ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Vortex]

Now that we have a well defined center and very deep convection -80C firing right over the center we should see the pressures begin to fall more rapidly. Very possible were talking Paula this time Sunday...These type of systems are notorious for their ability to spin up very quickly over the western carribean ...

[cycloneye]

They just updated the 18z best track position and they have it moving 325 degrees NW at 10kts.

Updated 18z Best Track

AL, 98, 2010100918, , BEST, 0, 135N, 808W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[SouthDadeFish]

The conservative NHC probably will only go 50% at 8pm, and bump it to red at 2 am I'm guessing.

Its not the NHC thats conservative, its whoever is writing the TWO. Certain forecasters do different things.

I understand that, but as a whole they side on the conservative. I don't have any problem with this though, as it prevents the windshield wiper effect.

[Florida1118]

The conservative NHC probably will only go 50% at 8pm, and bump it to red at 2 am I'm guessing.

Its not the NHC thats conservative, its whoever is writing the TWO. Certain forecasters do different things.

I understand that, but as a whole they side on the conservative. I don't have any problem with this though, as it prevents the windshield wiper effect.

I mean ya, they can put 100% on each one so ya i guess conservative...Their %s have always seemed right to me most of the time.

[Vortex]

They just updated the 18z best track position and they have it moving 325 degrees NW at 10kts.

Updated 18z Best Track

AL, 98, 2010100918, , BEST, 0, 135N, 808W, 25, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

That position is right under the burtsting(-85C) currently taking place..

[GCANE]

Looks like this is a high rain-rate cell and hence most likely a hot-tower.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[SouthDadeFish]

I didn't feel it should have been 30% earlier. It was conservative. Which is why now they're realistically putting it at 60%.

[btangy]

Some would argue that this is a depression already. Evidence of curved banding earlier on the W side and an obvious closed circulation that has grown tighter over the last 24 hours. Convection has been pretty sustained as well. Sometimes you just gotta look at observations and trends instead of the models.

[SFLcane]

Code red looks reasonable given the trends this evening/afternoon today....

18z HWRF barely developes this disturbance.Waiting on the 18z GFDL.

[jlauderdal]

I say no higher than 50% for 8pm. The warming cloud tops are give away that this is not a rapidly organizing system although the structure looks pretty good and is getting better. Perhaps the DMAX will be able to get it up to code red by tomorrow and maybe a TD by Monday.

60%

[jlauderdal]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 710 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

if stewart is on duty for the next one get ready for a 70, if avila is on duty look for a 60

[Vortex]

Code red looks reasonable given the trends this evening/afternoon today....

18z HWRF barely developes this disturbance.Waiting on the 18z GFDL.

and 4 runs ago HWRF had 130kt storm...this is one im going with real-time and much less on the models. The models have been anything but consistant in terms of development, track, or intensity...once we have a well defined cyclone hopefully well get better consistancy..

[KWT]

Yeah went to 60%, I'd have personally gone a little higher for the exact reasons btangy just stated but at least its a Code Red now...rightfully so IMO!

[SouthDadeFish]

Can we just get advisories started already? I mean I don't know what they are waiting for other than persistence?

[Zecadiabo]

any chance it could hit Yucatan?

[srainhoutx]

Some would argue that this is a depression already. Evidence of curved banding earlier on the W side and an obvious closed circulation that has grown tighter over the last 24 hours. Convection has been pretty sustained as well. Sometimes you just gotta look at observations and trends instead of the models.

I agree. Cyclogenesis has been underway for awhile now. My hunch is that it sit a bit in the SW Caribbean, but that is my opinion. The Upper Air pattern suggests the Upper Ridge is relaxing across the W GOM. Robust shortwave is rotating SE from the Great Basin. We will see if 98L makes the connection with that feature.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

It would be nice SDF, if trends continue as they have done today I'd imagine we'll have TD18 some point tomorrow, then the fun of tracking can start. Going to be quite a close call as to whether it hits CA or not but either way it should move into the GoH some point fairly soon.

[SFLcane]

Code red looks reasonable given the trends this evening/afternoon today....

18z HWRF barely developes this disturbance.Waiting on the 18z GFDL.

and 4 runs ago HWRF had 130kt storm...this is one im going with real-time and much less on the models. The models have been anything but consistant in terms of development, track, or intensity...once we have a well defined cyclone hopefully well get better consistancy..

Its pretty certain we'll squeeze another name out here but that strong westerly flow across sfl isn't going anywere anytime soon.

[Aquawind]

I tend to think the monsoon trough that started all of this activity is simply going to continue to pump out some confusion for the models in the western carribbean. I doubt 98L/Paula will wrap things up with continued slow movment and another system behind. There is alot of season left.