ATL: FIONA - Models

[Sambucol]

Is there a chance 97L, soon to be Fiona, could make it into the GOM?

[lester]

Is there a chance 97L, soon to be Fiona, could make it into the GOM?

Sorry, the Gulf is shut down for tropical cyclones until further notice

[HurrikaneBryce]

I was looking at some of the models on the other pages and saw it takes 97L/Fiona up to the East Coast. Is it just me, or does the track seem similar to Hurricane Isabel?

[perk]

Is there a chance 97L, soon to be Fiona, could make it into the GOM?

I think it's way too early to determine whether future Fiona can get that far west. Having said that the last few runs of the euro looks pretty interesting for Florida and the east coast.

[Sambucol]

Is there a chance 97L, soon to be Fiona, could make it into the GOM?

Sorry, the Gulf is shut down for tropical cyclones until further notice

I hope you're right. We've still got tarps on rooftops here due to Ike. I don't want to go through that again.

[Dean4Storms]

Fiona could be a problem down the road.

[lester]

I was looking at some of the models on the other pages and saw it takes 97L/Fiona up to the East Coast. Is it just me, or does the track seem similar to Hurricane Isabel?

eerily similar but instead of a (thank God) weakening cat2 an epic cat5

[Riptide]

Fiona could be a problem down the road.

Yes, I expect Fiona to make landfall in Florida if it keeps its distance from Earl. I don't think the Euro is handling Earl's track correctly.

[Ikester]

If this is a threat to the GOM, every Texan on this board will jump up and down in excitement (good or bad) and the word 'Texas' will be used more than hurricane or category. LOL. When people refer to the GOM, I don't know why they just don't say Texas. I am guilty as hell so I'm not pointing fingers.

[SeminoleWind]

Fiona could be a problem down the road.

Yes, I expect Fiona to make landfall in Florida if it keeps its distance from Earl. I don't think the Euro is handling Earl's track correctly.

Hope your wrong, but fear you may be right.

[Sambucol]

If this is a threat to the GOM, every Texan on this board will jump up and down in excitement (good or bad) and the word 'Texas' will be used more than hurricane or category. LOL. When people refer to the GOM, I don't know why they just don't say Texas. I am guilty as hell so I'm not pointing fingers.

Not this Texan!

[perk]

If this is a threat to the GOM, every Texan on this board will jump up and down in excitement (good or bad) and the word 'Texas' will be used more than hurricane or category. LOL. When people refer to the GOM, I don't know why they just don't say Texas. I am guilty as hell so I'm not pointing fingers.

Not this Texan!

This one either, i lost my electric for 6 hours Tuesday, because an intense thunderstorm with 50 to 60mph straight line winds. I have no desire to lose it for a week or more.

[Vortex]

00Z Canadian Long Range. IMO, this would be a near worst case scenario where hits fron Fiona would encompass the leewards, PR, Bahamas, and possibly FL and/or the East coast...


Loop:


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... MLoop.html

[KWT]

GFDL pulls the same trick with this one as the GFS does and suggests it effectivly becomes a secondary depression to Earl...which looks a pretty unlikely solution IMO...

HWRF meanwhile seems much more realistic getting to about 20-22N/60W and plenty of time for the upper ridge to build in...

[jaxfladude]

00Z Canadian Long Range. IMO, this would be a near worst case scenario where hits fron Fiona would encompass the leewards, PR, Bahamas, and possibly FL and/or the East coast...


Loop:


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... MLoop.html

Nasty set-up there!
If it is of any good size(wind field wise) on that track even my area may have to deal with some nasty stuff I.e. Frances-Jeanne.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 280058
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0058 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100828 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100828  0000   100828  1200   100829  0000   100829  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  25.4W   13.6N  28.2W   14.7N  31.7W   15.9N  36.0W
BAMD    12.3N  25.4W   12.9N  28.5W   13.5N  31.7W   14.2N  35.1W
BAMM    12.3N  25.4W   13.3N  28.4W   14.2N  31.7W   15.1N  35.6W
LBAR    12.3N  25.4W   12.8N  28.2W   13.3N  31.4W   13.8N  35.1W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100830  0000   100831  0000   100901  0000   100902  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  40.8W   18.4N  50.3W   22.2N  59.3W   30.3N  66.3W
BAMD    15.0N  38.7W   17.4N  46.3W   20.4N  53.5W   23.2N  59.7W
BAMM    15.9N  39.9W   17.7N  48.8W   20.4N  57.0W   26.3N  63.3W
LBAR    14.4N  38.7W   15.9N  46.4W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        49KTS          61KTS          68KTS          71KTS
DSHP        49KTS          61KTS          68KTS          71KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  25.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  11KT
LATM12 =  11.9N LONM12 =  23.3W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  11.5N LONM24 =  21.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps...very similar to the 00z Canadian and makes a direct hit on the leewards and very close to PR.


Loop:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Blown Away]

Alomst every model recurves 97L enough to miss the islands? I don't get where the confidence of a close or direct EC hit is coming from? Is the confidence only from the EURO?

[Ivanhater]

Alomst every model recurves 97L enough to miss the islands? I don't get where the confidence of a close or direct EC hit is coming from? Is the confidence only from the EURO?

These same models had 97L recurving almost right off Africa, similar to Earl. They are in the middle of adjusting southward.

[gatorcane]

Besides the two runs today, the Euro has not brought this system even close to the US. The 12z run shifted right some hinting at a weakness but still too close to the carolinas.