ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Just did a loop of the recent images and there's a rotation under that towering cloud.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[tailgater]

Yeah it's tuck under and looks like it has a west wind but lets wait for RECON to confrim.

[Vortmax1]

That's an impressive first visible.
It's practically on Cuba this morning. That is if a possible center is located where Hurakan says it is. I certainly believe that is the place to look for one if there's one out there.



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 24N72W 18N75W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR IS OVER THE TROUGH DISPLACING CONVECTION TO MOSTLY NE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
71W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 69W-76W. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-12 KT. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[KWT]

Probably reformed towards the east into the deep convection, it'd explain why it may have looked like it hit the wall so to speak whilst infact the center has moved to the east towards the convection.

Westerlies at lower level would more established then yesterday though I'm not seeing anything that indicates a tight LLC...looks very flabbhy indeed...

[Pearl River]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Looking at the WV, it appears to my old diabetic eyes that the ULL is moving ssw during the last few frames. I wonder what effect that would have on the system if it does continue to move that way?

[HURAKAN]

wow, the circulation is very evident in the visible loops

[ronjon]

Is a center developing under the deepest convection on ihe north side? If so, that would be quite a jog to the north. Need VIS SAT and RECON to know for sure.

[Air Force Met]

Need a loop to see where the low level turning is, it maybe that the center has tucked in or its possibly gone totally poof...we'll have to see.

I think we have an LLC this morning. It's very weak...but I think once we string enough vis images together...it will be pretty obvious its not a wave any more...but a closed low. Looks to me to be near 21.8 / 74.0...right next to that convective burst. Its broad...but its better defined that it has been.

[Robjohn53]

When will we know what recon finds? And will is be this morning?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY IN
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE
ISLANDS OF ACKLINS AND GREAT INAGUA...AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

[KWT]

wow, the circulation is very evident in the visible loops

Yeah its quite obvious really there is something there just perhaps a little on the broad side.

The westerlies look far stronger though, looks like a classic sheared TD to me maybew even borderline TS in terms of presentation.

edit---AFM, yeah I can just make out slight motion to the south of the clouds just to the west of the convection.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm sick of reading aabout this wave. Rain tomorrow and Saturday. Wake me up when the season starts.

[sunnyday]

"A tropical depression or tropical storm could form at any time today?" Am I the only one who is surprised to hear that information? I thought the shear, etc. was going to keep down development. Does anyone here agree that we might get Bonnie today? Does SE FL seem somewhat out of the loop due to the southern movement?

[tailgater]

This is about where I think it is

[HURAKAN]

you can't miss the center

[SoldMayor]

So maybe we have 2 storms today/tomorrow

[HURAKAN]

Currently in Matthew Town, BF as of 2010-07-22 11:00 UTC:

Rain Shower 77°F / 25°C
Feels like 82°F / 28°C Humidity: 95%
Wind:W 9 mph
Pressure: 29.80 in.
Dewpoint: 75°F / 24°C
Hour-by-Hour
10-Day
Month

[gatorcane]

yes the center is quite evident in that image hurakan. So the ULL continues to dive SW and by later on today should see some light SE shear over the system. Not too bad, looks like Bonnie could be on her way by the later on today....

[KWT]

tailgater I agree with that placement more or less, you can see on the loops the clouds just to the west of the convection do tend to confirm that location.