ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[Ntxw]

^ Agreed. Has a better 'spin' look to it.

[Gustywind]

Look at those visible, Tomas is may be trying to make a nice comeback

[wxman57]

Recon heading east looking for the center. It's clear that the track will need to be revised significantly eastward, taking the center of Tomas over eastern Haiti/western DR vs. grazing western Haiti. Still means very heavy rain for Haiti and the DR starting tomorrow. I doubt Tomas could reach hurricane strength before moving over the island, though I wouldn't be surprised at anything Tomas does after the past 2 days.

[Aquawind]

Looks like a pretty solid reform..it will be interesting to see how quickly the core comes together.

[Ivanhater]

GFS develops another low in the Caribbean after Tomas that heads toward PR. Looks like a possible TS.

[Gustywind]

GFS develops another low in the Caribbean after Tomas that heads toward PR. Looks like a possible TS.

hope nothing happens !!!

[cycloneye]

GFS develops another low in the Caribbean after Tomas that heads toward PR. Looks like a possible TS.

Thank you for that heads up.I didn't look at the models this afternoon. If Tomas tracks more east,then Puerto Rico may get a bit more rain than what was expected.

[HURAKAN]

WNW winds

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone getting a lot closer to the LLC

[wxman57]

If there IS a new center, it's not at 75W. Recon found a wind shift along 74.5W. Extremely light wind over a large area. Could be a 15-20 kt TD with a broad center. Let's see what they find when they head a bit more to the north. They're along 14.2N now.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro coming in with a storm developing behind Tomas as well. I'm not sure if it splits off from Tomas, but I decided to make a topic about it in Talking tropics.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031753
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS RE-FORMING FARTHER NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 75.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[Vortex]

it sure is...

[cycloneye]

Decoded observation, not VDM:

TS force winds found.

Observation Time: Wednesday, 18:44Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 14.8N 73.9W
Location: 279 miles (448 km) to the SSW (202°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 340 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 140° at 41 knots (From the SE at ~ 47.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 22°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1004 mb (extrapolated)

[wxman57]

It's farther east than 75W. Looks like 74.5W from recon. Possibly 14.5-14.8N. Recon found FL winds 48 kts. SFMR winds flagged. Could have 35kt winds east of the new center, though.

[guyclaude08]

Is NHC gonna upgrade it to tropical storm since they find tropical storm force winds ???

[wxman57]

Is NHC gonna upgrade it to tropical storm since they find tropical storm force winds ???

I haven't seen any unflagged SFMR readings of TS winds yet, but it could be a TS now. If so, it's back to TS Tomas.

[margiek]

Yes it will definitely be upgraded back to TS based on flt-lvl winds.

Looks like recon has little interest in finding the center.

Actually they are targeting the intermediate advisory pos with a SW-NE pass, but you can bet your sweet bippy that the center is east of 75W (of course if they fly around much longer, it will be that far west).

[guyclaude08]

That was fast tomas is making a nice comeback.I think it could hit my country with a cat 1 oh God no I love the tropics but this year has been unfair to my country Haiti.

[margiek]

Yes it will definitely be upgraded back to TS based on flt-lvl winds.

Looks like recon has little interest in finding the center.

Actually they are targeting the intermediate advisory pos with a SW-NE pass, but you can bet your sweet bippy that the center is east of 75W (of course if they fly around much longer, it will be that far west).

And they missed the center (HDOB 27).

Gee I hope they get a good pass before the next advisory package has to go out (as in, very shortly).