ATL: RICHARD - Remnant Low - Discussion

[wxman57]

Interesting the 18z TVCN consensus loops 99L and then turns it NW, clipping the NE Yucatan, the heads towards the GOMER with very little land interaction!!

That's because it's incorporating the GFDL track, the right outlier in the models. Most other models take it south then west, passing over or near Honduras. GFDL takes it northeast then west (just south of Cuba). HWRF into northern Belize. Consensus is right in between the various scenarios toward the northern Yucatan. Simple as that.

NHC generally splits the middle also, correct? So if 99L were classified we might see a track close to the TVCN consensus. Earlier TVCN runs buried 99L into CA, so maybe there is a change in the pattern for now?

Most of the time, they go with where they think the storm will track. When they're not sure, and when there's a lot of model divergence (possibly this case), then they may indicate very little movement. Maybe a stall then a clockwise loop. But I doubt they'd follow the current consensus run.

[Battlebrick]

35 kts SFMR.

[cycloneye]

35 kts SFMR.

That was rain contaminated. To be valid,it has to end with 00 at the right end of ob.

200530 1743N 08318W 9764 00291 0096 +209 //// 140009 012 035 009 01
200600 1742N 08318W 9767 00286 //// +205 //// 163013 014 035 012 01
200630 1740N 08318W 9774 00279 0093 +214 //// 148013 014 038 003 05

[wxman57]

I think we have a 30kt TD now. Not enough evidence to call it a TS.

[Vortex]

Interesting days ahead...the model guidance has been out in left field with the forecasted location of genesis. When you look back at guidance from last week/weekend and compare it to the latest imagery, surface obs, and recon VDM pretty large spread in the forecasted/actual evoloution of the center. GFDL while currently an outlier would certainly pose a risk for the E Gulf/FL region in the longer term. Climatology certainly would suggest Cuba/Sfl/Bahamas should keep a close eye on the evoloution of future Richard.

[fci]

I think it will be interesting to watch the evolution of this system since it very well could be the last of the season.
I discount the threat to the CONUS given what the Pros have been saying about the westeries and front up by Florida.

[cycloneye]

Decoded new VDM:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eight suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 20:12:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°27'N 83°29'W (17.45N 83.4833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 188 miles (303 km) to the SW (227°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 98° at 26kts (From the E at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NE (39°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 308m (1,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:50:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NNE (27°) from the flight level center

[wxman57]

Nope, not quite there yet:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
440 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

[SouthDadeFish]

NHC seem to be very picky this year.... I really wanted to see a cone and discussion from them on this one.

[Vortex]

im sure any increase in organized convection near the center this evening will lead to initiating advisories at 11pm

[MGC]

Not surprise NHC did not upgrade as there need to be more convection near the center......center could dissipate soon if convection does not redevelop near the CC. Conditions do appear quite favorable for a TC to form.....I'm thinking 70% is a bit low......MGC

[SouthDadeFish]

Richard will be a much bigger storm than Paula. Once convection starts to go over the center this should help tighten the pressure gradient.

[Vortex]

If future Richard becomes strong and is still meandering around the NW carribean in 5-6 days then I think it could become a concern for points N and E middle to end of next week...The ridge will strengthen across the SE states this weekend into early next but as we head into the middle/end of next week we should see the progression of a front heading east from across the plains and the ridge becoming more displaced to the east..This in theory would allow any TC near the yucatan/nw carribean to be drawn N/NE...

[CourierPR]

I think it will be interesting to watch the evolution of this system since it very well could be the last of the season.
I discount the threat to the CONUS given what the Pros have been saying about the westeries and front up by Florida.

Given the fact that this system hasn't behaved as the models predicted, I'm not discounting anything.

[Vortex]

NWS Miami:


SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE OVER EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. BOTH, GFS AND NAM, STILL SHOW THIS FEATURE DRAWING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIB AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BOTH MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN POPS WITH NAM NOW BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH
WL NOT GO WITH THE HIGH POPS THAT BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING, WL
AT LEAST INCREASE POPS TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY IN SOME PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE

[Sanibel]

It needs to burst. I think it is drawing too much dry air down into its west quadrant. Too soon after Paula?


Too weak.

[HURAKAN]

Richard could be 24 hours away

[Weatherfreak000]

Finally another to send to the prestigious "R" club

[HURAKAN]

Finally another to send to the prestigious "R" club

Roxanne, Rita and potentially, Richard. Very small club.

[latitude_20]

Noticed recon managed to capture some 1008mb readings on one of their last passes before returning.