ATL : EX TOMAS - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah Cycloneye at least the winds won't cause too many problems even if modest strengthening will occur given the track its taking, but still the rains are a problem...

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Not a good looking IR image there gustywind, the convection is all over SW Haiti and there is alot more to come as well....

[cycloneye]

On visible image,you can see better the center exposed under the cirrus.

[crimi481]

That is one bizarre looking storm thingy. A moisture "pump" - unfortunately in direction of Haiti.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/bd-l.jpg

[Macrocane]

The look of Tomas at this moment reminds me to that of Nicole, lots of moisture but not very well organized.

[cycloneye]

Winds picking up a little. 39kts at flight level / 48kts at SFMR uncontaminated


182400 1649N 07556W 8434 01476 0017 +146 +027 137036 039 048 011 00

[Macrocane]

182230 1652N 07552W 8430 01488 0030 +138 +023 124021 028 050 016 00

50 kt SFMR uncontaminated as well

[CrazyC83]

45 kt would be my guess for the intensity still, thinking the highest SFMR readings are a bit too much given the flight-level winds. But maybe they are stronger at the surface?

[Macrocane]

That's another weird thing with this system the SFMR readings have been higher than the flight level winds, I don't know why.

[KWT]

Very interesting Cycloneye you can see the center quite nicely there getting sheared, and that moisture tail is a classic looking sheared system...

Going to get very wet in Haiti sadly...

[msbee]

report from Jamaica on stormcarib.com


Ready for Tomas

* By "Andre Marriott-Blake " <sean134 at msn.com>
* Date: Thu, 4 Nov 2010 18:01:30 +0000

Greetings all,
It's about 1 pm here in Jamaica...I am located in the coastal south eastern
municipality of Portmore ( a suburban town just west of Kingston). The
Government has ordered all schools in the eastern parishes of St. Thomas,
Portland, St. Mary, Kingston and St. Andrew closed due to the expected impact
of Tomas on the eastern end of Jamaica. Most non-essential services will stop
operation this afternoon. The state owned metropolitan bus service--- the
Jamaica Urban Transit Corporation (JUTC) will stop transit at 3 pm this
afternoon.
So far it has been mostly overcast with intermittent light showers... The air
is calm...too calm even... Citizens seem prepared for Tomas...not overly
worried though... In the eastern most parish of St. Thomas there has been
reports of wind gusting just below tropical storm force...
I pray for our neighbour state of Haiti in this time who may experience the
worst of Tomas...what more can they take?? Jamaica's infrastructure for the
most part can withstand the effects of Tomas but with many Haitian's still
living under tents one can only imagine the horror that this weekend has in
store for them... At times like this while we must be mindful of our own
impending danger we can't forget our less fortunate neighbours who have already
experienced so much horror... We in Jamaica pray for the safety of not only
ourselves but our neighbours in Haiti...
Sent from my BlackBerry® device from Digicel

[CrazyC83]

I don't see it getting too bad in Jamaica based on the track and intensity. But Haiti...totally different story, sadly.

[crimi481]

Looks like main center moving s.w. -again. Mid level Ridge blocking north path -for now?

[KWT]

Yep without a doubt it will be different for Haiti, esp as the systems main convection is right over Haiti, esp as the system starts to slightly lose longitude.

[wxman57]

I don't believe there are any TS winds west of Tomas now, so Jamaica may only see winds 20-35 mph as it passes. Not much rain west of the track, either.

[cycloneye]

First Decoded VDM of present mission from Air Force plane.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 18:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 18:31:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°27'N 76°08'W (16.45N 76.1333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (185 km) to the SSE (158°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,411m (4,629ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (33°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 39kts (From the SE at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NNE (31°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:24:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 30kts (~ 34.5mph) in the southwest quadrant at 18:47:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SW (225°) from the flight level center

[Canerecon]

Hurricane Hunters find surface winds of 57.5 mph.

[Canerecon]

Latest Jamaican radar image

[plasticup]

45 kt would be my guess for the intensity still, thinking the highest SFMR readings are a bit too much given the flight-level winds. But maybe they are stronger at the surface?

Given how displaced the convection is, there may not be much flight level wind over the surface center.