ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[KWT]

Probably would spread some decent rains to SE Texas if that came off KFDM.

As I've said before I don't think there will be much of a practical difference in terms of our actual weather regardless of what this one does in terms of development.

[South Texas Storms]

kfdm is that just a low or a tc in that hpc map?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Just a Low. If it can get over water early this week then it could develop.

[KWT]

I suspect it stays as just a low overland but with all the features that you'd find in a strong depression probably in terms of weather.

[South Texas Storms]

fwiw 18z nam shows it strengthening just east of new orleans heading west at 78 hours.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I suspect it stays as just a low overland but with all the features that you'd find in a strong depression probably in terms of weather.

Correct.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

FWIW 18Z Nam keeps it around NOLA....High over West Texas keeps it east according to the NAM.

[South Texas Storms]

FWIW 18Z Nam keeps it around NOLA....High over West Texas keeps it east according to the NAM.

is that a reasonable scenario kfdm? or is the nam still having trouble with the tropical systems?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Could happen, wouldn't shock me but i'm leaning toward the EURO and GFS.

[MississippiWx]

Hey MsWx you're really masquerading as Brett Farve aren't ya When ya reporting to camp? Tell the world here on Storm2k Welcome!

LOL. How did you guess? As far as making it to camp, it's still too hot out there.

[KWT]

fwiw 18z nam shows it strengthening just east of new orleans heading west at 78 hours.

Interesting, its still looking like it may not quite make it to the Gulf, still going to be very wet though regardless!

[Ivanhater]

18z Nam

Brings it farther east before heading west..east of Apalachicola

[Weatherfreak000]

^^^


That could be a fairly significant event for us here. Does that have any additional model support?

[MississippiWx]

NAM has it in the Gulf enough to regenerate, similar to the GFS. The Euro 12z had it in the Gulf enough to regenerate it into a weak TS possibly. The models are being persistent on this event, even though I'm still not convinced. I think we just need to watch how far south it gets first before it starts its westward movement. If it starts moving west before getting completely offshore, then I don't think we'll have to worry about tropical development since the westward movement should stay westward around the south side of the ridge.

[MississippiWx]

^^^


That could be a fairly significant event for us here. Does that have any additional model support?

GFS, NAM, EURO, NOGAPS, GEM...

Lol. It has a lot of model support, though the others don't show 1004mb.

[MississippiWx]

From my Jackson, MS NWS Forecast Office...Area Forecast Discussion, Saturday Afternoon:

BACK TO OUR DEVELOPING SFC LOW...ALL FORECAST MODEL TAKE THE LOW
CENTER BACK OVER THE GULF AND HAVE IT TAKING ON TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BECOMES WARM CORE. THIS IS THE REASON MOST
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES WEST IN A VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IF THE SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP AS A TROPICAL
ENTITY...THEN THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS TO THE CWA.
ADDITIONALLY...UNTIL IT DEVELOPS...FORECAST MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE TROUBLE WITH TIMING AND ANY CONSISTENT TRACK. ATLEAST THERE IS
A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS AND WE HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE FEATURE BETWEEN TUE-WED. MOST OF THE
IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IF PERSISTENT
BANDS CAN DEVELOP AND TRAIN. ALSO...IF IT CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH...THEN
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO A POINT THAT CAN SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS SEEMS POSSIBLE ON WED AT THIS TIME.

[KWT]

Alot of rain there frim the NAM, flooding has to be a real concern here I feel, if the NAM came off could locally see even more then the 8 inches suggested by the HPC.

[Weatherfreak000]

I will say this. If this event comes to pass and we do get those 2 deep atlantic storms, we will be on good pace this season.

[Weeks Bay]

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TD 5 MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE LOW THAT WAS TD 5 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...EMERGING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OFF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN HUGS THE COAST AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD ON MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
HIGH...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP OVER WATER BUT IT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL AREAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PART OF THE AREA MAY BE REQUIRED ON LATER
FORECASTS. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND THE AREA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...HIGH TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM MAV/MET NUMBERS. /13

[Weeks Bay]

Im sorry my last post was from the mobile NWS,I wonder how it could be so different from Jackson NWS?