -011KT=

[Typhoon Hunter]

Well I won't be off to Okinawa for this one. I'm booked to arrive in Medan, Sumatra - Indonesia tomorrow to check out eruptions at Mt. Sinabung.

You guys in OKinawa stay safe. I don't predict this will cause too many problems to the locals. East China and the Koreas need to keep a close eye on this. I'll be online for the rest of the afternoon then only sporadic contact after that!

[supercane]

Very versatile, Typhoon Hunter! Hope you get great footage in Indonesia.

[StormingB81]

TCCOR 1 to be declared anytime here in Okinawa. They say winds will be 60mph or greater between 7am-8pm tomorrow. With the strongest winds coming between noon and 3 pm tomorow

[supercane]

WTPQ22 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1007 KOMPASU (1007) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 23.3N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 310600UTC 26.9N 128.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 010600UTC 30.2N 123.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 020600UTC 34.3N 122.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =