ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[tomboudreau]

This outage is not affecting just the Hurricane Center website. Its affecting also the Storm Prediction Center website. Both pages have messages that say Due to power problems, expect missing or delayed products until further notice.

[cycloneye]

Also the atcf best track site is out.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Macrocane]

I don't know if it has something to do with it but I can't see the 18z GFS run in none of the sites where I usually see it.

[cycloneye]

I don't know if it has something to do with it but I can't see the 18z GFS run in none of the sites where I usually see it.

Yep, out too.

[HURAKAN]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I grew up in Bermuda, and KWT's post made me want to register and reply.

If there is one place that can handle a system of nearly any strength, its certainly Bermuda.

When the media breathlessly pants that impending super-hurricane-of-death has turned out to sea, we in Bermuda give a little sigh because "out to sea" typically means "right over Bermuda". But we also give a wry smile, because big ol' storms make us feel badass. When Fabian hit us in 2003, the eyewall passed over my house and we didn't even lose power. To be fair, the Category 4 storm caused some damage, but people still smile about it. The last job I worked in Bermuda was at a bank, and we didn't even close when Hurricane Bertha swept through in 2008. People just kept coming in with broken umbrellas.

So yeah, little Colin shouldn't cause too much trouble

Thanks for sharing that with us. Keep us informed as Colin passes close to Bermuda.

[KWT]

I've got the GFS site at the moment, well at least I did anyway for Vort.

Anyway Colin is plusing and waning really at the moment, probably holding steady at 40kts based on this.

[HURAKAN]

736
WTNT64 KNHC 052333
TCUAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL
STORM COLIN HAS STRENGTHENED...

AROUND 5 PM AST...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM COLIN HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...WHICH IS SOONER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THEREFORE AN
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY BY
8 PM AST. THIS WILL SUPERCEDE THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT.

NOTE: DUE TO NWS COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...NHC WEB PAGE AND
RECONNAISSANCE INFORMATION ARE UNABLE TO UPDATE.

SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 66.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN

[TheBurn]

[wxman57]

Shear may be dropping off a bit. Squalls are rotating to the north side of Colin. Could well become a hurricane tomorrow before shear picks up again once it passes Bermuda.

[Nimbus]

The LLC looked pretty well intact on that last sunset shot.

[Macrocane]

I was going to said that, it seems that convection is trying to wrap around the center and cloud tops are cooling again.

[KWT]

Interesting to see its actually strengthened, whilst the presentation is nearly the same there is a slight attempt to wrap round the convection onto the northern side.

Worth watching to see if the convection trying to wrap round strengthens further in the next few hours, could see it really trying to strengthen into Dmax...

plasticup, thats no problem, I remember reading about Fabian a little bit ago.

[CrazyC83]

Probably the TCU was because of the power issues, they had to release something to the public since they would otherwise be in the dark.

[KWT]

:uarrow: I was going to said that, it seems that convection is trying to wrap around the center and cloud tops are cooling again.

Yeah Dmax will be interesting, will be watching Bermuda radar very closely, esp if it tracks east of forecast as we'll get a good view.

It'll be real funny if we end up getting a hurricane from this, after all these death/its dead posts and how Colin represents how rubbish this season has been...perfect justice...

[JonathanBelles]

From Dr. Greg Forbes:

Lightning hit and took out all communications at the NWS World Weather Building in Camp Springs MD this afternoon. Normally all data goes through there and is then redistributed to the other NWS offices and the public. Lots of disruptions of that today.

[Ptarmigan]

Colin is the "Come Back Kid". Stronger than it was.

[CrazyC83]

From Dr. Greg Forbes:

Lightning hit and took out all communications at the NWS World Weather Building in Camp Springs MD this afternoon. Normally all data goes through there and is then redistributed to the other NWS offices and the public. Lots of disruptions of that today.

Wow, that sounds really serious. Things may be down for a while. At least we have the raw data feeds. Personally, with the extreme case, I would go beyond the required advisories, treat this as an extraordinary situation and issue 2-hourly advisories while a threat to Bermuda and 3-hourly advisories beyond that until things return to normal.

Back to Colin, if that 71 kt reading is valid, then 60 kt would be the correct intensity, but the pressure is FAR too high to support a near-hurricane and no other data (SFMR, satellite signature, dropsondes or other observations) warrants that.

[HURAKAN]

crazy, remember that Danny in 2003 was a 65 knot hurricane with a pressure of 1005 mb

[cycloneye]

Here is an update on the outage.

NOUS42 KWNO 052357
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP AVIATION WEATHER CENTER KANSAS CITY MO
2357 UTC THU AUG 05 2010

BACKUP OF THE SDM BY AWC HAS NOW BEEN TERMINATED. THE SDM IS NOW
AT THE SILVER SPRING BACKUP SITE. PLEASE CALL 301-713-0330 FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

SDM IS AWARE OF A PROBLEM WITH SOME SATELLITE DATA RECEPTION.
THIS IS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WALLOPS ISLAND FACILITY.

POWER HAS BEEN RESTORED TO THE WORLD WEATHER BUILDING BUT THEY
WANT TO MAKE SURE STABLE. SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO BE POWERED ON
WHEN THEYRE SURE.


ROETS/LEAD FORECASTER/AWC/NCEP

[KWT]

Back to Colin, if that 71 kt reading is valid, then 60 kt would be the correct intensity, but the pressure is FAR too high to support a near-hurricane and no other data (SFMR, satellite signature, dropsondes or other observations) warrants that.

Wow 71kts reading is certainly impressive, it probably justifies going upto 60kts to be fair even if the other obs don't really suggest it, these sorts of lopsided systems that have strong convection heading northwards tend to pull a few surprises.