ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Been focused on 95L

GFDL MUCH FURTHER NORTH

[redfish1]

will the models show intensity this far out?

[KWT]

Interesting that the GFDL strengthens this system inland, I'd imagine due to it developing post-tropical characteristics but its pretty interesting to see what the GFDL does.

One of the mosr easterly of the models again, very interesting to see how often that has been the case.

[ROCK]

will the models show intensity this far out?

model can speculate but really there is no way to predict intensity. Sure you can narrow it down some given some factors...but no one can forecast IR...

[redfish1]

the models are in pretty good agreement as it making landfall in between the middle to upper texas coast?

[ROCK]

the models are in pretty good agreement as it making landfall in between the middle to upper texas coast?

not really a good agreement when we dont have a center to track....we are watching a blob for evidence of a LLC and banding features...none of which are happening now. MX to FL is my current cone...

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 060100
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0100 UTC TUE JUL 6 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100706 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100706 0000 100706 1200 100707 0000 100707 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 86.1W 21.3N 87.8W 23.1N 89.6W 24.7N 91.4W
BAMD 19.6N 86.1W 20.6N 87.1W 21.7N 88.3W 22.6N 89.5W
BAMM 19.6N 86.1W 20.9N 87.3W 22.3N 88.7W 23.6N 90.3W
LBAR 19.6N 86.1W 20.9N 87.4W 22.4N 89.1W 23.9N 90.9W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 35KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100708 0000 100709 0000 100710 0000 100711 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.2N 93.4W 28.4N 96.9W 29.8N 99.7W 30.7N 102.2W
BAMD 23.3N 91.1W 24.5N 94.7W 25.3N 98.4W 26.0N 102.9W
BAMM 24.8N 92.1W 26.8N 95.8W 28.2N 98.9W 29.2N 101.7W
LBAR 25.4N 92.8W 27.9N 95.8W 29.5N 97.9W 30.3N 98.7W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 59KTS
DSHP 43KTS 51KTS 33KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.6N LONCUR = 86.1W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 18.2N LONM12 = 84.6W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 83.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Nederlander]

not sure how much rain my friends in central texas got from Alex but Ill be glad to send this one your way if you need more.. we got soaked here in houston.. im not bullish on this developing much.. looked so good yesterday but today it all but fell apart.. would be interested to see the shear conditions in the gulf..

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

00z NAM

[ROCK]

I have seen some RI before that was amazing....Humberto, Alicia come to mind...This could be a sleeper TS that does what most METS are afraid of. RI right before the landfall. Jumping catageories....that is what I worry about....

[RachelAnna]

not sure how much rain my friends in central texas got from Alex but Ill be glad to send this one your way if you need more.. we got soaked here in houston.. im not bullish on this developing much.. looked so good yesterday but today it all but fell apart.. would be interested to see the shear conditions in the gulf..

Scary thing is that even if doesn't develop into anything and the system follows current models, it looks like it could still be a HUGE rain maker for us in the Houston area. Lots of rain already the past few days, I don't think we're ready for another big round of rain whether it's tropical or not.

[Ivanhater]

00z canadian shows no development...just heavy rain for SE Louisiana, MS, AL, and FL panhandle

[Wx_Warrior]

Nothing much to see on the AWESOME operational gfs 0z

[Ivanhater]

Euro drops development

[cycloneye]

Wow,what happened that all the models dropped it?

[Roxy]

the models are in pretty good agreement as it making landfall in between the middle to upper texas coast?

The good news about that is that it never goes where the models say a week out.

Personally though, I'd take more rain and cooler temps.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 061302
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1302 UTC TUE JUL 6 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100706 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100706 1200 100707 0000 100707 1200 100708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 87.0W 22.1N 89.0W 23.8N 91.2W 25.5N 93.3W
BAMD 20.1N 87.0W 21.1N 88.5W 22.0N 89.9W 22.8N 91.7W
BAMM 20.1N 87.0W 21.6N 88.7W 22.9N 90.6W 24.2N 92.6W
LBAR 20.1N 87.0W 21.3N 88.3W 22.6N 90.0W 24.2N 91.9W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100708 1200 100709 1200 100710 1200 100711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.9N 95.3W 29.1N 98.8W 30.6N 101.8W 32.6N 103.6W
BAMD 23.4N 93.6W 24.3N 97.6W 24.8N 102.1W 25.9N 106.6W
BAMM 25.3N 94.6W 27.0N 98.7W 28.1N 102.6W 29.5N 106.0W
LBAR 25.6N 93.9W 27.9N 97.1W 29.7N 98.5W 30.4N 98.9W
SHIP 52KTS 58KTS 61KTS 60KTS
DSHP 47KTS 36KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.1N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 19.2N LONM12 = 85.7W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 84.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[KWT]

Looks like the models give it 48hrs over water to develop once its past the Yucatan, probably just enough time to do something but we will see...

[Dean4Storms]

I think the models are unreliable with this system. The lowest area of pressure is now well into the south central GOM passing over the NE tip of the Yucatan yesterday.