ATL: MATTHEW - Ex-Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Is recon scheduled to fly within the next few days? We gotta have more recon baby!!!

Tomorrow

[cycloneye]

Is recon scheduled to fly within the next few days? We gotta have more recon baby!!!



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SFT

Tommorow afternoon.

95L Recon Thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109486&p=2071600#p2071600

SUSPECT AREA -- CARRIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 22/1700Z
D. 12.5N 68.5W
E. 23/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

[FLpanhandle91]

I am starting to a see some banding on the west side and what looks to be the beginning of cold cloud tops forming around the LLC.

[CDO62]

Looks to have a spin to me too with a broad center around 13N 65.8W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir4.html

[btangy]

Does anyone know if the PREDICT research team collects data used for the model output?

You can find an archive of all the model, operational, and some of the research data from the missions at http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/predict/. Some of it is restricted. There's a ton of information on that site... probably more than you care for.

I'm tooting my own horn, but we have a team that's writing very in depth discussion about the synoptic situation and forecasts under Daily Reports --> Weather Discussion. There are also ensemble discussions on the same page that are really good reading, though they can be quite technical.

In terms of the data I've seen today, we saw some very strong winds on the N side of the system (easterlies 35-40 knots). S of the wave axis, there is a broad region of southerlies coming off the S American continent. As others have gathered, we didn't find any westerly winds, though we had issues with Venezuela not allowing us into their airspace today, so we were unable to sample much of the S side of the AL95. We should have better coverage tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

In terms of the data I've seen today, we saw some very strong winds on the N side of the system (easterlies 35-40 knots). S of the wave axis, there is a broad region of southerlies coming off the S American continent. As others have gathered, we didn't find any westerly winds, though we had issues with Venezuela not allowing us into their airspace today, so we were unable to sample much of the S side of the AL95. We should have better coverage tomorrow.

btangy,I posted earlier this afternoon about a gust of 38 mph reported in Curacao.

[LaBreeze]

If GOM bound, then gut feeling says it's Florida's storm. Just a feeling, nothing official.

[srainhoutx]

Does anyone know if the PREDICT research team collects data used for the model output?

You can find an archive of all the model, operational, and some of the research data from the missions at http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/predict/. Some of it is restricted. There's a ton of information on that site... probably more than you care for.

I'm tooting my own horn, but we have a team that's writing very in depth discussion about the synoptic situation and forecasts under Daily Reports --> Weather Discussion. There are also ensemble discussions on the same page that are really good reading, though they can be quite technical.

In terms of the data I've seen today, we saw some very strong winds on the N side of the system (easterlies 35-40 knots). S of the wave axis, there is a broad region of southerlies coming off the S American continent. As others have gathered, we didn't find any westerly winds, though we had issues with Venezuela not allowing us into their airspace today, so we were unable to sample much of the S side of the AL95. We should have better coverage tomorrow.

We thank you for your service. Please keep us posted.

[Vortex]

Just a reminder of the Heat potential "Matthew" is going to traverse..It will probablly pass over some of the warmest waters with the highest heat potential on earth over the next week..






http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... /cahhp.gif

[WeatherEmperor]

Just a reminder of the Heat potential "Matthew" is going to traverse..It will probablly pass over some of the warmest waters with the highest heat potential on earth over the next week..






http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... /cahhp.gif

That is very interesting. That really is a lot of heat potential. What will the upper air environment be like ahead of the system? I don't really know how to read the global model shear charts. Can somebody shed some light on how favorable the atmosphere will be ahead of the system?

[HURAKAN]

anticyclone developing over 95L

[MWatkins]

Does anyone know if the PREDICT research team collects data used for the model output?

You can find an archive of all the model, operational, and some of the research data from the missions at http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/predict/. Some of it is restricted. There's a ton of information on that site... probably more than you care for.

I'm tooting my own horn, but we have a team that's writing very in depth discussion about the synoptic situation and forecasts under Daily Reports --> Weather Discussion. There are also ensemble discussions on the same page that are really good reading, though they can be quite technical.

In terms of the data I've seen today, we saw some very strong winds on the N side of the system (easterlies 35-40 knots). S of the wave axis, there is a broad region of southerlies coming off the S American continent. As others have gathered, we didn't find any westerly winds, though we had issues with Venezuela not allowing us into their airspace today, so we were unable to sample much of the S side of the AL95. We should have better coverage tomorrow.

Keep up the good work up there...I still look forward to your posts even though you've moved on to bigger/better things. Your insight is always appreciated...

Interesting few days ahead, eh?

Kind of looks like a typhoon in the west pac trying to organize...

MW

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Looking good, convection should blossom in the morning

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Battlebrick]

Its looking really good lately... won't be surprised to see a TS by tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Lets see what recon finds tommorow afternoon if they go. I say if they go because many times in the past, there is a mission planned, but later is canceled because the system looks poor in organization.

[cycloneye]

anticyclone developing over 95L

Very interesting.Let's see how it looks in the morning after D-MAX.

[dwsqos2]

Not to dump cold water on anything, but the upper-level winds aren't the issue in the short-term. It's the lack of low-level convergence that is and will continue to be a problem.

[lonelymike]

look at the shear in the Gulf

[Florida1118]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.