ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Ntxwx]

This thing is coming together in a hurry...its moving into the anticyclone area as opposed to away from it.


Definitely am not discounting it intensifying rapidly.

What are you basing this on? Nothing this system has done so far has been "in a hurry".

That it's moving into a more favorable area which is condusive for development.

[BigA]

Sustained winds at 25kt gusts to 31 at buoy 42057 to the northeast of the low.

[SoupBone]

This thing is coming together in a hurry...its moving into the anticyclone area as opposed to away from it.


Definitely am not discounting it intensifying rapidly.

What are you basing this on? Nothing this system has done so far has been "in a hurry".

Basing this only on the current satellite trends, the fact the pro mets were proclaiming development for today, the sst's and the anticyclone.

I understand that and agree but what part of this makes you think it's "intensifying rapidly"? I just don't see it.

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

The vorticity continues to deepen

[I-wall]

I'm not at all sold on 93L. Still looks pretty bad to me. The upper level high is staying in front of 93L creating constant shear.

Please, tell us more.

Just an observation I made earlier today based on what I was seeing. I'm not a pro at this, so take what I say with a grain of salt.

[MGC]

If 93L is not a TD it is very close. Considering its recent organization trend a TD is likely this afternoon or tonight......MGC

[antonlsu]

Deep convection, she is blowing up!

[Brent]

If 93L is not a TD it is very close. Considering its recent organization trend a TD is likely this afternoon or tonight......MGC

Yeah, it's very close either way and just a matter of time.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hopefully this doesn't deepen quickly, or a more northerly path would be likely...and pose a greater threat to the oil spill area.

[cycloneye]

IMO,to find a true west wind,they may have to go more south and that includes Honduras so permission has to be granted by the goverment to allow the mission to enter Honduran air space.But that is my take only.

[SunnyThoughts]

Maybe Recon will hang around out there until they find the true center..so the models can get a better handle on it. I don't see how it can't be now..or at least within a few hours...become a depression looking at that deep convection.

[HURAKAN]

34 knots measured the SFMR ... if we find a center, we have Alex

[I-wall]

34 knots measured the SFMR ... if we find a center, we have Alex

Based on the latest recon data, do you think they will find a center?

[gboudx]

Coming out of lurker-mode.

Dr. Jeff Masters is on WWL radio out of New Orleans. He said recon hasn't found strong enough west wind. If they stay another couple hours, they may find it and could upgrade. He said that he believes its more of a western Gulf(read Tx/Mx) threat. But obviously won't know until it actually develops. He's hanging on thru the break. If he says anything interesting, I'll update.

[HURAKAN]

34 knots measured the SFMR ... if we find a center, we have Alex

Based on the latest recon data, do you think they will find a center?

At the moment? No. In a few hours? Yes

[thetruesms]

34 knots measured the SFMR ... if we find a center, we have Alex

Given the flight level winds in the area, the fact that it was also the only SFMR measurement above 30 knots, and the distance from where the center is/will be, I think they'd probably hold off on that for the moment.

[MGC]

Dr. Jeff Masters is on WWL out of New Orleans currently. They are talking tropics....MGC

http://www.wwl.com

[Weatherfreak14]

Well hi everyone, I havent posted in over a year I think and I have still been lurking but, i've been soo busy with being here at University of Oklahoma studying for a Met major.

Besides that point, It seems as of this moment, that the center is still pretty elongated, but I do think within the next 12 to 24 hrs that the low should start to wrap up and convection continue to blossom. I think this could continue to then strengthen a little more before it hits the Yucatan Pen. And with the latest trends and with Surface and Midlevel analysis across the US and Mexico.. I think the latest trends could be a more right track than models once thought.. We shall see!

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic!