ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Dean4Storms]

With its satellite appearance, pressure and winds sustained over 35mph there has to be a west wind somewhere.

[RL3AO]

With its satellite appearance, pressure and winds sustained over 35mph there has to be a west wind somewhere.

Even if there is a west wind, its not a depression IMO. It certainly doesn't have a well defined closed LLC.

[Dean4Storms]

With its satellite appearance, pressure and winds sustained over 35mph there has to be a west wind somewhere.

Even if there is a west wind, its not a depression IMO. It certainly doesn't have a well defined closed LLC.

Huh? If it has a west sustained wind it has a closed circulation, it might be broad or very small but that along with it being a warm core system would make it a TC IMO.

[Air Force Met]

With its satellite appearance, pressure and winds sustained over 35mph there has to be a west wind somewhere.

Even if there is a west wind, its not a depression IMO. It certainly doesn't have a well defined closed LLC.

I disagree. You really can't tell if there is a well defined west wind or not...recon has only sampled the north part of the storm. I think if they would have gone another 30 miles south on the first pass they would have closed it off. There is strong NW flow over honduras so I imagine the low is fairly close to the coast.

[jasons2k]

I disagree. You really can't tell if there is a well defined west wind or not...recon has only sampled the north part of the storm. I think if they would have gone another 30 miles south on the first pass they would have closed it off. There is strong NW flow over honduras so I imagine the low is fairly close to the coast.

Just observing the movement of the low-level clouds I can pick-out on the visibles, that's what it looks like to me. It's wrapping-up but it's very close to the coast.

[tailgater]

Bouy 42057 last hr.
Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 180 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
winds and seas picking up.

[tolakram]

I made a statement above that intensity forecasts are still bad, probably should have used the word Horrible.

Here's Darby (now a cat 3) from the EPAC, second complete discussion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 11.5N 94.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 11.9N 95.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 12.4N 96.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1800Z 12.8N 98.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 25/0600Z 13.0N 99.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 26/0600Z 13.5N 101.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 27/0600Z 14.0N 101.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 28/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 45 KT

[Dean4Storms]

With its satellite appearance, pressure and winds sustained over 35mph there has to be a west wind somewhere.

Even if there is a west wind, its not a depression IMO. It certainly doesn't have a well defined closed LLC.

I disagree. You really can't tell if there is a well defined west wind or not...recon has only sampled the north part of the storm. I think if they would have gone another 30 miles south on the first pass they would have closed it off. There is strong NW flow over honduras so I imagine the low is fairly close to the coast.

I saw some obs showing west winds along the upper Nicaragua coast earlier, you could be right.

[Comanche]

wxman, you have been very quiet, what is your take? Are you leaning more mex/texmex or central gulf coast at this moment in time?

[Air Force Met]

I saw some obs showing west winds along the upper Nicaragua coast earlier, you could be right.

They are also finding a presusre of 1005 Mb with 21 kts...that means we have a pressure of at least 1004 mb...probably 1003 mb. It is hard for me to believe that we do not have a closed low somewhere with a 1003 mb pressure....especially given the fact we have 1007...1009 mb pressure around there. That is pretty much impossible meteorologically.

[tolakram]

Light almost west winds of 6 kts.

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83,they closed it?

[tailgater]

west winds found light but from the west on latest recon report. so will it classified and if so what?

[Air Force Met]

Light almost west winds of 6 kts.

They are west enough....they don't have to from 270.

[jasons2k]

wxman, you have been very quiet, what is your take? Are you leaning more mex/texmex or central gulf coast at this moment in time?

I think the pertinent question is, is anyone still leaning central gulf coast at this moment??

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83,they closed it?

I believe so at 16.5N 83.4W.

[x-y-no]

Yeah, this is looking like a closed but quite elongated low at this point.

Not sure if this was too late for calling it at 5pm, though ...

[Comanche]

wxman, you have been very quiet, what is your take? Are you leaning more mex/texmex or central gulf coast at this moment in time?

I think the pertinent question is, is anyone still leaning central gulf coast at this moment??

Ivanhater appears to have, based on posts. the quietness of the promets is killing me though!

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, this is looking like a closed but quite elongated low at this point.

Not sure if this was too late for calling it at 5pm, though ...

Probably too late. There would be a Special Advisory around 5:30 if they call it.

[bbadon]

The pro mets are all busy preparing their forecast.