ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

92L in the Gulf

[Ivanhater]

And strengthening

[HouTXmetro]

nightmare scenario for northern gulf coast with the oil

[SouthFLTropics]

That is definitely not a good scenario...If 92L hasn't noticed our nation is having a bit of a problem in the Gulf right now and 92L needs to either die or head out to the North Atlantic.

SFT

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.7 59.5 285./12.0
6 16.3 60.9 292./14.7
12 16.6 62.0 285./11.1
18 16.7 63.0 279./ 9.6
24 17.5 64.1 307./12.9
30 18.1 65.1 299./10.9
36 18.6 66.0 299./10.4
42 18.6 67.0 267./ 9.9
48 18.4 67.9 262./ 8.6
54 18.5 68.6 277./ 6.1
60 18.9 69.2 303./ 7.1
66 19.5 69.7 317./ 7.1
72 20.3 70.4 319./11.0
78 20.9 71.2 305./ 9.5
84 21.8 72.0 322./11.6
90 22.7 72.5 331./10.5
96 23.3 73.1 315./ 8.1
102 24.1 73.3 349./ 8.0
108 24.6 73.9 309./ 7.9
114 25.3 74.0 350./ 6.8
120 25.6 74.4 314./ 4.6
126 25.9 75.1 291./ 7.1

[ROCK]

JB was talking about this on Hannity yesterday. He said storms could disperse the oil even more and might be a good thing.....he did say however that a storm surge would really push the oil more inland than it already is. He cited the 79 spill off of MX and the TC's that help dilute the oil....

anyway its just a theory....and its JB...

[ROCK]

0Z GFDL is in...takes it up the east side of FL.....not seeing that to verify...Waiting on the HWRF to come in.....the 0Z CMC takes it into the WGOM....

[Ivanhater]

Canadian

[ROCK]

the 0z HWRF is in...takes it thru the keys...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

GFDL, like rock says seems off the wall on track

[ROCK]

yeah Ivan, I thought the GFDL was ran off the GFS...talk about different tracks...

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

SHIPS went up in intensity

504

WHXX01 KWBC 180622

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0622 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100618 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100618 0600 100618 1800 100619 0600 100619 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.1N 60.6W 16.7N 63.5W 16.9N 66.5W 17.5N 69.3W

BAMD 16.1N 60.6W 16.5N 61.9W 16.8N 63.2W 17.0N 64.6W

BAMM 16.1N 60.6W 16.6N 62.7W 17.1N 64.8W 17.4N 66.8W

LBAR 16.1N 60.6W 16.3N 62.7W 16.8N 65.3W 17.2N 68.1W

SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS

DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100620 0600 100621 0600 100622 0600 100623 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.4N 71.8W 17.8N 76.6W 17.9N 80.7W 17.9N 83.9W

BAMD 17.2N 66.2W 18.4N 69.1W 20.3N 72.2W 22.4N 75.2W

BAMM 17.6N 68.8W 18.3N 72.2W 19.4N 75.3W 21.1N 78.2W

LBAR 17.8N 70.9W 19.5N 75.5W 22.2N 79.0W 23.5N 81.3W

SHIP 31KTS 36KTS 45KTS 55KTS

DSHP 31KTS 29KTS 41KTS 33KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 58.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 55.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

[KWT]

I'm really starting to get interested with this one now, I'd imagine its going to have a real shot in the NW.Caribbean/E.Gulf, the models so seem to suggest there will be a window of lower shear as the jet stream buckles southwards deeper into the Caribbean in about 4-5 days which is the time that 92L will be into the region.

[xironman]

HWRF shows a depression in the straits. GDFL loses it.

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

949
WHXX01 KWBC 181307
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1307 UTC FRI JUN 18 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100618 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100618  1200   100619  0000   100619  1200   100620  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.1N  62.2W   16.4N  65.4W   16.8N  68.9W   17.2N  71.7W
BAMD    16.1N  62.2W   16.5N  63.6W   16.8N  65.0W   17.1N  66.5W
BAMM    16.1N  62.2W   16.5N  64.5W   16.9N  66.9W   17.2N  69.1W
LBAR    16.1N  62.2W   16.4N  64.5W   16.8N  67.2W   17.2N  69.8W
SHIP        25KTS          24KTS          24KTS          26KTS
DSHP        25KTS          24KTS          24KTS          26KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100620  1200   100621  1200   100622  1200   100623  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.2N  74.6W   17.9N  79.7W   18.2N  84.1W   18.0N  87.8W
BAMD    17.4N  68.1W   18.6N  71.0W   20.3N  74.0W   22.1N  76.7W
BAMM    17.5N  71.2W   18.3N  74.7W   19.4N  77.9W   20.6N  80.6W
LBAR    17.6N  72.6W   19.3N  77.0W   22.0N  80.5W   23.4N  83.0W
SHIP        28KTS          32KTS          42KTS          58KTS
DSHP        28KTS          31KTS          41KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.1N LONCUR =  62.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  16.1N LONM12 =  59.3W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  15.8N LONM24 =  57.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  120NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Wow! SHIP really ramps up in 120 hours.

[clfenwi]

That SHIPS output assumes an ongoing concern, that per the BAMM forecast, stays almost entirely off-shore for the duration:



[/URL]

[xironman]

Compare the shear situation from today vs. Monday

[ronjon]

12Z Euro develops a weak low futher south in the western caribbean from 92L and brings it into the southern GOM.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2010061812!!/